| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 12.2k | 81.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $11.4k | +$1,416 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 6,742 | 89¢ | 94.5¢ | $6,371 | +$371 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 6,125 | 96.6¢ | 97.7¢ | $5,984 | +$70 | +$0.56 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 5,656 | 91.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $5,118 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,435 | 91.8¢ | 85.5¢ | $4,647 | −$343 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,800 | 73¢ | 86.5¢ | $4,152 | +$648 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,783 | 84.5¢ | 93.5¢ | $2,602 | +$250 | +$24 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 49.7k | 9.4¢ | 4.9¢ | $2,435 | −$2,249 | −$288 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 2,667 | 90¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,387 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 2,423 | 84.1¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,169 | +$132 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,199 | 91¢ | 97.9¢ | $2,152 | +$151 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,818 | 90¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,682 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,650 | 83¢ | 95.4¢ | $1,574 | +$205 | $0 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | No | 1,796 | 81.1¢ | 78.5¢ | $1,410 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Yes | 1,710 | 87.4¢ | 76.8¢ | $1,312 | −$182 | $0 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 1,375 | 86.4¢ | 92¢ | $1,265 | +$77 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 1,650 | 63.4¢ | 71.4¢ | $1,177 | +$131 | −$5.22 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 1,230 | 88.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,125 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 1,714 | 51.2¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,071 | +$194 | −$31 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 1,311 | 83.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,055 | −$44 | −$4.80 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,147 | 55.4¢ | 85¢ | $975 | +$340 | +$179 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 1,418 | 66¢ | 62.5¢ | $886 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 837 | 83.4¢ | 93.5¢ | $783 | +$84 | +$59 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | No | 720 | 91¢ | 97.5¢ | $702 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 782 | 85¢ | 77.5¢ | $606 | −$58 | +$0.55 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,979 | 37.3¢ | 6¢ | $539 | −$2,813 | −$27 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? | Yes | 632 | 71¢ | 79.5¢ | $502 | +$54 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | No | 491 | 87¢ | 97.5¢ | $479 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 750 | 66¢ | 54.5¢ | $409 | −$86 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 879 | 23.7¢ | 46.5¢ | $409 | +$201 | $0 | |
| Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? | Yes | 465 | 85¢ | 86.5¢ | $402 | +$6.97 | +$0.15 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 1,331 | 39.4¢ | 29.5¢ | $393 | −$132 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 379 | 41¢ | 100¢ | $379 | +$224 | +$65 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 441 | 60.4¢ | 83.5¢ | $369 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 678 | 69.2¢ | 53.5¢ | $363 | −$107 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 3,118 | 11¢ | 11.5¢ | $359 | +$16 | −$5.95 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 385 | 93.4¢ | 91.5¢ | $353 | −$7.23 | −$9.03 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 1,436 | 40.4¢ | 24.5¢ | $352 | −$228 | +$37 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 474 | 67¢ | 74¢ | $351 | +$33 | +$8.27 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 447 | 80.5¢ | 78.5¢ | $351 | −$8.78 | $0 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 388 | 82.8¢ | 90¢ | $349 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,632 | 5¢ | 7.5¢ | $347 | +$116 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 320 | 91¢ | 95.8¢ | $307 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12.0k | 5¢ | 2.6¢ | $306 | −$294 | −$160 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 2,640 | 23.1¢ | 11.5¢ | $304 | −$306 | $0 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,950 | 14.5¢ | 15.1¢ | $293 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1,535 | 20.1¢ | 19.1¢ | $292 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 1,886 | 16.6¢ | 15.5¢ | $292 | −$20 | −$1.50 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 326 | 89¢ | 86.5¢ | $282 | −$8.14 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 333 | 78¢ | 84¢ | $280 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,072 | 32.6¢ | 25.5¢ | $273 | −$76 | $0 | |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 365 | 67¢ | 71.5¢ | $261 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | 269 | 89.4¢ | 95.2¢ | $256 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,845 | 19.4¢ | 8.5¢ | $242 | −$310 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 242 | 13¢ | 99.5¢ | $241 | +$209 | +$18 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 267 | 88¢ | 89.5¢ | $239 | +$4.00 | +$8.78 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 246 | 95.9¢ | 96¢ | $236 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 233 | 83.4¢ | 97.6¢ | $228 | +$33 | −$1.23 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | No | 4,057 | 7.1¢ | 5.6¢ | $225 | −$61 | +$7.85 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? | No | 735 | 30¢ | 30.5¢ | $224 | +$3.67 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 376 | 62¢ | 59.5¢ | $224 | −$9.40 | −$2.03 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 220 | 85¢ | 96.8¢ | $213 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 220 | 89.8¢ | 96.3¢ | $212 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | No | 220 | 90¢ | 94¢ | $207 | +$8.80 | $0 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 220 | 90¢ | 94¢ | $207 | +$8.80 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,141 | 17.5¢ | 18¢ | $205 | +$5.13 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | No | 221 | 85¢ | 92.5¢ | $205 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 233 | 83¢ | 84.5¢ | $197 | +$3.50 | +$8.62 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 1,760 | 40.1¢ | 11¢ | $194 | −$512 | −$8.15 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 962 | 31¢ | 19.5¢ | $188 | −$111 | −$1.40 | |
| Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 336 | 37.1¢ | 54.5¢ | $183 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | No | 411 | 55.7¢ | 43.5¢ | $179 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat? | Yes | 5,292 | 3¢ | 3.3¢ | $172 | +$13 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 357 | 76.5¢ | 47.2¢ | $169 | −$105 | −$110 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 183 | 84¢ | 87.5¢ | $160 | +$6.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 240 | 63¢ | 66.5¢ | $160 | +$8.40 | −$0.13 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 479 | 37.2¢ | 32.5¢ | $156 | −$23 | −$23 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 194 | 65.4¢ | 79.5¢ | $154 | +$27 | +$4.23 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 174 | 80.9¢ | 88.5¢ | $154 | +$13 | +$18 | |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 191 | 68.2¢ | 80¢ | $153 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 406 | 24.7¢ | 37.5¢ | $152 | +$52 | +$5.46 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-08 House seat? | Yes | 5,513 | 3¢ | 2.7¢ | $149 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 164 | 63¢ | 90¢ | $148 | +$44 | $0 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 161 | 74¢ | 89.5¢ | $144 | +$25 | +$1.81 | |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 90¢ | 88.5¢ | $133 | −$2.25 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? | No | 240 | 47¢ | 53.5¢ | $128 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | No | 172 | 48¢ | 74¢ | $127 | +$45 | +$2.40 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | No | 144 | 47¢ | 82.5¢ | $119 | +$51 | +$29 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 127 | 63¢ | 88.9¢ | $113 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 264 | 41¢ | 42.5¢ | $112 | +$3.96 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | No | 117 | 79.7¢ | 89¢ | $104 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 81¢ | 97.7¢ | $98 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | No | 176 | 47¢ | 54.5¢ | $96 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 168 | 77.4¢ | 56.3¢ | $94 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 1,249 | 15¢ | 7.5¢ | $94 | −$94 | −$37 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 396 | 31.7¢ | 22.5¢ | $89 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | Yes | 296 | 36.4¢ | 28.5¢ | $84 | −$23 | −$67 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 186 | 58¢ | 44¢ | $82 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 101 | 42¢ | 77.5¢ | $78 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,200 | 7¢ | 6.5¢ | $78 | −$6.00 | $0 | |