sharpside
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Traders/Rank #7,551

TonyWall2179

0x43d…54a7
PoliticsSportCultureWeatherOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$129vol $257k
PnL 30d−$23gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$10win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate50.6%adj 50.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1,238cash n/a
Positions44 / 350open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$298below peak −$1,511Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale30
Adjusted win rateraw 50.6% · shrunk toward 50%26
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 44

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins68649¢50¢$343+$6.86$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic25760¢95.5¢$245+$91$0
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri LankaAfghanistan37353¢50¢$187−$11$0
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?No14434¢100¢$144+$95−$0.97
Mid-America Christian Evangels vs. Campbell Fighting CamelsCampbell Fighting Camels27785¢50¢$139−$97$0
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?Yes41940¢28.5¢$119−$48$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI84044¢4.5¢$38−$332$0
Anduril IPO before 2027?Yes58416¢2.4¢$14−$79+$45
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes7078¢5¢$3.50−$51$0
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?No365.4¢100¢$3.00+$1.04+$122
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No296.9¢100¢$2.00+$0.06$0
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?No180¢93.5¢$0.94+$0.14$0
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?Yes111.6¢1.5¢$0.01−$0.10+$6.80
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?Yes83854¢0¢$0−$453$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?No71945¢0¢$0−$324$0
Will ohnePixel win the PogChamps chess tournament?Yes64729¢0¢$0−$188$0
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3AM ETDown57251¢0¢$0−$292$0
Olympiacos B.C. vs. FenerbahceFenerbahce47169.7¢0¢$0−$328$0
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Grand Canyon AntelopesSan Diego State Aztecs36935¢0¢$0−$129$0
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?No36087¢0¢$0−$313$0
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 9PM ETUp32151¢0¢$0−$164$0
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,700,000 and 1,900,000?No23344¢0¢$0−$103$0
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes17336¢0¢$0−$62$0
Will Trump say "Inflation" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?Yes15214¢0¢$0−$21−$26
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes14713¢0¢$0−$19$0
US national XRP reserve in 2025?Yes1431.1¢0¢$0−$1.57$0
Julie Masino out as Cracker Barrel CEO in 2025? Yes1172.5¢0¢$0−$2.92$0
David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?Yes1141.2¢0¢$0−$1.37$0
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?No10419¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No8436¢0¢$0−$30−$102
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?No7223.8¢0¢$0−$17+$0.74
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)Yes6749¢0¢$0−$33$0
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes6155¢0¢$0−$34$0
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes587¢0¢$0−$4.06$0
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?Yes552.4¢0¢$0−$1.33−$0.57
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?Yes4814¢0¢$0−$6.72−$1.45
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?Yes398¢0¢$0−$3.12−$0.52
Will Dana White attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes2516¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
Will NFT #2042 win the Based trading competition?Yes234¢0¢$0−$0.92$0
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during meeting with Netanyahu?Yes2030¢0¢$0−$6.00−$108
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes1946¢0¢$0−$8.74$0
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes564¢0¢$0−$3.20$0
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?No353¢0¢$0−$1.59−$2.16
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?Yes236¢0¢$0−$0.72−$18

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?25¢10$2.5051%33
SELL NoWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?69¢810$55951%33
SELL NoWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?69¢10$6.9051%33
SELL NoWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?69¢101$7051%33
BUY NoWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?69¢921$63551%33
SELL NoWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?27¢949$25651%33
SELL NoWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?43¢997$42951%33
BUY NoWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?55¢997$54851%33
BUY Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins49¢686$33651%33
BUY NoWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?27¢949$25651%33
SELL NoWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?58¢34$2051%33
SELL NoWill Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?76¢152$11651%33
SELL NoWill Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?75¢256$19251%33
SELL NoWill Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?53¢624$33151%33
SELL NoWill Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?53¢1,196$63451%33
SELL NoWill Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?73¢288$21051%33
BUY NoWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?88¢34$3051%33
BUY NoWill Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?43¢1,820$78351%33
BUY NoWill Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?83.5¢696$58151%33
SELL No9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?87¢10$8.7051%33