| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 5,298 | 80.8¢ | 95.1¢ | $5,039 | +$756 | −$5.23 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,583 | 85.7¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,468 | +$254 | +$2.38 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,400 | 96.7¢ | 97.1¢ | $2,330 | +$9.60 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 2,315 | 85.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $2,164 | +$189 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 2,055 | 84¢ | 89.5¢ | $1,839 | +$112 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,818 | 90¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,663 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 1,752 | 85.7¢ | 86.5¢ | $1,515 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,489 | 47.1¢ | 92¢ | $1,370 | +$669 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,544 | 84.6¢ | 88.5¢ | $1,366 | +$61 | +$25 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 1,230 | 88.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,125 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 91¢ | 97.8¢ | $977 | +$67 | $0 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 1,027 | 86.9¢ | 92¢ | $945 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.4k | 9¢ | 3.3¢ | $740 | −$1,274 | −$0.27 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 800 | 88¢ | 90.5¢ | $724 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | No | 720 | 91¢ | 97.4¢ | $701 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 607 | 86.2¢ | 89.1¢ | $540 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20.8k | 2.3¢ | 2.6¢ | $530 | +$60 | +$3.38 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 837 | 51.2¢ | 62.5¢ | $523 | +$94 | +$0.96 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 86¢ | 90.5¢ | $453 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 424 | 71.9¢ | 90.5¢ | $383 | +$79 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 536 | 58.3¢ | 71.3¢ | $382 | +$69 | +$4.14 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 483 | 78.2¢ | 77.5¢ | $374 | −$3.19 | +$100 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 745 | 44¢ | 41.5¢ | $309 | −$19 | +$0.10 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 2,640 | 23.1¢ | 11.5¢ | $304 | −$306 | $0 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,912 | 14.4¢ | 15.1¢ | $288 | +$12 | −$1.23 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 340 | 66.2¢ | 83.5¢ | $284 | +$59 | +$54 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,867 | 27¢ | 15.2¢ | $283 | −$221 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 313 | 73.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $264 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 644 | 49¢ | 37.5¢ | $242 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 246 | 95.9¢ | 96¢ | $236 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 240 | 93.2¢ | 94.5¢ | $227 | +$3.12 | $0 | |
| Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 264 | 78¢ | 84.5¢ | $223 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | No | 223 | 87¢ | 97.5¢ | $218 | +$23 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | No | 3,728 | 5.5¢ | 5.8¢ | $214 | +$9.35 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 243 | 84¢ | 86.5¢ | $210 | +$6.07 | $0 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,036 | 32.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $202 | −$134 | −$1.62 | |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? | Yes | 240 | 90¢ | 84¢ | $202 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? | No | 201 | 90¢ | 98.1¢ | $197 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 215 | 87¢ | 88.5¢ | $190 | +$3.23 | +$0.18 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 206 | 92.4¢ | 92¢ | $190 | −$0.77 | +$47 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 184 | 41¢ | 100¢ | $184 | +$109 | +$30 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 1,458 | 9.4¢ | 12.5¢ | $182 | +$44 | +$21 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 213 | 73.9¢ | 82.5¢ | $175 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat? | Yes | 5,262 | 3¢ | 3.3¢ | $171 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 3,000 | 7¢ | 5.5¢ | $165 | −$45 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 467 | 44¢ | 34.5¢ | $161 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 184 | 89¢ | 86.5¢ | $159 | −$4.61 | $0 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 164 | 85.8¢ | 93.5¢ | $154 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 400 | 33¢ | 38¢ | $152 | +$20 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 733 | 21.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $143 | −$15 | −$10 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? | No | 240 | 47¢ | 57.5¢ | $138 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 145 | 88¢ | 93.8¢ | $136 | +$8.44 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | No | 279 | 58¢ | 46.5¢ | $130 | −$32 | −$0.49 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 151 | 78¢ | 84.5¢ | $128 | +$9.85 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 124 | 13¢ | 98.9¢ | $123 | +$107 | +$7.07 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 144 | 91¢ | 78¢ | $112 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 257 | 58¢ | 41¢ | $105 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | No | 117 | 79.7¢ | 89¢ | $104 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 537 | 18¢ | 17¢ | $91 | −$5.37 | $0 | |
| Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? | No | 97 | 70¢ | 87.5¢ | $85 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 98 | 59¢ | 82.5¢ | $81 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,923 | 16.6¢ | 4.1¢ | $78 | −$241 | +$15 | |
| Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 143 | 37¢ | 54.5¢ | $78 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 379 | 10¢ | 20.5¢ | $78 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? | No | 72 | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | $72 | +$25 | +$6.23 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 1,283 | 6¢ | 5.5¢ | $71 | −$6.42 | $0 | |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 85 | 67.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $70 | +$12 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 131 | 41.5¢ | 51.6¢ | $68 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 72 | 89¢ | 91.5¢ | $66 | +$1.80 | $0 | |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 148 | 51.7¢ | 41¢ | $61 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 72 | 95.8¢ | 83.9¢ | $60 | −$8.57 | $0 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 126 | 66¢ | 45¢ | $57 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 164 | 49.8¢ | 30¢ | $49 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 533 | 11¢ | 9¢ | $48 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 55 | 77¢ | 87.5¢ | $48 | +$5.74 | +$1.38 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 75 | 63¢ | 63.5¢ | $47 | +$0.37 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat? | Yes | 48 | 96¢ | 96.1¢ | $46 | +$0.02 | $0 | |
| Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,014 | 7¢ | 4.5¢ | $46 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Together win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | No | 56 | 65¢ | 76¢ | $42 | +$6.13 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 396 | 6.7¢ | 8.5¢ | $34 | +$7.23 | −$5.18 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? | No | 34 | 96¢ | 95.5¢ | $33 | −$0.17 | $0 | |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 33 | 91.1¢ | 98.6¢ | $33 | +$2.47 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 52 | 59¢ | 61.5¢ | $32 | +$1.29 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 33 | 86¢ | 94.5¢ | $31 | +$2.80 | $0 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 360 | 19.1¢ | 8.1¢ | $29 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 36 | 69¢ | 79.5¢ | $29 | +$3.78 | +$1.44 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 305 | 8.9¢ | 9¢ | $27 | +$0.17 | −$49 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat? | No | 41 | 57¢ | 61.5¢ | $25 | +$1.83 | $0 | |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 60 | 52.6¢ | 41.5¢ | $25 | −$6.66 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 66 | 22.5¢ | 37¢ | $24 | +$9.47 | +$1.59 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat? | Yes | 125 | 21¢ | 19¢ | $24 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Solana dip to $100 October 5-11? | Yes | 310 | 18.7¢ | 7.6¢ | $24 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? | No | 24 | 75¢ | 99.5¢ | $23 | +$5.77 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 84 | 30.2¢ | 27¢ | $23 | −$2.70 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | Yes | 1,376 | 2.9¢ | 1.7¢ | $23 | −$17 | −$0.83 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat? | Yes | 24 | 93¢ | 94.5¢ | $23 | +$0.36 | $0 | |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | Yes | 34 | 59¢ | 65¢ | $22 | +$2.07 | +$0.44 | |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | Yes | 24 | 91¢ | 92.9¢ | $22 | +$0.46 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 24 | 74¢ | 92¢ | $22 | +$4.32 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 240 | 9¢ | 9¢ | $22 | $0 | $0 | |