sharpside
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Traders/Rank #65

aenews2

0x44c…ebc1@aenews
SharpWhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2.22Mvol $253M
PnL 30d+$311kgains $160k · losses $55.0k
PnL 7d+$255kwin rate 7d 93.5%
Win rate80.1%adj 78.9% · 30d 83.3%
Open value$1.48Mcash n/a
Positions229 / 3,256open / all-time
Max drawdown−16.4%of equity peak
Account age2.7ylast trade 21h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2.46Mbelow peak −$32.8kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

85/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale91
Adjusted win rateraw 80.1% · shrunk toward 50%97
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity84

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No1.44M74¢89.5¢$1.29M+$223k−$25.1k
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No100.0k99.2¢99.6¢$99.5k+$350$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes85.3k22.2¢22¢$18.8k−$163+$722
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes376k12.6¢4.9¢$18.4k−$28.8k+$18.3k
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No31.0k41.8¢42.1¢$13.0k+$91+$959
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes25.0k25¢26.5¢$6,625+$375$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes61.4k14.8¢9.5¢$5,833−$3,276$0
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?No5,10294.6¢94¢$4,793−$31−$208
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes8,78934.9¢25.5¢$2,241−$823+$55
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes7,48627¢26.5¢$1,984−$39$0
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?No7,28922¢22.5¢$1,640+$36$0
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes37.1k6.7¢4.3¢$1,578−$903$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes12.4k40.4¢12.5¢$1,551−$3,461+$162
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No1,53793.2¢97.5¢$1,498+$66−$460
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes28.9k23.7¢5¢$1,447−$5,409+$2,216
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes1,06680¢89¢$949+$96$0
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes4,22133.8¢21.5¢$908−$517+$39
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?Yes91083¢95.1¢$865+$110$0
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes4,35156.8¢19.5¢$848−$1,621$0
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes80634.4¢98.6¢$794+$518$0
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes16.6k7.6¢4.5¢$747−$514$0
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Yes82759.9¢79¢$653+$158$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes6,38839.2¢8.5¢$543−$1,964+$157
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes4,35340.7¢11¢$479−$1,295$0
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes1,85630.8¢22.5¢$418−$154+$4.32
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes2,04432.4¢19¢$387−$276$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No1,34034.9¢28.8¢$386−$82$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes2,94367.2¢12¢$353−$1,626$0
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes12.2k8.2¢2.5¢$305−$694+$1,847
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes3,00313.1¢7.5¢$225−$169$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes5,96322.3¢3.6¢$212−$1,119$0
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes30034.3¢66.5¢$200+$97+$122
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes79416.8¢25¢$198+$65+$55
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Yes2,45719.9¢8¢$197−$293+$76
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes99829.8¢16¢$160−$138$0
EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?Yes88515.8¢18¢$159+$19$0
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No20787.8¢73.5¢$152−$30$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes3,74718.4¢3.9¢$146−$542+$96
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No13980¢89.5¢$124+$13$0
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes3,3348.4¢3.7¢$123−$156+$262
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes2,67312.5¢4.6¢$122−$212$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes63928.7¢18.5¢$118−$65$0
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No12595.9¢94.3¢$118−$1.98$0
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes86620.4¢13¢$113−$64$0
X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes77429.6¢14.5¢$112−$117$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes26241¢42.5¢$112+$3.94$0
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?Yes10081¢91.5¢$92+$11$0
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Yes36544.4¢24.5¢$89−$73$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes1,50116.8¢5.5¢$83−$170$0
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Yes2,6566.7¢3.1¢$81−$97$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?Yes8879.2¢79.5¢$70+$0.23$0
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes66626¢10.5¢$70−$103+$29
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes81628.7¢8.5¢$69−$164$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?Yes11633.6¢54.5¢$63+$24+$7.59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No14651¢40¢$58−$16$0
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Yes57214.5¢8.5¢$49−$34$0
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes27361.2¢17¢$46−$120$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No10040.5¢45.5¢$46+$5.00$0
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes4494¢99¢$43+$2.17$0
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Yes7591¢54¢$41−$28$0
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes26443.1¢14¢$37−$77$0
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes9746¢2.9¢$29−$30$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No3059.1¢70.5¢$21+$3.44+$2,119
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?No2271¢92.5¢$20+$4.71$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes25269.6¢6.5¢$16−$159$0
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes50021.4¢3.3¢$16−$91$0
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes5892¢2.6¢$15+$3.24+$446
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes1887¢63.5¢$11−$4.18$0
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?Yes3045¢32.5¢$9.75−$3.75$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Yes16015.2¢5.9¢$9.44−$15$0
Will "Japan" be in the headlines this week?Yes5050¢12.5¢$6.25−$19$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes10015¢5.5¢$5.52−$9.53+$840
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes4214.3¢11¢$4.60−$1.41$0
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Yes574¢78¢$3.90+$0.20$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Yes2417¢11¢$2.62−$1.43$0
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes815¢28¢$2.24+$1.04$0
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes1218¢13¢$1.56−$0.60$0
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes2031.7¢7¢$1.38−$4.87$0
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes82¢6.1¢$0.48+$0.32+$233
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes536¢7.5¢$0.38−$1.43$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No249.9¢12.4¢$0.22−$0.66+$107
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Yes21934.5¢0.1¢$0.11−$75$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes527k8.4¢0¢$0−$44.5k−$125k
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid300k38.7¢0¢$0−$116k$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No278k0.4¢0¢$0−$1,011−$19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes180k1.4¢0¢$0−$2,556−$6.52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes127k4.6¢0¢$0−$5,788−$0.16
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?Yes67.9k20¢0¢$0−$13.6k+$7,507
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes66.8k38.5¢0¢$0−$25.7k−$1.77
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?Yes65.5k20¢0¢$0−$13.1k+$7,023
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Yes50.7k31.4¢0¢$0−$15.9k−$6.22
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No49.6k8.7¢0¢$0−$4,320−$34
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No46.6k31.5¢0¢$0−$14.6k−$1,786
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes42.1k57.7¢0¢$0−$24.3k−$222
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes35.0k19.8¢0¢$0−$6,928+$538
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?Yes32.5k20¢0¢$0−$6,489+$436
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?Yes30.3k20¢0¢$0−$6,052−$0.33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes30.1k20.7¢0¢$0−$6,234$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No29.1k0.7¢0¢$0−$206−$5.18
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes26.9k26¢0¢$0−$7,005$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Donald Trump publicly praise Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?96.3¢165$15980%85Sharp
BUY NoWill Makoto Fujita win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?99.8¢202$20280%85Sharp
BUY NoWill Harry Gray win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?98.3¢68$6680%85Sharp
BUY NoWill David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?98.6¢739$72980%85Sharp
BUY YesSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?34.5¢219$7680%85Sharp
BUY NoWill Peter Shor win the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2026?99.9¢40$4080%85Sharp
BUY NoWill Simon White win the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2026?99.9¢20$2080%85Sharp
BUY NoWill Stéphane Mallat win the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2026?99¢71$7180%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?95¢497$47280%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?98.2¢3,251$3,19280%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?90¢220$19880%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?89.9¢246$22180%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?85¢33$2880%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?89.5¢1,316$1,17880%85Sharp
BUY YesWill Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?79.2¢88$7080%85Sharp
SELL YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?55.6¢1,647$91580%85Sharp
SELL YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?72¢572$41280%85Sharp
SELL YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?78.3¢927$72680%85Sharp
BUY YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?71.6¢1,152$82580%85Sharp
BUY YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?54.4¢1,647$89680%85Sharp