| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 10.0k | 54¢ | 93.5¢ | $9,350 | +$3,951 | +$580 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 7,000 | 87.1¢ | 96.9¢ | $6,779 | +$680 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 6,000 | 69.4¢ | 69.1¢ | $4,143 | −$22 | +$6.56 | |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Yes | 9,000 | 57.3¢ | 41.5¢ | $3,735 | −$1,421 | +$39 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 60.3¢ | 71.6¢ | $2,864 | +$453 | +$709 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 4,000 | 66¢ | 66.5¢ | $2,660 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? | Yes | 3,000 | 58.3¢ | 84¢ | $2,520 | +$770 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 3,000 | 68.8¢ | 81¢ | $2,430 | +$367 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | No | 3,000 | 38.6¢ | 79.5¢ | $2,385 | +$1,228 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,000 | 29¢ | 99.5¢ | $1,989 | +$1,409 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 42.5¢ | 42.5¢ | $1,700 | +$0.02 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,000 | 44¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,670 | +$790 | −$280 | |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | No | 10,000 | 33.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,450 | −$1,867 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,647 | 72¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,392 | +$206 | +$46 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 2,000 | 74¢ | 69.5¢ | $1,390 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 2,000 | 51¢ | 53.5¢ | $1,070 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 2,000 | 41.7¢ | 49.5¢ | $989 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 14¢ | 95.3¢ | $953 | +$813 | +$454 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 47¢ | 47.5¢ | $950 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 1,000 | 88¢ | 93.5¢ | $935 | +$55 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 69.5¢ | 44¢ | $880 | −$510 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 4,000 | 22¢ | 21.5¢ | $860 | −$20 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,822 | 36.8¢ | 21.5¢ | $822 | −$585 | +$363 | |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? | No | 859 | 33¢ | 92.5¢ | $795 | +$511 | $0 | |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,000 | 46.3¢ | 39.5¢ | $790 | −$136 | +$210 | |
| Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | Yes | 969 | 47¢ | 80.5¢ | $780 | +$325 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 23¢ | 18.5¢ | $740 | −$180 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 1,000 | 80.3¢ | 73.3¢ | $732 | −$70 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 62¢ | 72.5¢ | $725 | +$105 | $0 | |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | No | 800 | 73¢ | 88.5¢ | $708 | +$124 | $0 | |
| Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? | No | 800 | 67¢ | 85.5¢ | $684 | +$148 | $0 | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 2,000 | 37.6¢ | 33.8¢ | $675 | −$77 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 12.0k | 13.5¢ | 5.1¢ | $606 | −$1,011 | −$202 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 1,000 | 61¢ | 60.5¢ | $605 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 1,000 | 12¢ | 54.5¢ | $545 | +$425 | +$526 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 600 | 53¢ | 89.5¢ | $537 | +$219 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4,000 | 11¢ | 12.5¢ | $500 | +$60 | +$40 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 53¢ | 48.5¢ | $485 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 26¢ | 23.5¢ | $470 | −$50 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 6,000 | 7¢ | 7.5¢ | $450 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 1,800 | 29.9¢ | 24.5¢ | $441 | −$97 | $0 | |
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 471 | 11¢ | 92.5¢ | $436 | +$384 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 764 | 31¢ | 47.5¢ | $363 | +$126 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 905 | 37.1¢ | 37.7¢ | $341 | +$4.98 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 800 | 39.8¢ | 38¢ | $304 | −$15 | $0 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 6,000 | 6.2¢ | 4.8¢ | $288 | −$82 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 400 | 31¢ | 70¢ | $280 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 286 | 21¢ | 95.6¢ | $273 | +$213 | +$57 | |
| James Comey charges dropped by December 31? | No | 400 | 41¢ | 67¢ | $268 | +$104 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | No | 264 | 92.7¢ | 96.8¢ | $255 | +$11 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 2,000 | 52¢ | 11.5¢ | $230 | −$810 | −$260 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 2,000 | 33¢ | 11¢ | $220 | −$440 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 24.9¢ | 22¢ | $220 | −$29 | +$368 | |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 23.1¢ | 21.5¢ | $215 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 1,000 | 23¢ | 19.5¢ | $195 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m? | Yes | 200 | 61¢ | 95.5¢ | $191 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026? | Yes | 1,101 | 10.5¢ | 17¢ | $187 | +$71 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 25¢ | 4.5¢ | $180 | −$820 | $0 | |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? | No | 500 | 24.7¢ | 31.9¢ | $159 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will any player have 1,750+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | No | 414 | 28¢ | 38.5¢ | $159 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 600 | 22¢ | 25¢ | $150 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 2,000 | 15¢ | 7.5¢ | $150 | −$150 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 153 | 79¢ | 95.5¢ | $147 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? | Yes | 1,000 | 34¢ | 14.5¢ | $145 | −$195 | $0 | |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | Yes | 800 | 63¢ | 17.5¢ | $140 | −$364 | $0 | |
| Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? | No | 221 | 52¢ | 59.5¢ | $132 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | No | 222 | 34¢ | 56.5¢ | $125 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election? | No | 1,000 | 16¢ | 12¢ | $120 | −$40 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 29.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $110 | −$481 | +$255 | |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 800 | 29¢ | 13.5¢ | $108 | −$124 | $0 | |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,748 | 13.4¢ | 6¢ | $105 | −$130 | −$1.54 | |
| Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 200 | 24¢ | 52¢ | $104 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,400 | 34.6¢ | 7¢ | $98 | −$386 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 22¢ | 9.5¢ | $95 | −$125 | $0 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | No | 2,313 | 4.2¢ | 4.1¢ | $95 | −$2.31 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 1,000 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $90 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 2,006 | 53.5¢ | 4.5¢ | $89 | −$984 | +$189 | |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 12¢ | 8¢ | $80 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | No | 866 | 6.1¢ | 6.7¢ | $58 | +$4.76 | $0 | |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? | Yes | 2,000 | 31¢ | 2.5¢ | $50 | −$570 | $0 | |
| Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 1,000 | 50.2¢ | 4.5¢ | $45 | −$457 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ | 4.5¢ | $45 | −$95 | −$224 | |
| Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? | Yes | 2,000 | 21¢ | 2.2¢ | $44 | −$376 | $0 | |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 932 | 39.3¢ | 3.3¢ | $31 | −$335 | +$72 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Yes | 1,000 | 17¢ | 2.3¢ | $23 | −$147 | $0 | |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 21 | 55¢ | 82¢ | $17 | +$5.69 | $0 | |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ | 1.6¢ | $15 | −$124 | $0 | |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 600 | 21¢ | 1.7¢ | $9.90 | −$116 | $0 | |
| Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Yes | 6 | 11¢ | 51¢ | $2.86 | +$2.24 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 21.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $2.00 | −$432 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? | Yes | 7 | 51¢ | 5.5¢ | $0.39 | −$3.21 | $0 | |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | Yes | 408k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$596 | −$277 | |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 160k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$480 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | Yes | 105k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$165 | +$63 | |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | Yes | 100k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | +$105 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 70.3k | 19¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13.3k | +$2,014 | |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 70.0k | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,449 | $0 | |
| Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? | Yes | 60.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 60.0k | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,399 | +$48 | |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 60.0k | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$919 | $0 | |