sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,583

efflo-polka

0x4dd…41dc
<30d oldPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1,875vol $39.5k
PnL 30d+$2,167gains $3,260 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$2,043win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate100.0%adj 58.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$6,052cash n/a
Positions33 / 37open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.5%of equity peak
Account age17dlast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,152below peak $0Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

32/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47
Adjusted win rateraw 100.0% · shrunk toward 50%46
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable52
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 33

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?No2,78983.4¢84.5¢$2,356+$30$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?No2,12651.9¢51¢$1,084−$19$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?No1,57421.7¢19¢$299−$42$0
Will Democrats win exactly 11 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections?No33188.4¢88¢$291−$1.24$0
Will Democrats win 12 or more House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections?No33187.3¢86¢$285−$4.39$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?No31089¢89.5¢$277+$1.55$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?No1,46212.1¢17.5¢$256+$79$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No26890¢88.5¢$237−$4.01$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes95918.6¢19.5¢$187+$9.09$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Yes78024¢22¢$171−$16$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?Yes17497.6¢93.9¢$164−$6.49$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Yes1,0452.9¢15.5¢$162+$131$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes27023¢24.5¢$66+$4.05$0
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No6689.9¢90.6¢$60+$0.43$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?No5092.4¢95¢$47+$1.27$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes1,0453.1¢4¢$41+$8.64$0
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes10018.1¢20.7¢$21+$2.62$0
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes10018¢17.5¢$18−$0.50$0
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes10015¢13.5¢$14−$1.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1,0010.7¢0.7¢$7.01−$0.01$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Yes1,7860.2¢0.3¢$4.46+$0.66$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes1,7860.3¢0.2¢$3.57−$2.34$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Yes2701¢0.3¢$0.68−$2.03$0
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Yes156¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.89$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No4,7902.8¢0¢$0−$133−$5.18
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No4,7351.8¢0¢$0−$84−$3.31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?No1,26174.6¢0¢$0−$940−$9.17
Will the PLQ win fewer than 28 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes3158.2¢0¢$0−$26−$0.95
Will the PLQ win 28-31 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes31512.2¢0¢$0−$39−$1.35
Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes20530.3¢0¢$0−$62−$1.73
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?Yes2000.4¢0¢$0−$0.81−$0.04
Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes20016.3¢0¢$0−$33−$1.09
Will the PLQ win 32-35 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes11538¢0¢$0−$44−$1.08

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?24.7¢156$39100%32
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?12.4¢521$65100%32
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?10¢511$51100%32
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?24¢780$187100%32
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?90¢268$241100%32
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?97.3¢14$14100%32
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?89¢310$276100%32
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?0.1¢1,000$1.00100%32
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?0.1¢1,000$1.00100%32
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?21¢255$54100%32
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?1¢270$2.70100%32
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?23¢270$62100%32
BUY NoWill Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?89.9¢66$59100%32
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?83.4¢2,789$2,326100%32
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?18.9¢341$64100%32
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?22¢500$110100%32
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?21¢85$18100%32
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?14.2¢430$61100%32
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?92.4¢50$46100%32
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?19.8¢86$17100%32