Traders/Rank #819

0x4e2…d7a7

WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$248kvol $68.8M

PnL 30d−$9,959gains $0 · losses $0

PnL 7d−$7,499win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate53.6%adj 53.5% · 30d 0.0%

Open value$288kcash n/a

Positions680 / 6,350open / all-time

Max drawdown−46.0%of equity peak

Account age2.2ylast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$297kbelow peak −$10.9kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

50/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale77

Adjusted win rateraw 53.6% · shrunk toward 50%34

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity54

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Noclosed+$34.3k Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? · Yesclosed+$13.7k Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Noopen+$13.2k US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? · Noclosed+$12.7k Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen+$12.5k

Worst markets

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Noclosed−$54.3k US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Yesclosed−$24.5k Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$10.8k Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen−$10.5k Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen−$10.4k

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	30.3k	82.1¢	97.2¢	$29.5k	+$4,557	−$3,161	3mo
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	26.5k	55.3¢	80.2¢	$21.3k	+$6,608	−$1,984	25mo
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	20.3k	81.8¢	96¢	$19.5k	+$2,873	−$4,665	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	No	15.0k	16.2¢	99.3¢	$14.9k	+$12.5k	+$726	3mo
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	12.8k	81.3¢	96¢	$12.3k	+$1,874	−$757	3mo
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	11.9k	21.1¢	95.6¢	$11.4k	+$8,853	+$1,680	3mo
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	11.2k	85.8¢	97.2¢	$10.9k	+$1,274	−$103	3mo
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	8,167	85¢	100¢	$8,167	+$1,228	−$199	ended
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	8,006	82.8¢	99.7¢	$7,978	+$1,352	−$1,169	6mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	No	8,164	26¢	97.4¢	$7,948	+$5,828	+$1,402	3mo
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	37.5k	36.7¢	19.9¢	$7,438	−$6,323	+$4,111	25mo
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	8,363	60.1¢	70.5¢	$5,896	+$869	$0	25d 13h
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	5,864	86.5¢	100¢	$5,864	+$789	$0	ended
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	5,879	89.4¢	97.8¢	$5,747	+$489	−$226	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	No	5,548	64.2¢	98.3¢	$5,454	+$1,894	−$1,372	3mo
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	5,132	88.6¢	97.9¢	$5,022	+$474	−$1,878	3mo
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	4,468	93¢	100¢	$4,468	+$313	$0	ended
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	4,694	81.9¢	92¢	$4,316	+$471	−$6,653	25mo
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	3,711	94.9¢	100¢	$3,709	+$189	−$1,452	25d 13h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	No	3,752	59¢	93.5¢	$3,508	+$1,295	$0	3mo
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	3,304	97.7¢	99.2¢	$3,276	+$47	−$861	6mo
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	3,420	95.5¢	95.1¢	$3,251	−$15	$0	6mo
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	3,681	90¢	87.5¢	$3,221	−$92	−$2,829	6mo
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	3,323	13.6¢	96.2¢	$3,195	+$2,744	+$9,185	25d 13h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	9,844	33.4¢	27.5¢	$2,707	−$582	$0	25d 13h
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	5,009	21.9¢	53.5¢	$2,680	+$1,584	$0	3mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	3,077	94.1¢	86.9¢	$2,672	−$222	−$5,021	25mo
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	2,702	95¢	96.9¢	$2,616	+$51	−$1,203	25mo
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	2,527	12.7¢	100¢	$2,527	+$2,205	+$823	2mo
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	4,770	44.6¢	50¢	$2,385	+$259	$0	ended
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	2,367	94.8¢	99¢	$2,342	+$99	−$10.6k	25mo
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	1,971	96¢	99.7¢	$1,964	+$72	−$1,725	25mo
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	2,777	51.8¢	63.5¢	$1,764	+$326	+$374	25d 13h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	1,516	97.2¢	98.4¢	$1,491	+$18	−$2,545	25mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	14.6k	0.7¢	10.2¢	$1,484	+$1,388	$0	25mo
Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	2,870	70¢	50.5¢	$1,449	−$560	$0	3mo
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	1,426	96.8¢	99.5¢	$1,418	+$38	−$857	6mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	1,361	98.3¢	99.9¢	$1,359	+$21	−$6,308	25mo
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	1,371	71¢	98.2¢	$1,345	+$372	−$1,348	3mo
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	1,402	88.5¢	94.7¢	$1,327	+$86	−$1,098	6mo
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	1,352	91¢	97.4¢	$1,316	+$86	−$2,436	3mo
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	1,442	84¢	90.5¢	$1,305	+$94	−$4,622	25d 13h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	3,479	44.7¢	37.5¢	$1,305	−$250	−$17	3mo
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	1,926	49.2¢	63.5¢	$1,223	+$276	+$1,130	25d 13h
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	1,801	53.5¢	65.5¢	$1,180	+$216	−$14	25mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	7,728	2.4¢	15.1¢	$1,163	+$978	+$11.5k	25mo
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,786	53.1¢	64.5¢	$1,152	+$204	−$13	25mo
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	1,171	97.7¢	96.9¢	$1,134	−$10	−$866	6mo
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	1,081	98.4¢	99.4¢	$1,074	+$10	−$871	6mo
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	1,145	78.5¢	92.5¢	$1,059	+$161	$0	3mo
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	5,400	1.1¢	16.9¢	$910	+$848	$0	13h 5m
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	891	97.8¢	100¢	$891	+$20	−$1,066	25mo
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	4,150	18.7¢	21¢	$871	+$95	$0	3mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14.5k	1.1¢	5.9¢	$862	+$702	+$1,459	25mo
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,704	23.6¢	17.8¢	$840	−$272	+$4,938	25mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,402	3.3¢	18¢	$790	+$643	+$6,204	25mo
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Yes	800	94.7¢	97.4¢	$779	+$21	$0	25d 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	747	81.5¢	97¢	$724	+$116	$0	3mo
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	727	98.2¢	99.3¢	$722	+$7.45	−$783	6mo
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	741	60.8¢	95.5¢	$707	+$257	$0	3mo
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	5,631	53.7¢	12.4¢	$695	−$2,328	−$49	3mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	22.4k	1.1¢	3.1¢	$682	+$439	+$1,005	25mo
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	2,259	16.7¢	30¢	$678	+$302	+$147	3mo
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	696	97.1¢	96.2¢	$669	−$6.57	−$849	6mo
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	6,942	61.8¢	9.5¢	$659	−$3,629	−$47	3mo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	11.0k	33.4¢	5.5¢	$603	−$3,064	+$980	3mo
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	603	96.4¢	97.9¢	$590	+$9.26	−$1,243	6mo
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	20.4k	1.3¢	2.9¢	$581	+$309	+$1,574	25mo
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	5,565	17.9¢	9.5¢	$529	−$466	+$3,193	25d 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	523	83.5¢	96.7¢	$506	+$69	−$299	3mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3,204	20.1¢	15.2¢	$485	−$158	+$4,702	25mo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	3,022	28.9¢	15.5¢	$468	−$406	+$2,100	3mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	9,172	1.6¢	5.1¢	$463	+$315	+$4,636	25mo
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	5,400	1.1¢	8.5¢	$459	+$397	$0	13h 5m
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	901	48.6¢	50¢	$450	+$13	+$1.54	ended
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	5,400	1.1¢	8.2¢	$443	+$381	$0	13h 5m
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	3,786	5.3¢	11.5¢	$435	+$236	+$487	6mo
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	13.9k	0.7¢	2.4¢	$334	+$243	+$310	25mo
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	10.5k	0.6¢	3¢	$314	+$251	+$1,632	25mo
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	309	97.6¢	100¢	$309	+$7.31	−$1,370	6mo
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	630	41.1¢	48.6¢	$306	+$47	+$1,735	25mo
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14.8k	1.6¢	2.1¢	$304	+$69	+$5,127	25mo
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	306	99.2¢	99.3¢	$304	+$0.23	$0	25d 13h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,251	0.5¢	13.2¢	$296	+$286	+$5,754	25mo
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	288	96.4¢	99.4¢	$286	+$8.77	−$1,092	6mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	9,920	0.8¢	2.8¢	$273	+$190	+$2,591	25mo
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	11.8k	0.7¢	2.3¢	$271	+$192	+$1,632	25mo
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Yes	275	20.2¢	98.5¢	$271	+$215	$0	3mo
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	271	96.5¢	98.9¢	$268	+$6.37	−$251	6mo
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	270	98¢	98.8¢	$267	+$2.02	$0	25mo
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	4,096	31.3¢	6.5¢	$266	−$1,014	+$1,229	3mo
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	15.7k	1¢	1.7¢	$266	+$104	+$2,142	25mo
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	271	98.1¢	96.4¢	$261	−$4.74	−$129	6mo
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	No	509	45.8¢	50¢	$255	+$21	+$12	ended
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	272	86.1¢	92.8¢	$252	+$18	−$5,965	25mo
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	238	98.8¢	99.7¢	$237	+$2.02	−$2,865	25mo
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	3,601	26.3¢	6.5¢	$234	−$711	+$380	4mo
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	9,011	0.7¢	2.6¢	$230	+$165	+$7,060	25mo
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	231	97¢	99.5¢	$230	+$5.65	−$964	6mo
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	9,274	3.9¢	2.5¢	$227	−$137	+$122	6mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	19¢	6	$1.14	54%	50
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	9.5¢	21	$2.02	54%	50
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	9.5¢	1,186	$113	54%	50
5mo ago	BUY No	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	95.9¢	71	$68	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	35¢	713	$250	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3.9¢	1,543	$60	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL No	Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	80¢	3,500	$2,798	54%	50
5mo ago	BUY No	Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	84¢	179	$150	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	30.2¢	797	$241	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50
5mo ago	BUY No	Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	99.5¢	962	$957	54%	50
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?	0.1¢	2,500	$2.50	54%	50