sharpside
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MiaoAlpha

0x523…ca59
WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$250vol $27.6k
PnL 30d+$518gains $233 · losses $15
PnL 7d+$24win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate80.0%adj 69.1% · 30d 90.9%
Open value$6,115cash n/a
Positions46 / 81open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.1%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$783below peak −$25Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

49/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale34
Adjusted win rateraw 80.0% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable64
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity79

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 46

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No50199.7¢99.7¢$499−$0.25$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No50698.8¢98.7¢$499−$0.76+$0.03
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?No55076.4¢88.5¢$487+$67$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?No43570.8¢86.5¢$376+$68$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes36440.8¢82.5¢$300+$152$0
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Yes30081¢91.5¢$275+$32$0
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No28171¢89.5¢$251+$52$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No20895.9¢96.4¢$200+$0.94$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No20697¢97¢$200−$0.10+$1.48
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No20497.8¢97.8¢$199−$0.10+$1.65
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No20497.8¢97.8¢$199−$0.10$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No20597.2¢97.2¢$199−$0.10+$1.64
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?No20358¢98.1¢$199+$81$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?No24046.1¢71.5¢$172+$61$0
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No25060¢67.5¢$169+$19$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No19776¢85.5¢$168+$19$0
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?Yes21047.3¢77.5¢$162+$63$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No18979¢82.5¢$156+$6.62$0
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No23048.9¢67¢$154+$42$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No11597.5¢98.5¢$113+$1.09+$0.56
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Yes23023¢45.5¢$105+$52$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No10595¢96.8¢$102+$1.84$0
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?No30333¢33.5¢$102+$1.52$0
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?No15663.5¢60¢$94−$5.44$0
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?No30022¢27¢$81+$15$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?No15543¢50.5¢$78+$12$0
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No7698¢99¢$75+$0.75+$1.27
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?No8085¢91.5¢$73+$5.20−$1.21
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes27225¢23¢$63−$5.44$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?No6477¢95.5¢$61+$12$0
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?No6779¢80¢$54+$0.67$0
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No4785¢96.3¢$45+$5.29$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?Yes17214.8¢19.1¢$33+$7.31$0
Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Yes7235.3¢4.5¢$33−$5.71$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes30014¢9.5¢$29−$14$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes36418.1¢7.5¢$27−$38$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?No6925.4¢35.5¢$24+$6.97$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes3646.2¢3.7¢$13−$9.14$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?No565.8¢23.1¢$13+$9.66$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes36411.2¢2.6¢$9.28−$31$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?Yes3645.9¢2.4¢$8.55−$13$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Yes22563.5¢3.6¢$7.99−$135$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes3642.6¢1.1¢$3.82−$5.75$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes3645.1¢0.5¢$1.82−$17$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes3643.3¢0.3¢$1.09−$11$0
Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?No32053¢0¢$0−$170$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?58¢203$11880%49
BUY NoWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?97.8¢204$20080%49
BUY NoTrump out as President before 2027?95.9¢208$19980%49
BUY NoWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?97.8¢204$20080%49
BUY NoXi Jinping out before 2027?97.2¢205$19980%49
BUY NoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97¢206$20080%49
BUY NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.8¢506$50080%49
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?99.7¢501$50080%49
SELL NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.7¢136$13480%49
SELL NoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?96.8¢450$43680%49
BUY NoWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?77¢64$4980%49
BUY YesNobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?48¢83$4080%49
BUY NoWill Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?79¢67$5380%49
BUY NoWill the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?85¢47$4080%49
SELL NoJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?99¢43$4380%49
BUY YesWill Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?23¢230$5380%49
SELL NoJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?99¢58$5780%49
BUY YesWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?14.8¢172$2580%49
SELL NoJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?98.8¢27$2780%49
BUY NoWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?60¢250$15080%49