| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 17.3k | 79.7¢ | 83.5¢ | $14.5k | +$661 | −$30 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | No | 7,160 | 88.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $6,695 | +$354 | +$78 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 3,471 | 59.9¢ | 57.5¢ | $1,996 | −$85 | −$9.08 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,003 | 20.4¢ | 28.5¢ | $1,426 | +$405 | +$860 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,576 | 63.1¢ | 79.5¢ | $1,253 | +$259 | $0 | |
| Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | No | 1,071 | 86.4¢ | 96.8¢ | $1,037 | +$112 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,173 | 12.2¢ | 8.5¢ | $695 | −$304 | −$2.12 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,509 | 33.1¢ | 7¢ | $596 | −$2,224 | −$27 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 609 | 83.9¢ | 95.5¢ | $582 | +$70 | +$366 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,909 | 18¢ | 11.5¢ | $450 | −$256 | −$66 | |
| Will Harry Shum Jr. win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? | No | 485 | 85.9¢ | 89¢ | $432 | +$15 | +$0.93 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,354 | 7.2¢ | 8.1¢ | $431 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,011 | 6.7¢ | 10.7¢ | $427 | +$158 | −$14 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | Yes | 436 | 74.2¢ | 82.3¢ | $358 | +$35 | +$7.82 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,667 | 17.5¢ | 9¢ | $150 | −$142 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,865 | 4.6¢ | 3.8¢ | $147 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,033 | 16.7¢ | 2.7¢ | $107 | −$569 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,373 | 7.6¢ | 6.5¢ | $89 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,609 | 8.9¢ | 0.8¢ | $69 | −$697 | −$1.94 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 127 | 31¢ | 51.5¢ | $65 | +$26 | +$7.17 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 3,048 | 3.8¢ | 1.8¢ | $55 | −$61 | −$12 | |
| Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? | No | 50 | 84.8¢ | 86¢ | $43 | +$0.58 | −$2.98 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 300 | 45¢ | 11.5¢ | $35 | −$101 | $0 | |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 15.6¢ | 6.6¢ | $33 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 6¢ | 5.5¢ | $28 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 104 | 22.8¢ | 20¢ | $21 | −$2.95 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 1.7¢ | 2.1¢ | $20 | +$3.48 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 3.6¢ | 3.6¢ | $18 | −$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 23 | 56¢ | 41.5¢ | $9.54 | −$3.33 | −$98 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 960 | 0.9¢ | 0.8¢ | $7.20 | −$1.78 | −$6.70 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 14¢ | 2.9¢ | $0.74 | −$2.76 | −$16 | |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 62 | 22.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0.22 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 90.6k | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.8k | −$680 | |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | No | 47.4k | 54.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25.7k | −$2.03 | |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | No | 39.0k | 19¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,414 | −$7,193 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 38.2k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,517 | −$319 | |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Yes | 32.3k | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,114 | +$22 | |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 32.0k | 17.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,497 | −$2,193 | |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 23.6k | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$190 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 23.0k | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,431 | −$602 | |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 20.4k | 18.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,741 | −$270 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 19.7k | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$729 | −$24 | |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Yes | 19.2k | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,400 | +$50 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 17.5k | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$617 | −$1,349 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 16.0k | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,923 | +$1.40 | |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 14.3k | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,287 | −$279 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | Yes | 13.5k | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$375 | −$2.37 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 12.9k | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,984 | −$10.5k | |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 12.5k | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$457 | −$47 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | Yes | 11.8k | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,708 | −$132 | |
| Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 11.6k | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$855 | −$354 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? | No | 11.6k | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,778 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? | No | 11.5k | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,571 | −$602 | |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? | Yes | 11.5k | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$575 | −$4.42 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | No | 11.1k | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$500 | +$215 | |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? | Yes | 10.5k | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$495 | −$52 | |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September? | Yes | 10.4k | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$706 | +$129 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 10.2k | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,155 | +$358 | |
| Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 9,477 | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,463 | +$1,619 | |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Yes | 9,022 | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$503 | −$110 | |
| Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | No | 8,282 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$226 | −$4.32 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Yes | 8,231 | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,256 | +$284 | |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 8,131 | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,722 | +$2,892 | |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? | No | 7,989 | 21.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,712 | −$167 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? | Yes | 7,734 | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$503 | −$32 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 7,489 | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,356 | +$9.00 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 7,197 | 24.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,776 | +$445 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Yes | 7,130 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$163 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in August? | Yes | 7,124 | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,192 | +$119 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Yes | 6,657 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$103 | $0 | |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Yes | 6,656 | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$585 | −$113 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | Yes | 6,232 | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$951 | −$15 | |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 5,856 | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$662 | −$325 | |
| Another US debt downgrade in 2025? | Yes | 5,836 | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$513 | −$14 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? | Yes | 5,576 | 14.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$801 | −$56 | |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 5,454 | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$678 | −$34 | |
| Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? | Yes | 5,448 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | No | 5,333 | 41.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,210 | −$182 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | Yes | 5,009 | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$390 | −$13 | |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? | No | 4,973 | 63.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,178 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | Yes | 3,939 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$511 | −$642 | |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? | Yes | 3,864 | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$165 | +$82 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September? | Yes | 3,828 | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$812 | −$11 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3,775 | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$197 | −$280 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3,429 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$215 | +$2,009 | |
| Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 3,199 | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$250 | −$2,670 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Yes | 3,187 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | +$5.14 | |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? | Yes | 3,154 | 20.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$635 | −$21 | |
| Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August? | Yes | 3,000 | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$111 | $0 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? | Yes | 3,000 | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$296 | $0 | |
| Will Obama endorse Mamdani? | Yes | 2,955 | 10.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$319 | −$90 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 2,873 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | −$0.48 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? | No | 2,799 | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$607 | −$24 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July? | Yes | 2,506 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$72 | $0 | |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | No | 2,470 | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$522 | −$85 | |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | No | 2,429 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$291 | −$103 | |
| Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 2,394 | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$557 | −$38 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 2,133 | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$217 | $0 | |