Traders/Rank #299

GayPride

0x551…b0e0

SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$648kvol $23.8M

PnL 30d+$513gains $40.1k · losses $789

PnL 7d+$8,355win rate 7d 85.7%

Win rate85.3%adj 83.9% · 30d 84.0%

Open value$106kcash n/a

Positions571 / 1,071open / all-time

Max drawdown−30.4%of equity peak

Account age1.6ylast trade 4d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$595kbelow peak −$213kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

81/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale83

Adjusted win rateraw 85.3% · shrunk toward 50%100

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d87

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity70

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? · Yesclosed+$154k Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yesclosed+$86.8k LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) · G2 Esportsclosed+$60.4k LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) · Anyone's Legendclosed+$43.4k Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? · Noclosed+$26.1k

Worst markets

Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%? · Noclosed−$66.2k Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? · Yesopen−$58.2k Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? · Yesopen−$48.3k Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? · Noopen−$31.9k Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$22.9k

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	25.3k	12.7¢	52.1¢	$13.2k	+$9,963	+$1,231	3mo
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	25.0k	50¢	51.5¢	$12.9k	+$363	−$400	25mo
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	25.0k	50¢	48.6¢	$12.1k	−$363	+$876	25mo
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	50.9k	16.3¢	15.5¢	$7,884	−$388	$0	3mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	55.2k	0.6¢	13.2¢	$7,258	+$6,908	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?	Yes	3,284	93¢	95.6¢	$3,140	+$87	$0	26d 2h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	5,662	40.4¢	47.5¢	$2,689	+$399	+$7.52	19d 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	84.3k	3.2¢	3.2¢	$2,657	−$77	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-04 House seat?	Yes	2,495	93¢	97.1¢	$2,423	+$102	−$2.15	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?	No	2,500	94¢	96.5¢	$2,411	+$61	$0	26d 2h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	43.0k	11.6¢	5.5¢	$2,368	−$2,616	$0	23d 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	22.5k	0.4¢	10.2¢	$2,295	+$2,200	+$2,799	25mo
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	2,500	52.9¢	80.2¢	$2,004	+$681	−$119	25mo
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	3,817	38.9¢	48.5¢	$1,851	+$367	+$52	19d 2h
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?	No	1,537	93.7¢	96.5¢	$1,483	+$44	$0	3mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	20.5k	35¢	5.9¢	$1,220	−$5,953	+$3,377	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-50 House seat?	Yes	1,280	92¢	95.2¢	$1,217	+$40	$0	26d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat?	Yes	1,261	94¢	96.5¢	$1,216	+$31	$0	26d 2h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	2.3¢	$1,181	+$965	$0	25mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	42.2k	0.4¢	2.8¢	$1,161	+$985	+$231	25mo
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	66.3k	0.7¢	1.8¢	$1,161	+$669	+$112	25mo
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	22.4k	1¢	4.6¢	$1,030	+$813	+$1,693	25mo
Will the Republican Party win the MA-09 House seat?	No	1,057	94¢	97.3¢	$1,028	+$34	$0	26d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?	Yes	1,007	93¢	94.7¢	$953	+$17	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-12 House seat?	Yes	1,000	92¢	94.5¢	$945	+$25	$0	26d 2h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	4,597	29.3¢	20.5¢	$942	−$404	+$497	23d 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	32.5k	0.4¢	2.3¢	$748	+$610	+$341	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?	No	900	73.5¢	82¢	$738	+$76	+$22	26d 2h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	9,836	17¢	7.5¢	$733	−$943	−$3,369	25mo
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	1.4¢	$709	+$492	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-11 House seat?	Yes	631	93.9¢	96¢	$606	+$13	$0	26d 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	1¢	$499	+$282	+$0.12	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat?	Yes	501	92¢	96.1¢	$481	+$20	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?	Yes	495	93¢	95.5¢	$473	+$12	−$2.15	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	No	1,210	38.3¢	37.5¢	$454	−$9.11	+$16	26d 2h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.9¢	$446	+$230	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?	Yes	1,504	25.5¢	29.5¢	$444	+$60	+$94	26d 2h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	40.3k	0.4¢	0.9¢	$362	+$194	+$296	25mo
Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?	Yes	10.0k	3¢	3.6¢	$355	+$55	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?	No	5,000	8.5¢	7¢	$350	−$75	$0	26d 2h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.7¢	$341	+$125	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-20 House seat?	Yes	343	92¢	98.2¢	$337	+$21	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?	Yes	351	85¢	94.5¢	$332	+$33	−$707	26d 2h
Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	323	87.4¢	94.1¢	$304	+$22	+$32	26d 2h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.5¢	$289	+$72	$0	25mo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	2,500	17¢	11.5¢	$287	−$137	$0	7d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	1,553	22¢	18.5¢	$287	−$54	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	1,271	20.1¢	22.5¢	$286	+$31	+$2.26	26d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	750	38¢	36.5¢	$274	−$11	+$14	26d 2h
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	314	88.4¢	84.5¢	$265	−$12	+$1.86	26d 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.5¢	$263	+$46	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	1,185	19.6¢	21.5¢	$255	+$23	+$4.60	26d 2h
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	292	88.1¢	85.5¢	$249	−$7.71	$0	26d 2h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.5¢	$236	+$20	$0	25mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	250	39¢	86.5¢	$216	+$119	$0	ended
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?	Yes	915	16¢	22.5¢	$206	+$59	$0	26d 2h
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	1,298	19.2¢	15.6¢	$202	−$47	$0	19d 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,500	0.8¢	8.1¢	$201	+$182	+$8,503	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?	Yes	3,357	10.4¢	5.9¢	$200	−$149	−$0.10	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	941	19¢	19.5¢	$184	+$4.71	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	No	931	22.8¢	18.5¢	$172	−$40	$0	26d 2h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	9,574	0.8¢	1.8¢	$168	+$86	+$1,652	25mo
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	643	7.7¢	25.7¢	$165	+$116	$0	26d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?	Yes	2,500	10¢	6.5¢	$163	−$88	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-02 House seat?	Yes	5,000	4¢	3¢	$150	−$50	$0	26d 2h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	3¢	$150	+$150	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?	Yes	146	92¢	97.6¢	$142	+$8.09	−$2.20	26d 2h
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	643	7.7¢	21.5¢	$138	+$88	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?	No	1,828	12.4¢	7.5¢	$137	−$89	−$7.12	26d 2h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	2.6¢	$127	+$127	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?	No	9,994	2.6¢	1.3¢	$125	−$135	−$0.01	26d 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	23.4k	0.4¢	0.5¢	$105	+$3.51	+$358	25mo
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,726	0¢	2.1¢	$97	+$97	$0	25mo
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	682	7.3¢	13.8¢	$94	+$44	+$1.42	26d 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-20 House seat?	No	5,000	3¢	1.9¢	$93	−$58	+$8.07	26d 2h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	1.8¢	$87	+$87	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?	Yes	83	94¢	98.8¢	$82	+$3.95	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?	Yes	2,021	3¢	3.9¢	$79	+$18	$0	26d 2h
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.2¢	$79	−$138	$0	25mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52.5k	0.4¢	0.2¢	$79	−$138	$0	25mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,500	0.8¢	3.1¢	$76	+$57	−$23.0k	25mo
Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat?	Yes	2,500	3¢	2.8¢	$69	−$6.25	$0	26d 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	1.4¢	$67	+$67	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	100	62¢	65.5¢	$66	+$3.50	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?	No	500	16¢	12.5¢	$62	−$17	$0	26d 2h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	1.3¢	$62	+$62	$0	25mo
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,999	0¢	1.3¢	$62	+$62	$0	25mo
Will Democrats win exactly 19 House seats in New York in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	78	74¢	74.5¢	$58	+$0.39	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat?	Yes	2,393	3¢	2.4¢	$56	−$16	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat?	Yes	2,403	3¢	2.3¢	$55	−$17	$0	26d 2h
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	500	15.2¢	11¢	$55	−$21	$0	3mo
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	395	7.8¢	12.4¢	$49	+$18	+$105	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-10 House seat?	Yes	1,839	3¢	2.6¢	$47	−$8.27	+$0.05	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat?	Yes	1,160	4¢	4¢	$46	$0	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the LA-03 House seat?	No	1,000	5¢	4.5¢	$45	−$5.00	$0	26d 2h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-07 House seat?	Yes	2,000	3.6¢	2.2¢	$43	−$29	$0	26d 2h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	754	56¢	5.5¢	$41	−$381	$0	23d 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,500	0.8¢	1.7¢	$41	+$22	+$862	25mo
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	7,500	0.5¢	0.5¢	$41	+$2.04	+$618	25mo
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	643	7.7¢	6.2¢	$40	−$9.60	$0	26d 2h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
4d ago	BUY Yes	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	17¢	23.4k	$3,972	85%	81	Sharp
7d ago	SELL Yes	Will the Republican Party win the WA-10 House seat?	3.3¢	30	$1.00	85%	81	Sharp
10d ago	SELL Yes	Will the Republican Party win the CT-03 House seat?	5¢	65	$3.25	85%	81	Sharp
10d ago	SELL No	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?	2.6¢	7	$0.17	85%	81	Sharp
13d ago	BUY Yes	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	18¢	600	$108	85%	81	Sharp
15d ago	BUY Yes	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	7¢	292	$20	85%	81	Sharp
18d ago	BUY Yes	Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	9.7¢	140	$14	85%	81	Sharp
18d ago	BUY Yes	Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	9.8¢	1,915	$188	85%	81	Sharp
19d ago	SELL Yes	Will the Republican Party win the VA-04 House seat?	2.1¢	67	$1.40	85%	81	Sharp
19d ago	BUY No	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	69¢	1,031	$711	85%	81	Sharp
19d ago	BUY No	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	58¢	888	$515	85%	81	Sharp
19d ago	BUY Yes	Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	13.3¢	3,188	$423	85%	81	Sharp
19d ago	BUY Yes	Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	6.9¢	3,488	$241	85%	81	Sharp
25d ago	SELL No	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	77¢	10	$7.70	85%	81	Sharp
25d ago	SELL No	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	77¢	13	$10	85%	81	Sharp
28d ago	BUY Yes	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	10¢	1,405	$141	85%	81	Sharp
28d ago	BUY Yes	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	48¢	2,733	$1,312	85%	81	Sharp
28d ago	BUY Yes	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	46.7¢	363	$169	85%	81	Sharp
29d ago	BUY No	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	59¢	179	$105	85%	81	Sharp
29d ago	BUY No	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	63¢	122	$77	85%	81	Sharp