sharpside
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Traders/Rank #777

hopedieslast

0x573…5f1a
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$260kvol $10.8M
PnL 30d+$27.8kgains $10.8k · losses $29.6k
PnL 7d+$6,524win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate62.3%adj 61.3% · 30d 65.2%
Open value$316kcash n/a
Positions39 / 269open / all-time
Max drawdown−79.9%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$276kbelow peak −$237kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale77
Adjusted win rateraw 62.3% · shrunk toward 50%53
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable81
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity20

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 39

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No89.5k47.5¢83.5¢$74.7k+$32.2k$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No45.6k92.7¢97.4¢$44.4k+$2,123$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No42.5k83¢90.5¢$38.4k+$3,170$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No34.8k92.2¢94.5¢$32.9k+$815+$72.8k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No35.7k80.1¢85.5¢$30.5k+$1,938$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No19.0k83.3¢84¢$16.0k+$130$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No16.0k85.1¢89.5¢$14.3k+$700+$7,749
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?No13.2k89.5¢97.4¢$12.8k+$1,044$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No10.1k90¢91.5¢$9,246+$155$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No8,95292.6¢98.4¢$8,808+$523$0
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No9,04384¢87.5¢$7,912+$315$0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No7,00088.9¢93.5¢$6,545+$325$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes97.3k34.6¢6¢$5,840−$27.9k−$3,439
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No9,84645.1¢51.5¢$5,071+$627+$163
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No2,00082¢82¢$1,640$0$0
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No1,80583.2¢85.5¢$1,543+$42$0
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No1,77285¢86.5¢$1,533+$27$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No1,50081¢97.5¢$1,463+$248$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No96760.4¢91.5¢$884+$301$0
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Yes14.2k14.8¢5.5¢$780−$1,319−$1,961
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No23243¢81.5¢$189+$89+$10.1k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes26745¢50.5¢$135+$15$0
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes5,5211.6¢1.7¢$91+$2.76$0
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?No6489¢94.5¢$61+$3.53$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No5080¢93.5¢$47+$6.80$0
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?No102k12¢0¢$0−$12.3k$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No75.5k43.1¢0¢$0−$32.5k+$0.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No70.7k24.9¢0¢$0−$17.6k−$6,251
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?No54.7k13.8¢0¢$0−$7,551$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes52.5k5.1¢0¢$0−$2,696$0
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No34.3k38.5¢0¢$0−$13.2k+$184
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Yes28.2k56.5¢0¢$0−$15.9k−$1,713
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No22.3k29.1¢0¢$0−$6,478−$882
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?No22.0k7.1¢0¢$0−$1,562$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No5,59334¢0¢$0−$1,902−$7,911
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No2,00039¢0¢$0−$780$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No1,56631¢0¢$0−$485$0
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?No20019¢0¢$0−$38$0
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?No20033¢0¢$0−$66$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?86¢3,978$3,42162%58
SELL NoUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? 96¢1,000$96062%58
BUY NoWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?85¢1,772$1,50662%58
BUY NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?97¢4,521$4,38662%58
BUY NoIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?85¢1,151$97862%58
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?48.2¢4,299$2,07162%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?5¢1,500$7562%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?5¢1,000$5062%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?5¢6,477$32462%58
SELL NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?28¢800$22462%58
SELL NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?29.3¢896$26262%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?73¢287$20962%58
BUY NoWill any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?84¢3,112$2,61462%58
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?94¢10.0k$9,40062%58
SELL NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?97.9¢45.0k$44.1k62%58Whale
SELL YesWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?6¢1,300$7862%58
BUY NoKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?95¢6,497$6,17262%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?27¢5,579$1,50662%58
BUY YesWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.6¢5,521$8862%58
SELL YesWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?6¢100$6.0062%58