sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,159

Montaigne

0x583…9404
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$172kvol $56.5M
PnL 30d+$2,537gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$515win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate84.8%adj 81.9% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1.08Mcash n/a
Positions37 / 60,753open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$14.3kbelow peak −$23.7kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

51/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75
Adjusted win rateraw 84.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 37

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1.08M50¢92.8¢$1.00M+$461k$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1.08M50¢7.2¢$78.2k−$461k$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Yes13.6k60.3¢0¢$0−$8,226$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes12.7k66.8¢0¢$0−$8,485$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Yes10.5k80.6¢0¢$0−$8,467$0
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Yes8,30045.1¢0¢$0−$3,747$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes8,18437.3¢0¢$0−$3,054$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Yes5,46228¢0¢$0−$1,529$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Yes2,00036.3¢0¢$0−$726$0
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No1,67835.3¢0¢$0−$593$0
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?No1,06049.3¢0¢$0−$522$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes1,00064.8¢0¢$0−$648$0
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Yes66235.2¢0¢$0−$233$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No55640.5¢0¢$0−$225$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No48295.1¢0¢$0−$458$0
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Yes40037.1¢0¢$0−$148$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No34033.6¢0¢$0−$114$0
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes25166.5¢0¢$0−$167$0
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?No20097.3¢0¢$0−$195$0
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes18816.6¢0¢$0−$31$0
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?No18137.2¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No16092¢0¢$0−$147$0
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No16035.7¢0¢$0−$57$0
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No14043.4¢0¢$0−$61$0
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No12465.4¢0¢$0−$81$0
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No10061.4¢0¢$0−$61$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Yes1006.7¢0¢$0−$6.70$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No9234.3¢0¢$0−$32$0
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?No6636.4¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No6027.7¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No6021¢0¢$0−$13$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes6088.1¢0¢$0−$53$0
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No6040¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?Yes4033.4¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?Yes4068.5¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes2356.8¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes538¢0¢$0−$1.96$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUYSpread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5 AND Mexico to score first vs. Ecuador?11¢9$0.9785%51
BUY YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?64¢5$3.2085%51
BUY YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?69¢3$2.0085%51
SELL YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?67¢1$0.9885%51
BUY YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?68¢1$1.0085%51
SELL YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?67¢7$4.9285%51
BUY YesWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?68¢7$5.0085%51
SELL NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?96.7¢20$1985%51
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?45¢20$9.0085%51
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?99.9¢20$2085%51
SELL NoWill Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?96.9¢20$1985%51
SELL NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?61¢20$1285%51
SELL NoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? 97.7¢20$2085%51
SELL NoWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?99.7¢28$2885%51
SELL NoIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?85.7¢20$1785%51
SELL NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?48¢40$1985%51
SELL NoWill JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?88¢40$3585%51
SELL NoUS strike on Cuba by December 31?54¢40$2285%51
SELL NoWill Trump praise Allah again by June 30?82¢40$3385%51
SELL NoWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?99.7¢40$4085%51