sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

QuarterlyComeback

0x5a2…17a6
WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,951vol $277k
PnL 30d+$1,213gains $306 · losses $359
PnL 7d+$423win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate64.6%adj 64.0% · 30d 69.2%
Open value$27.6kcash n/a
Positions53 / 512open / all-time
Max drawdown−35.2%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12.9kbelow peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 64.6% · shrunk toward 50%60
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable90
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity65

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 53

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No8,93190.2¢97¢$8,659+$599$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No4,59274.8¢99¢$4,544+$1,107$0
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No2,34681.3¢93¢$2,181+$273+$64
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No1,87591.6¢96.6¢$1,812+$95$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1,39379¢87.7¢$1,222+$122$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No1,25879.5¢81.5¢$1,025+$25$0
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No97781.9¢91.5¢$894+$94$0
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?Yes74693.8¢88.8¢$663−$37$0
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?No70593.6¢93¢$656−$4.33$0
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?No53094.4¢96.3¢$510+$9.67$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No47184.9¢94.5¢$445+$45$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?No55445.2¢60.5¢$335+$85$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No70835.3¢45.5¢$322+$72$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?No34088.3¢85.5¢$290−$9.61$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes38565¢70.5¢$271+$21$0
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No33375¢80.5¢$268+$18$0
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No25977.2¢96.3¢$250+$50$0
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?No22290¢96.7¢$215+$15$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No23585.2¢87.5¢$205+$5.41$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No20896.3¢97.8¢$203+$3.01$0
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?Yes20995.9¢94.5¢$197−$2.87$0
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes77532.2¢25¢$193−$57$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes24241.4¢66.1¢$160+$60$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No18354.7¢79.5¢$145+$45$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?No14370¢98.6¢$141+$41$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No14768¢95¢$140+$40$0
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?Yes21147.5¢58¢$122+$22$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No11885¢95.5¢$112+$12$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No13077¢83.5¢$108+$8.44$0
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?No13772.9¢76¢$104+$4.29$0
UK Recession in 2026?No11190¢93¢$103+$3.33$0
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026?No10992¢95¢$103+$3.26$0
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No10893¢95.6¢$103+$2.79$0
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?No10495.9¢98.3¢$102+$2.45$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No11686¢87.5¢$102+$1.74$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No10495.8¢97.4¢$102+$1.57$0
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?No11587¢88.3¢$101+$1.49$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No10694¢94¢$100$0$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?No11190¢87.5¢$97−$2.78$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No10083¢96.6¢$97+$14$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?No12282.2¢74¢$90−$9.95$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes1,0679.4¢5.1¢$54−$46$0
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?No5394.8¢94.1¢$50−$0.37$0
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?Yes72513.8¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?Yes38851.6¢0¢$0−$200−$3.87
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes32730.6¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No24781¢0¢$0−$200−$1.52
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?No16230.8¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?No11388.7¢0¢$0−$100−$0.45
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No11091¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No7468¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes6676.2¢0¢$0−$50−$0.48
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Yes4149¢0¢$0−$20−$0.41

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?88.3¢113$10065%68
BUY NoWill Trump visit Greenland by December 31?90¢111$10065%68
BUY NoWill Trump visit Greenland by December 31?90¢111$10065%68
SELL YesFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?6¢385$2365%68
BUY NoWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?93¢108$10065%68
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?52.2¢288$15065%68
BUY NoWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?93.1¢11$1065%68
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?87.9¢569$50065%68
BUY YesWill Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?32.2¢775$25065%68
BUY YesWill Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?95.9¢209$20065%68
BUY YesWill Oura not IPO before January 2027?94.8¢527$50065%68
BUY YesWill Oura not IPO before January 2027?91.3¢219$20065%68
BUY NoWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?94¢53$5065%68
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?67¢75$5065%68
BUY NoWill Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?75¢333$25065%68
BUY YesWill Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?49¢41$2065%68
BUY NoWill Trump say "Taiwan" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?96¢52$5065%68
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?96.6¢1,242$1,20065%68
SELL NoTrump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?9.1¢502$4665%68
BUY YesFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?26¢385$10065%68