| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 184k | 79¢ | 84.5¢ | $156k | +$10.2k | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 30.1k | 88.8¢ | 97.4¢ | $29.3k | +$2,570 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 26.8k | 92.4¢ | 90.5¢ | $24.3k | −$505 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 26.2k | 74.8¢ | 88.5¢ | $23.2k | +$3,595 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 19.7k | 81.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $17.8k | +$1,769 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 14.3k | 74.7¢ | 95.9¢ | $13.7k | +$3,016 | $0 | |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 9,136 | 85¢ | 96.6¢ | $8,821 | +$1,058 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 7,932 | 79.9¢ | 83¢ | $6,583 | +$250 | −$108 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 7,181 | 89.9¢ | 88.5¢ | $6,356 | −$98 | −$3.12 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 6,284 | 94.3¢ | 94.5¢ | $5,938 | +$14 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 5,803 | 75.7¢ | 97.3¢ | $5,643 | +$1,251 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | No | 5,235 | 88.7¢ | 97.5¢ | $5,104 | +$458 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | 5,387 | 89.8¢ | 93.5¢ | $5,037 | +$201 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | No | 5,146 | 84.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $4,914 | +$585 | $0 | |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,303 | 85.4¢ | 88.5¢ | $4,693 | +$167 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 3,456 | 99.4¢ | 99.7¢ | $3,444 | +$9.82 | $0 | |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary? | Yes | 3,667 | 94.1¢ | 93.5¢ | $3,429 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,642 | 85.9¢ | 86.5¢ | $3,151 | +$23 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | No | 3,358 | 93.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $3,140 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,397 | 90¢ | 90.5¢ | $3,074 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 3,352 | 79.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $2,931 | +$263 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | No | 2,711 | 92.4¢ | 92¢ | $2,494 | −$12 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | Yes | 2,344 | 97.6¢ | 98.4¢ | $2,306 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 2,645 | 82.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $2,261 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 2,673 | 54.9¢ | 78.5¢ | $2,098 | +$631 | $0 | |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | 2,554 | 82.7¢ | 81.8¢ | $2,088 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 2,170 | 95.7¢ | 94.5¢ | $2,051 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,220 | 71.9¢ | 91.8¢ | $2,038 | +$442 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,469 | 73.4¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,988 | +$175 | $0 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 2,037 | 97.7¢ | 97.5¢ | $1,985 | −$5.09 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,290 | 79.8¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,912 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026? | No | 1,912 | 97.8¢ | 99.1¢ | $1,893 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 2,566 | 82.9¢ | 71.3¢ | $1,828 | −$299 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,821 | 75.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,721 | +$354 | $0 | |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | No | 2,149 | 81.8¢ | 80¢ | $1,719 | −$39 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? | Yes | 1,761 | 97.4¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,663 | −$52 | $0 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 1,760 | 60.4¢ | 94¢ | $1,654 | +$592 | $0 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 1,587 | 88.6¢ | 98.4¢ | $1,562 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | No | 1,651 | 91.4¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,560 | +$51 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,665 | 55.3¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,540 | +$620 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,645 | 88.2¢ | 91¢ | $1,497 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,543 | 77.1¢ | 96.5¢ | $1,489 | +$300 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,695 | 84.5¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,432 | −$0.60 | −$62 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 1,446 | 73.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,352 | +$286 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 1,550 | 84.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,310 | +$1.25 | $0 | |
| Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | No | 1,546 | 82.5¢ | 82.5¢ | $1,276 | +$0.08 | −$33 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 1,354 | 82.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,266 | +$152 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,336 | 89.9¢ | 92¢ | $1,229 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,324 | 85.1¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,225 | +$98 | $0 | |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 1,216 | 97.3¢ | 98¢ | $1,191 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 1,332 | 69.4¢ | 87.6¢ | $1,167 | +$242 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | No | 1,131 | 94¢ | 99.7¢ | $1,127 | +$63 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 1,126 | 96.4¢ | 99.5¢ | $1,120 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 1,133 | 99.1¢ | 98.5¢ | $1,116 | −$6.26 | $0 | |
| Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? | No | 1,099 | 97.4¢ | 98.8¢ | $1,085 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 2,000 | 49.5¢ | 53.7¢ | $1,073 | +$83 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,152 | 76.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,054 | +$171 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 1,066 | 89.5¢ | 98.5¢ | $1,050 | +$96 | $0 | |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | No | 1,426 | 77.8¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,048 | −$61 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 9? | Yes | 1,042 | 96.8¢ | 97.8¢ | $1,019 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 9? | Yes | 1,000 | 99¢ | 99.5¢ | $995 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 2,500 | 43.4¢ | 39.7¢ | $991 | −$93 | $0 | |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1,034 | 95.5¢ | 95.8¢ | $990 | +$2.29 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,194 | 65.2¢ | 78.5¢ | $937 | +$159 | +$21 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | Yes | 981 | 96.9¢ | 94.4¢ | $926 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,110 | 91¢ | 81.5¢ | $905 | −$105 | $0 | |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 899 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $890 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9? | No | 887 | 98.9¢ | 98.8¢ | $876 | −$0.54 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 977 | 49.5¢ | 89¢ | $870 | +$386 | $0 | |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? | No | 864 | 89.7¢ | 96.7¢ | $836 | +$61 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 833 | 94.9¢ | 98.9¢ | $823 | +$33 | $0 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | No | 932 | 88.4¢ | 86.5¢ | $806 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 799 | 98.8¢ | 99.6¢ | $796 | +$6.42 | $0 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 863 | 63.6¢ | 90.5¢ | $781 | +$232 | $0 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | 865 | 88.6¢ | 89.5¢ | $774 | +$7.44 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | Yes | 780 | 98.3¢ | 98.8¢ | $771 | +$4.29 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 898 | 83.9¢ | 85.5¢ | $768 | +$14 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | Yes | 744 | 97.5¢ | 99.9¢ | $743 | +$18 | +$19 | |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 790 | 68.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $739 | +$199 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 825 | 87.9¢ | 89.5¢ | $738 | +$13 | +$23 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? | No | 768 | 93.2¢ | 95.5¢ | $733 | +$18 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 834 | 87¢ | 86.5¢ | $721 | −$4.17 | $0 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 734 | 84¢ | 97.2¢ | $713 | +$97 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 3,496 | 68.6¢ | 19¢ | $664 | −$1,736 | −$706 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 787 | 77¢ | 82.5¢ | $649 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 777 | 76.6¢ | 81¢ | $629 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 612 | 94.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $600 | +$21 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 766 | 78.4¢ | 78¢ | $598 | −$3.40 | −$1,004 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 599 | 99.1¢ | 99.2¢ | $594 | +$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 666 | 73¢ | 86.5¢ | $576 | +$90 | $0 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 633 | 74.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $567 | +$95 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? | Yes | 557 | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | $557 | +$7.19 | −$2.51 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 575 | 77.8¢ | 95¢ | $546 | +$99 | $0 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 544 | 91¢ | 97.6¢ | $531 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? | No | 569 | 87¢ | 90¢ | $512 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? | No | 665 | 85¢ | 75.7¢ | $503 | −$62 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | No | 766 | 80.7¢ | 65.5¢ | $502 | −$116 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 575 | 67.4¢ | 83.5¢ | $480 | +$93 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 495 | 94.7¢ | 96¢ | $475 | +$6.29 | $0 | |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 476 | 99.2¢ | 99.1¢ | $472 | −$0.48 | $0 | |