| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 36.9k | 55.3¢ | 18.5¢ | $6,825 | −$13.6k | +$4.49 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 6,072 | 38¢ | 57.8¢ | $3,507 | +$1,202 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,814 | 47¢ | 21.5¢ | $1,895 | −$2,252 | −$624 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3,262 | 30.9¢ | 41.9¢ | $1,365 | +$357 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | Yes | 11.4k | 10.2¢ | 10.5¢ | $1,199 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31? | No | 1,382 | 53¢ | 69¢ | $954 | +$221 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,054 | 88¢ | 88.5¢ | $933 | +$5.27 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | No | 3,407 | 48.8¢ | 24.5¢ | $835 | −$829 | $0 | |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 814 | 74¢ | 91.5¢ | $744 | +$142 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 43¢ | 36¢ | $720 | −$140 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 1,168 | 55¢ | 54.5¢ | $636 | −$5.84 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 62.6¢ | 57.5¢ | $575 | −$51 | +$36 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 54.4¢ | 48.4¢ | $484 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | Yes | 850 | 40.2¢ | 50.5¢ | $429 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3,552 | 28.4¢ | 10.5¢ | $373 | −$635 | −$4.18 | |
| JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31? | Yes | 347 | 80¢ | 97.1¢ | $337 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 500 | 50¢ | 63.5¢ | $318 | +$68 | +$23 | |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 59.5k | 0.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $268 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 300 | 70¢ | 84.5¢ | $254 | +$44 | +$39 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 626 | 34.9¢ | 35.5¢ | $222 | +$3.84 | $0 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 65¢ | 73.5¢ | $221 | +$26 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | Yes | 1,718 | 24.5¢ | 12.5¢ | $215 | −$207 | +$42 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,198 | 22¢ | 9.5¢ | $209 | −$275 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 200 | 84.5¢ | 97¢ | $194 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | Yes | 1,410 | 54.8¢ | 13.5¢ | $190 | −$582 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | Yes | 918 | 48.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $179 | −$268 | +$44 | |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 200 | 76¢ | 87.6¢ | $175 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | No | 203 | 60¢ | 86.5¢ | $175 | +$54 | −$1,135 | |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | No | 193 | 77.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $167 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 852 | 39.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $166 | −$172 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,507 | 29¢ | 6.5¢ | $163 | −$565 | −$4,241 | |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 691 | 40¢ | 23.5¢ | $162 | −$114 | +$30 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 400 | 39.6¢ | 37¢ | $148 | −$11 | $0 | |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | Yes | 1,925 | 24¢ | 7.7¢ | $147 | −$315 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1,000 | 5.2¢ | 13.2¢ | $132 | +$80 | $0 | |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 130 | 75.7¢ | 93.7¢ | $122 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,279 | 19.5¢ | 5.2¢ | $118 | −$325 | +$519 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 300 | 29¢ | 38.5¢ | $116 | +$29 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | Yes | 1,019 | 28.5¢ | 11¢ | $112 | −$179 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 425 | 15.5¢ | 26¢ | $111 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 49.6¢ | 20¢ | $100 | −$148 | $0 | |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026? | No | 163 | 68¢ | 58.5¢ | $96 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 100 | 79¢ | 95.5¢ | $96 | +$17 | $0 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 100 | 84¢ | 94.5¢ | $95 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 109 | 76¢ | 80.5¢ | $88 | +$4.92 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 350 | 36.4¢ | 22¢ | $77 | −$51 | +$29 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | Yes | 1,343 | 18¢ | 5¢ | $67 | −$175 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | Yes | 621 | 8¢ | 10.5¢ | $65 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | Yes | 300 | 20¢ | 19.5¢ | $59 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 21.5¢ | 28¢ | $56 | +$13 | $0 | |
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? | No | 55 | 45¢ | 86.1¢ | $47 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 140 | 56.7¢ | 33.2¢ | $46 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31? | No | 60 | 48.3¢ | 67¢ | $40 | +$11 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | Yes | 342 | 24.1¢ | 11.5¢ | $39 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | Yes | 148 | 26¢ | 26.4¢ | $39 | +$0.52 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 40¢ | 19¢ | $38 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? | Yes | 200 | 27¢ | 18.5¢ | $37 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 200 | 11.2¢ | 18¢ | $36 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 1,757 | 9¢ | 2¢ | $35 | −$123 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 43 | 73.6¢ | 80.6¢ | $35 | +$3.02 | $0 | |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | Yes | 970 | 11¢ | 3.6¢ | $34 | −$72 | $0 | |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | Yes | 340 | 19.3¢ | 10¢ | $34 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Yes | 500 | 9¢ | 6.5¢ | $33 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? | No | 80 | 63.2¢ | 40.5¢ | $32 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | Yes | 1,610 | 9¢ | 2¢ | $32 | −$113 | $0 | |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027? | No | 33 | 85¢ | 92.5¢ | $31 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 649 | 14¢ | 4.5¢ | $29 | −$62 | +$17 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 620 | 16¢ | 4.5¢ | $28 | −$71 | +$6.00 | |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Yes | 200 | 15¢ | 13.5¢ | $27 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | Yes | 300 | 17¢ | 8.8¢ | $26 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 145 | 15¢ | 17.5¢ | $25 | +$3.61 | $0 | |
| Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 12¢ | 20.8¢ | $21 | +$8.80 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 61¢ | 19¢ | $19 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Putin visits US by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 8¢ | 9.5¢ | $19 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 123 | 49¢ | 13.5¢ | $17 | −$44 | +$13 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | Yes | 1,475 | 4.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $11 | −$54 | $0 | |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 101 | 12.9¢ | 9¢ | $9.10 | −$3.99 | $0 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Yes | 112 | 51.1¢ | 6.5¢ | $7.27 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | No | 250 | 26¢ | 2.5¢ | $6.13 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | Yes | 43 | 20¢ | 12.5¢ | $5.39 | −$3.24 | $0 | |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | No | 270 | 55.6¢ | 1.9¢ | $5.13 | −$145 | −$10 | |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes | 100 | 53¢ | 4.5¢ | $4.50 | −$49 | −$3.00 | |
| Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? | No | 7 | 59.6¢ | 58.2¢ | $4.25 | −$0.10 | +$124 | |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 100 | 24¢ | 3.6¢ | $3.60 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? | Yes | 300 | 4.4¢ | 1.2¢ | $3.45 | −$9.75 | $0 | |
| Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 25 | 1.2¢ | 2.9¢ | $0.72 | +$0.42 | $0 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? | Yes | 28.7k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | Yes | 26.0k | 35¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9,128 | −$511 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | Yes | 7,938 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$79 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 6,876 | 45.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,115 | −$19 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | Yes | 6,503 | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$748 | +$14 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | Yes | 6,300 | 68.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,301 | −$484 | |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 7? | No | 4,962 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | Yes | 4,747 | 27.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,309 | $0 | |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8? | Up | 4,516 | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$621 | −$20 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | No | 4,357 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$65 | $0 | |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,664 | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$198 | −$7.49 | |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 3,405 | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$226 | −$48 | |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,296 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | −$1.64 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 3,028 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$306 | +$1.84 | |