sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,869

Pantheon1

0x606…6b3a
SharpWR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4,786vol $495k
PnL 30d+$387gains $337 · losses $198
PnL 7d+$116win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate71.0%adj 70.1% · 30d 78.9%
Open value$12.6kcash n/a
Positions43 / 519open / all-time
Max drawdown−27.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$5,202below peak −$417Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

72/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale53
Adjusted win rateraw 71.0% · shrunk toward 50%75
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity73

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 43

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No3,30195.9¢97.8¢$3,227+$61+$25
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No1,25586.1¢95.4¢$1,197+$117+$3.30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No1,13491.9¢94.5¢$1,072+$30+$17
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?No79090.3¢94¢$742+$29+$15
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No70091.3¢94.5¢$661+$23$0
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?No75077¢79¢$593+$15$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No50095.8¢97.3¢$486+$7.25$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No53882.8¢89.5¢$482+$36+$85
Iran leadership change by October 31?No41995¢98.4¢$413+$14+$14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No40094¢96.7¢$387+$11$0
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?No35089.9¢95.5¢$334+$20+$19
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?No30081¢92¢$276+$33$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No30076.7¢87.5¢$263+$33$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No30086¢86.5¢$260+$1.50+$21
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No28085.3¢91.5¢$256+$17+$11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No23586.3¢96.7¢$227+$24+$28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No20088¢97.5¢$195+$19$0
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?No20088¢93.5¢$187+$11$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No16365.1¢95.9¢$156+$50+$30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No14683.9¢95.6¢$140+$17+$20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No15086.3¢92.5¢$139+$9.25$0
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026?No13092.8¢93.5¢$122+$0.95$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No14579.4¢83.5¢$121+$5.87+$126
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?No11095.7¢95.6¢$105−$0.11$0
Iran leadership change by November 30?No11091¢94.5¢$104+$3.84$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No10064¢82.5¢$83+$19+$6.00
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?No6966.5¢90.5¢$62+$16$0
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes18031.7¢21¢$38−$19+$106
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?No4640.1¢59.5¢$28+$8.98$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No5031¢54.5¢$27+$12$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No2580.3¢92¢$23+$2.92+$12
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?No3043¢76.3¢$23+$9.97$0
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Yes6338¢36¢$23−$1.26+$12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No3060¢73¢$22+$3.87$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?No3359¢65.5¢$21+$2.13$0
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Yes13530¢10¢$14−$27$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes9285.5¢14.5¢$13−$65−$144
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yes25553.2¢5¢$13−$123−$653
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?Yes5062¢23.5¢$12−$19$0
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No1287.4¢97.8¢$12+$1.24+$35
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Yes4058¢22.5¢$9.00−$14$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes973¢2.1¢$1.99−$0.92$0
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No185¢89.5¢$1.08+$0.05+$5.72

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?4¢255$1071%72Sharp
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?78.3¢200$15771%72Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?86¢300$25871%72Sharp
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?31¢50$1671%72Sharp
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?68¢9$5.9471%72Sharp
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?47¢26$1271%72Sharp
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢295$23371%72Sharp
BUY NoEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?93¢50$4771%72Sharp
BUY YesWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?99.1¢323$32071%72Sharp
BUY YesWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?99.2¢401$39771%72Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?70¢42$2971%72Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?88¢200$17671%72Sharp
BUY NoEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?93¢181$16971%72Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?60¢30$1871%72Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?74¢195$14471%72Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?91¢50$4671%72Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?88¢50$4471%72Sharp
SELL NoUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?87¢150$13171%72Sharp
BUY NoIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?77¢250$19371%72Sharp
BUY NoIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?77¢500$38571%72Sharp