| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 207k | 29.9¢ | 80.5¢ | $167k | +$105k | +$120k | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 72.3k | 35.7¢ | 63.5¢ | $45.9k | +$20.1k | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 202k | 19¢ | 15.5¢ | $31.3k | −$6,992 | +$451 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 69.9k | 25¢ | 38.5¢ | $26.9k | +$9,422 | +$977 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 28.6k | 79¢ | 91¢ | $26.0k | +$3,443 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 26.0k | 50.6¢ | 86.5¢ | $22.5k | +$9,342 | +$48 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 17.8k | 34.4¢ | 85.7¢ | $15.3k | +$9,148 | +$676 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 21.7k | 45¢ | 63.5¢ | $13.7k | +$4,009 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 20.6k | 46¢ | 64.5¢ | $13.3k | +$3,805 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 13.3k | 37.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $11.9k | +$6,915 | +$13.1k | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 47.5k | 21.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $9,270 | −$959 | −$2.96 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Yes | 163k | 8.9¢ | 5.5¢ | $8,959 | −$5,587 | +$717 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 10.2k | 77.1¢ | 84¢ | $8,583 | +$700 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 54.0k | 6.2¢ | 13.2¢ | $7,096 | +$3,775 | +$2,349 | |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 817k | 0.9¢ | 0.9¢ | $6,946 | −$161 | +$133 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | No | 9,228 | 64.4¢ | 69¢ | $6,367 | +$424 | $0 | |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 196k | 5.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $6,169 | −$5,145 | +$5,554 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | No | 6,784 | 87.9¢ | 86.5¢ | $5,868 | −$94 | $0 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 4,952 | 71.2¢ | 97.3¢ | $4,815 | +$1,291 | +$531 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,000 | 64.8¢ | 85.5¢ | $4,275 | +$1,033 | +$252 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 4,579 | 86.9¢ | 87.5¢ | $4,007 | +$26 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,394 | 21.5¢ | 52¢ | $3,841 | +$2,253 | +$2,350 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 39.1k | 13.2¢ | 9.5¢ | $3,710 | −$1,428 | −$159 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | 32.9k | 12.3¢ | 11¢ | $3,597 | −$444 | +$258 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 4,080 | 67.6¢ | 85.5¢ | $3,489 | +$729 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 5,000 | 50¢ | 51.5¢ | $2,573 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,323 | 33.2¢ | 75.5¢ | $2,509 | +$1,407 | +$1,345 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5,000 | 50¢ | 48.6¢ | $2,428 | −$73 | $0 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 74¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,389 | +$538 | +$577 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15.1k | 24.8¢ | 15.5¢ | $2,336 | −$1,402 | +$3,796 | |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | No | 8,643 | 29.1¢ | 27¢ | $2,333 | −$180 | +$277 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 8,450 | 24.5¢ | 27¢ | $2,282 | +$211 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 2,500 | 87¢ | 90.5¢ | $2,263 | +$88 | +$515 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 4,577 | 50.7¢ | 47.5¢ | $2,174 | −$145 | +$47 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 4,400 | 38.6¢ | 44.5¢ | $1,958 | +$261 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 2,182 | 47.8¢ | 88.5¢ | $1,931 | +$887 | +$6,884 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | Yes | 34.8k | 7.6¢ | 5.5¢ | $1,916 | −$739 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.7k | 10.4¢ | 7.5¢ | $1,854 | −$718 | −$605 | |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 5,018 | 23.2¢ | 35.5¢ | $1,781 | +$615 | +$297 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? | Yes | 22.8k | 9.8¢ | 7.5¢ | $1,710 | −$518 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 10.2k | 19.6¢ | 15.6¢ | $1,598 | −$408 | +$90 | |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 2,968 | 58.6¢ | 53.5¢ | $1,588 | −$150 | +$51 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | 4,967 | 30.5¢ | 31.5¢ | $1,565 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | Yes | 3,099 | 55.7¢ | 49.5¢ | $1,534 | −$193 | $0 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 1,686 | 31.9¢ | 87.6¢ | $1,478 | +$941 | +$185 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 8,428 | 9.9¢ | 17.5¢ | $1,475 | +$638 | +$212 | |
| Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | Yes | 5,786 | 26.6¢ | 24¢ | $1,389 | −$153 | +$210 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,556 | 54.9¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,330 | +$475 | +$2,102 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,333 | 95.8¢ | 99¢ | $1,319 | +$42 | −$342 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,928 | 38.9¢ | 44.5¢ | $1,303 | +$165 | $0 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 23.2k | 16.2¢ | 5.5¢ | $1,278 | −$2,478 | −$3,596 | |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | No | 2,113 | 48¢ | 58.5¢ | $1,236 | +$222 | +$51 | |
| House control favorite on November 2? | Democratic Party | 1,208 | 95¢ | 98.6¢ | $1,191 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | No | 1,220 | 91.3¢ | 95¢ | $1,159 | +$45 | +$4.59 | |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | Yes | 1,681 | 50.3¢ | 67¢ | $1,126 | +$280 | +$147 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 6,221 | 17.5¢ | 18¢ | $1,117 | +$29 | +$1,315 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 54.5k | 8.2¢ | 2¢ | $1,089 | −$3,398 | −$48 | |
| Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? | No | 2,185 | 29.6¢ | 49.5¢ | $1,082 | +$435 | +$50 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 1,310 | 75.9¢ | 80.2¢ | $1,050 | +$56 | +$233 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | No | 983 | 81.7¢ | 97.9¢ | $962 | +$159 | $0 | |
| Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31? | No | 955 | 88.3¢ | 98.3¢ | $939 | +$96 | $0 | |
| Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31? | No | 1,112 | 50.4¢ | 82.5¢ | $918 | +$357 | $0 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 1,009 | 34.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $913 | +$565 | +$2,013 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 1,717 | 34.8¢ | 48.5¢ | $833 | +$234 | +$169 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 23.1k | 8.1¢ | 3.6¢ | $820 | −$1,042 | $0 | |
| Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2? | No | 864 | 74¢ | 88.5¢ | $765 | +$126 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 1,311 | 36¢ | 58.2¢ | $763 | +$291 | $0 | |
| Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? | No | 919 | 62¢ | 75¢ | $689 | +$119 | $0 | |
| Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31? | No | 623 | 96.6¢ | 98¢ | $610 | +$8.41 | $0 | |
| Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat? | Yes | 1,000 | 63¢ | 59.5¢ | $595 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 634 | 87.5¢ | 86¢ | $545 | −$9.68 | −$4.89 | |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 964 | 54.8¢ | 54.5¢ | $526 | −$2.63 | +$16 | |
| Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31? | No | 873 | 41¢ | 58¢ | $506 | +$148 | $0 | |
| Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? | No | 2,596 | 11.9¢ | 19¢ | $493 | +$184 | +$43 | |
| Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election? | No | 554 | 58.8¢ | 86¢ | $476 | +$151 | +$181 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | 500 | 75¢ | 94.5¢ | $473 | +$98 | $0 | |
| Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? | No | 2,235 | 16.6¢ | 21¢ | $469 | +$98 | +$12 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 1,814 | 17.2¢ | 25¢ | $454 | +$141 | +$78 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? | Yes | 457 | 22.9¢ | 95.9¢ | $438 | +$334 | +$3.35 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 4,554 | 36.8¢ | 9.5¢ | $433 | −$1,241 | $0 | |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 7,823 | 19.6¢ | 5.5¢ | $430 | −$1,105 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | Yes | 1,300 | 14.8¢ | 32.8¢ | $426 | +$233 | $0 | |
| Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election? | No | 1,485 | 39.6¢ | 28.5¢ | $423 | −$165 | +$1.63 | |
| Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? | Yes | 2,469 | 5.1¢ | 16.6¢ | $409 | +$284 | +$54 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,216 | 10.6¢ | 5.7¢ | $408 | −$357 | $0 | |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | 3,793 | 41.9¢ | 10.5¢ | $398 | −$1,192 | +$1,121 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 411 | 57.9¢ | 94.5¢ | $389 | +$150 | +$141 | |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 21.9k | 2.1¢ | 1.8¢ | $383 | −$68 | +$17 | |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Yes | 1,006 | 51.7¢ | 38¢ | $382 | −$138 | $0 | |
| Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? | Yes | 720 | 55.4¢ | 50.5¢ | $364 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election? | No | 1,423 | 19.2¢ | 24.5¢ | $349 | +$76 | +$31 | |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | Yes | 1,739 | 17.7¢ | 19¢ | $330 | +$23 | +$26 | |
| Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election? | No | 1,344 | 23.2¢ | 24.5¢ | $329 | +$17 | +$27 | |
| Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 20.1¢ | 30.4¢ | $304 | +$103 | $0 | |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24.1k | 1.6¢ | 1.3¢ | $302 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? | Yes | 2,660 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $266 | +$80 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? | Yes | 5,227 | 10.4¢ | 5.1¢ | $264 | −$279 | −$13 | |
| Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? | Yes | 2,091 | 12.3¢ | 12.5¢ | $261 | +$4.73 | +$1.43 | |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? | Yes | 3,401 | 7.7¢ | 7.5¢ | $255 | −$7.54 | +$37 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,036 | 26.4¢ | 24.5¢ | $254 | −$20 | +$32 | |
