sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,707

Midas14

0x618…3834
WR 70+WR 60+1y+OtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1,252vol $164k
PnL 30d+$209gains $237 · losses $98
PnL 7d+$2.18win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate74.2%adj 73.3% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$6,524cash n/a
Positions43 / 694open / all-time
Max drawdown−43.8%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 14h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,764below peak −$461Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale44
Adjusted win rateraw 74.2% · shrunk toward 50%83
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity56

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 43

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No2,30087¢88.5¢$2,035+$35$0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?No66976.5¢91.5¢$612+$100+$4.11
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes51483.1¢99.2¢$510+$83+$16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No38089.1¢94.6¢$359+$21$0
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No20088¢97.1¢$194+$18$0
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No20091¢94.5¢$189+$7.00$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No20090.2¢94.5¢$189+$8.50$0
AI bubble burst in 2026?No20076.5¢94¢$188+$35$0
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?No20091.5¢93.1¢$186+$3.20$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No15096¢97.5¢$146+$2.17+$1.15
Amazon 2026 capex above $200B?Yes15970.9¢91.5¢$145+$33$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?No15282.5¢87¢$132+$6.87−$9.56
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?No13277.5¢95.3¢$126+$24$0
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?No13681.6¢88¢$119+$8.63+$237
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?No15085¢79.5¢$119−$8.25$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No10787¢94¢$101+$7.50$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No10091.3¢98.3¢$98+$6.90+$4.75
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No10081¢97¢$97+$16$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No10083¢97¢$97+$14$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No10083¢85.5¢$86+$2.50$0
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No8087¢94.5¢$76+$6.00$0
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?No7690¢86.4¢$66−$2.79$0
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No6685.4¢97¢$64+$7.66+$1.08
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Yes9069.1¢71.5¢$64+$2.15$0
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No6093¢99.2¢$59+$3.69$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No7078¢77.5¢$54−$0.35$0
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?No5081¢95.4¢$48+$7.17$0
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?No5091¢93.5¢$47+$1.25$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No5980.9¢74.5¢$44−$3.77−$19
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No4091¢92.5¢$37+$0.60$0
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?No3391¢97.9¢$32+$2.25$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes26521.9¢11.5¢$30−$28$0
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No3191¢96.2¢$29+$1.57$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No15018¢18.5¢$28+$0.75$0
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?Yes2777¢95.8¢$25+$4.99+$13
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Yes2090¢98.6¢$20+$1.71$0
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?No5048¢32.5¢$16−$7.75$0
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?Yes1583¢94.8¢$14+$1.76$0
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?No1386¢95.9¢$12+$1.28$0
OpenAI acquired before 2027?No1292.3¢97.3¢$12+$0.60$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,6361.2¢0.7¢$11−$8.32$0
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T?Yes465¢9.5¢$4.37+$2.07$0
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2044¢0¢$0−$8.80$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?87¢36$3174%68
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?87¢253$22074%68
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?87¢2,011$1,75074%68
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?15¢200$3074%68
SELL YesWill Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?33.3¢61$2074%68
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?97.2¢245$23874%68
BUY YesWill Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?84.6¢61$5274%68
BUY NoWill OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?91¢50$4674%68
SELL YesWill Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?28¢36$1074%68
BUY NoWill GameStop acquire eBay?92¢50$4674%68
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?83¢50$4274%68
BUY YesMeta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?66¢50$3374%68
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?47¢25$1274%68
SELL NoGemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?86.2¢175$15074%68
SELL YesWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?60.4¢40$2474%68
SELL YesWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?60.4¢120$7374%68
BUY YesWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?50¢80$4074%68
BUY YesWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?63¢80$5074%68
SELL NoAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?75¢42$3174%68
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?70¢59$4174%68