sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,085

1walrus

0x656…e164
PnL 10k+CulturePoliticsWeatherSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$34.2kvol $2.83M
PnL 30d+$1,597gains $15.5k · losses $32.0k
PnL 7d+$677win rate 7d 22.8%
Win rate55.8%adj 55.6% · 30d 26.1%
Open value$15.2kcash n/a
Positions65 / 1,275open / all-time
Max drawdown−41.3%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 35m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$35.6kbelow peak −$22.6kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 55.8% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity59

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Yesclosed+$18.5kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$14.6kWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? · Noclosed+$8,639Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? · Noclosed+$8,082Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? · Noclosed+$3,948

Worst markets

Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Noclosed−$18.3kWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? · Noclosed−$14.0kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed−$12.7kWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? · Yesclosed−$7,303Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? · Yesclosed−$3,492

Open positions · 65

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?No7,10091.1¢91.1¢$6,472+$1.17$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?No2,11694¢94.9¢$2,007+$18$0
Will Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon?Yes1,04298.9¢97.8¢$1,019−$12$0
Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?No58697.5¢99.4¢$582+$11$0
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No75357.5¢73¢$550+$117$0
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?Yes1,15447¢31¢$358−$185−$37
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes72538.4¢44¢$319+$40$0
Will Summit be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes79231.2¢36.4¢$288+$40$0
Will any player go Beyond Godlike at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes27063¢95.9¢$259+$89−$22
Will Summit be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?No24292¢99.3¢$241+$18$0
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Yes79839.2¢26.5¢$212−$101$0
Will Haven be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes56616.2¢33.6¢$190+$99+$62
Will a Divine Rapier be purchased at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes19352¢97.1¢$187+$87−$3.25
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,148,000 on December 31?Yes8445.5¢21.6¢$182+$136$0
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes34637.3¢52.5¢$181+$53+$0.25
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes35045¢45.5¢$159+$1.75$0
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes28438.2¢54¢$153+$45+$6.61
Will one team kill two Tormentors in a single game at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes15773.1¢95.2¢$149+$35−$19
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by the void?No14598¢98.1¢$142+$0.07$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a hoglin?No12595¢98.8¢$124+$4.76$0
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?Yes40114.1¢27.7¢$111+$55$0
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No18053¢61.5¢$111+$15$0
Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes19468.5¢56.1¢$108−$24−$63
Will there be a Rampage at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes17329¢57.5¢$99+$49$0
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?Yes51717¢17¢$88+$0.05$0
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,148,000 and $1,159,000 on December 31?Yes41811¢20.5¢$86+$40$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a creeper in a 7th timeframe?No8895.5¢93.5¢$82−$1.76$0
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes14851.6¢47¢$70−$6.84+$6.77
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in October?No8077.2¢80.3¢$64+$2.40$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by powder snow?No5395.7¢99.9¢$53+$2.19$0
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?Yes33811.2¢14¢$47+$9.43$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden?No4798¢99.6¢$47+$0.73$0
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?Yes21719.1¢21.5¢$47+$5.30$0
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?No15430¢24.7¢$38−$8.27+$9.10
Will Lotus be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes11132¢34¢$38+$2.22$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by an explosion in a 6th timeframe?No5693.9¢63.5¢$36−$17$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?Yes7045¢48.5¢$34+$2.45$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a phantom?No3094¢99.5¢$30+$1.64$0
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Yes9804.6¢2.6¢$25−$20$0
Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?Yes2519¢9.5¢$24+$1.25$0
Will a team win a game after trailing by 10,000+ gold at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?No90721.1¢2.5¢$23−$169$0
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?Yes20014.4¢11¢$22−$6.77$0
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,159,000 and $1,168,000 on December 31?Yes2576.6¢8.4¢$21+$4.49$0
Will Simon peak at Category 3?Yes6532¢32¢$21$0$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a slime?No2197¢99.5¢$21+$0.51$0
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Yes40012¢4.9¢$19−$29$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No2076¢96.1¢$19+$4.01$0
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?No1589.6¢91.4¢$14+$0.27$0
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?No1385.5¢75.6¢$10−$1.32−$31
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes9110.3¢9.6¢$8.69−$0.67$0
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Yes1049.9¢73.5¢$7.08+$2.27−$0.53
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes50011.2¢1.3¢$6.25−$50$0
Will jawgemo have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes5011¢11.5¢$5.75+$0.25$0
Will lukxo have the most first bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes407¢13¢$5.18+$2.38$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a blaze?No593¢95.7¢$4.79+$0.14$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No882.8¢47.8¢$3.98−$2.91−$13
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Yes688¢3¢$2.04−$3.40$0
Will Francis have the most first bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes407¢4.7¢$1.86−$0.94$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No159.3¢97.4¢$1.43+$0.56−$19
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Yes2024¢5.5¢$1.10−$3.70$0
Will Timotino have the most first bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes217¢4.9¢$1.03−$0.44+$8.54
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,168,000 on December 31?Yes1721.2¢0.5¢$0.95−$1.18$0
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Yes2025¢3.1¢$0.61−$4.39$0
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes545.2¢1¢$0.54−$2.28$0
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?Yes18¢14¢$0.14+$0.06$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?77.8¢81$6356%63
BUY YesWill Simon peak at Category 4?55¢61$3456%63
BUY YesWill Simon peak at Category 3?32¢65$2156%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by the void?98¢145$14256%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden?98¢47$4656%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a slime?97¢21$2056%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a creeper in a 7th timeframe?96¢51$4956%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a hoglin?96¢20$1956%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by an explosion in a 6th timeframe?93.9¢56$5356%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by powder snow?95.7¢53$5056%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a blaze?93¢5$4.6556%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a phantom?94¢30$2856%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a creeper in a 7th timeframe?94.8¢37$3556%63
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a hoglin?94.8¢105$10056%63
BUY YesWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?17¢517$8856%63
BUY YesWill Francis have the most first bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026?7¢40$2.8056%63
BUY YesWill lukxo have the most first bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026?7¢40$2.8056%63
BUY NoWill Timotino have the highest ACS at VALORANT Champions 2026?48.3¢20$9.6656%63
BUY NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?94¢2,116$1,98956%63
BUY YesWill jawgemo have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?11¢50$5.5056%63