sharpside
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Traders/Rank #765

dromedaryy

0x657…b198
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsCryptoOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$264kvol $6.60M
PnL 30d−$20.9kgains $266k · losses $53.0k
PnL 7d+$10.3kwin rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate76.9%adj 65.2% · 30d 73.9%
Open value$547kcash n/a
Positions77 / 109open / all-time
Max drawdown−50.3%of equity peak
Account age55dlast trade 18h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$280kbelow peak −$1,467Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

47/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale77
Adjusted win rateraw 76.9% · shrunk toward 50%63
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable68
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity50

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 77

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes111k28.6¢100¢$111k+$79.1k−$742
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No138k66.8¢63.5¢$87.3k−$4,498−$2,082
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Yes790k7.9¢9.5¢$75.1k+$12.5k+$4,378
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No61.3k27.9¢100¢$61.3k+$44.2k−$129
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No48.8k30.7¢100¢$48.8k+$33.9k−$184
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No32.3k92.5¢96.5¢$31.2k+$1,292$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes34.4k58.9¢85.7¢$29.5k+$9,204+$22.2k
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Yes115k17.1¢18.5¢$21.3k+$1,642+$624
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No24.6k66.6¢80.5¢$19.8k+$3,412+$5,538
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes13.8k27.8¢100¢$13.8k+$9,959−$30
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Yes32.6k23.1¢21.5¢$7,002−$511$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes127k16.7¢5.1¢$6,392−$14.7k+$3,385
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes110k6¢5.5¢$6,062−$551$0
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes5,78027.1¢100¢$5,780+$4,215−$46
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes40.0k16¢13.5¢$5,400−$1,000$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No5,65969.3¢86.5¢$4,895+$973$0
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes5,68050¢67¢$3,802+$963$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No4,57441.5¢42.2¢$1,928+$30$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes11.2k15¢16.5¢$1,850+$168+$5,413
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes17.8k19¢6.5¢$1,158−$2,228$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes5,21928.2¢14.5¢$757−$717$0
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No50938¢100¢$509+$315−$4.79
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No2,25526¢20.5¢$462−$124$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes2,49817¢15.5¢$387−$37$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes1,67330.7¢20.5¢$343−$171$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No42962.9¢78.5¢$337+$67$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes39287¢77¢$302−$39$0
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes1,72826¢15.9¢$275−$174$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No30560¢81.5¢$249+$66$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes9,99559.7¢1.2¢$115−$5,856−$345
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No55230.7¢19.5¢$108−$62$0
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes92420.3¢9.5¢$88−$99$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No3677¢99.5¢$35+$7.99$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes395k0.6¢0¢$0−$2,465−$52
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?No100k28.3¢0¢$0−$28.4k−$666
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No100k12¢0¢$0−$12.0k$0
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes80.3k46.3¢0¢$0−$37.2k−$695
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes77.1k1.9¢0¢$0−$1,438−$1,184
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?No66.9k13¢0¢$0−$8,716−$194
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No64.2k27.4¢0¢$0−$17.6k−$254
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes61.5k2.5¢0¢$0−$1,553−$0.03
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes61.5k2.5¢0¢$0−$1,553−$0.03
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight, Main Card)Nursulton Ruziboev50.0k35¢0¢$0−$17.5k−$569
Dolphins vs. 49ersDolphins50.0k11¢0¢$0−$5,500$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?Yes39.9k0.7¢0¢$0−$279−$19
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes36.2k22.8¢0¢$0−$8,239$0
Chargers vs. BillsChargers23.3k0.1¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026?No21.1k23.7¢0¢$0−$4,996−$8.44
Cardinals vs. 49ersCardinals19.9k5¢0¢$0−$996$0
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?No18.3k7.9¢0¢$0−$1,442−$28
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Yes16.3k30.5¢0¢$0−$4,968−$242
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?No16.0k4¢0¢$0−$640$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Yes13.9k2.5¢0¢$0−$347−$14
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?Yes9,1531.8¢0¢$0−$165−$11
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?Yes8,95022¢0¢$0−$1,969−$108
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No8,35011.9¢0¢$0−$990$0
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No7,56410¢0¢$0−$756−$27
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?No7,06525¢0¢$0−$1,766−$93
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Yes4,9389¢0¢$0−$444−$16
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?No3,28112¢0¢$0−$394$0
Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?Under2,86840¢0¢$0−$1,147−$28
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No2,4641¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?No2,2663.3¢0¢$0−$75−$2.91
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes1,8284.9¢0¢$0−$90−$3.41
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No1,6831.1¢0¢$0−$19$0
Lions vs. BillsLions1,1788.9¢0¢$0−$105−$0.14
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Yes1,1320.1¢0¢$0−$1.13−$0.05
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?No6941¢0¢$0−$6.93−$0.27
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes60719¢0¢$0−$115$0
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by June 30, 2027?No45019¢0¢$0−$86−$4.85
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2027?No40519¢0¢$0−$77−$4.36
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?Yes3287.5¢0¢$0−$25$0
LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 9?Yes25224.8¢0¢$0−$62−$3.29
LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?Yes22822.1¢0¢$0−$50−$2.38
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes22249¢0¢$0−$109−$2.22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?No193¢0¢$0−$0.58$0
Patriots vs. SeahawksPatriots1544¢0¢$0−$6.60$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?84.4¢71.0k$59.9k77%47Whale
BUY YesWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?28.2¢5,219$1,47377%47
BUY NoWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?30.7¢552$16977%47
BUY YesWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?30.7¢1,673$51477%47
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?16¢2,007$32177%47
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84¢2,442$2,05277%47
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.3¢5,507$4,64377%47
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?1¢694$6.9477%47
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?60¢2,438$1,46377%47
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?73¢77$5677%47
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?49¢222$10977%47
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50¢2,312$1,15677%47
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50¢946$47377%47
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?46.5¢940$43777%47
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?45¢1,579$71077%47
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43.8¢6,000$2,62877%47
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?40¢2,236$89477%47
BUY NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?39¢3,472$1,35477%47
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?35.9¢2,258$81277%47
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?63¢10.2k$6,41477%47