sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

PABLOESCOBAR25

0x6b4…2e46
WR 60+PoliticsSportWeatherOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$809vol $135k
PnL 30d−$165gains $1,605 · losses $1,522
PnL 7d+$50win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate65.0%adj 64.4% · 30d 58.8%
Open value$2,191cash n/a
Positions67 / 666open / all-time
Max drawdown−66.5%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$16below peak −$156Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 65.0% · shrunk toward 50%61
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity34

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · Alex de Minaurclosed+$91Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-01? · Yesclosed+$89Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) · Anyone's Legendclosed+$89Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B · Legacyclosed+$88Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 · Underclosed+$82

Worst markets

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? · Noclosed−$176Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) · LYONopen−$123Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 · Underopen−$120US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? · Noclosed−$111Como 1907 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 · Underopen−$103

Open positions · 67

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes18386¢89.5¢$164+$6.42$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat?Yes15582¢86.5¢$134+$6.96$0
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?No14176.4¢78.1¢$110+$2.46$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?Yes14788.4¢71.5¢$105−$25$0
Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?No13676¢75.5¢$103−$0.71$0
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026No12083¢81.5¢$97−$1.79$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No11471¢84¢$96+$15$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes10884¢87.9¢$95+$4.27$0
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?No12171¢78.5¢$95+$9.05$0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 12?No12662¢67¢$84+$6.29$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No14656.1¢53.7¢$78−$3.55$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?Yes9873¢80¢$78+$6.85$0
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes11661.3¢66.5¢$77+$6.07$0
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes8879¢86.5¢$76+$6.63$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?No18350.5¢38.5¢$71−$22$0
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?No8663¢73.5¢$63+$9.01$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?No9263¢67¢$61+$3.66$0
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?No9949¢57¢$57+$7.95$0
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?Yes9960¢57¢$56−$2.95$0
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No14874¢33.5¢$50−$60$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?Yes6261¢69.5¢$43+$5.31$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?No10640¢39.5¢$42−$0.53$0
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?No5675¢74.5¢$42−$0.28$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?Yes4962¢72.5¢$36+$5.16$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Yes8143.8¢40.1¢$32−$3.05$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?No3864¢76¢$29+$4.58$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?Yes4169.4¢70¢$29+$0.24$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?No4845.4¢55¢$26+$4.60$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No2979¢88.5¢$26+$2.79$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?No3563¢69.5¢$24+$2.29$0
LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion PlayoffsMaryville University6040¢40.5¢$24+$0.30$0
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?No2355¢71.5¢$16+$3.78$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?No2369¢66¢$15−$0.70$0
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?No2250¢66.5¢$15+$3.67$0
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Yes3047¢45.5¢$14−$0.45$0
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?No2851¢37.5¢$10−$3.75$0
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes1635¢40.5¢$6.47+$0.88$0
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes2332¢20.5¢$4.62−$2.59$0
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?No1054¢37.5¢$3.75−$1.65$0
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5)LYON21955¢0¢$0−$120−$2.71
Como 1907 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under19153¢0¢$0−$101−$2.37
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under16970¢0¢$0−$118−$1.78
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-09-10?No12660¢0¢$0−$76−$1.51
Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5Under10959¢0¢$0−$65−$1.32
Guangzhou: Naoya Honda vs Nikoloz BasilashviliNikoloz Basilashvili10769¢0¢$0−$74−$1.15
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Regular Seasonstruggletony8832¢0¢$0−$28$0
Ethereum Up or Down on October 5?Up8875¢0¢$0−$66$0
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Galions - Game 1 WinnerKT Rolster Challengers7248¢0¢$0−$35−$0.90
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Pyramid IV Esports - Game 1 WinnerArctic Pandas7060¢0¢$0−$42−$0.84
Will Stafford Rangers FC win on 2026-10-06?No6567¢0¢$0−$44$0
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 15?No6165¢0¢$0−$40−$0.69
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?No5851¢0¢$0−$30$0
Counter-Strike: OG vs PURE (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group AOG5667¢0¢$0−$38−$0.62
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs PRIVATE (+1.5)GamerLegion5540¢0¢$0−$22−$0.66
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?No5570¢0¢$0−$38−$0.57
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Falcons Force (BO1) - FOX Legacy Cup Group Aaimclub4754¢0¢$0−$25−$0.59
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsFURIA Esports3344¢0¢$0−$15−$0.41
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?No3274¢0¢$0−$24−$25
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 2?No2874.5¢0¢$0−$21−$25
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier PlayoffsB82552¢0¢$0−$13−$0.32
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28?No1447¢0¢$0−$6.80−$0.18
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 12?No1442¢0¢$0−$5.75−$1.02
Spread: FC Bayern München (-4.5)1. FC Union Berlin1367¢0¢$0−$8.51−$0.14
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 3?No1068¢0¢$0−$6.80$0
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 7?No863¢0¢$0−$4.91−$18
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 16?No445¢0¢$0−$1.77−$2.38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 8?No340¢0¢$0−$1.37+$0.74

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?1.1¢16$0.1865%46
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs40¢60$2465%46
BUY NoWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 12?62¢126$7865%46
SELL YesWill EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of November 2026?78¢27$2165%46
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?65¢111$7265%46
BUY NoUS imports Russian diesel by October 31?50¢22$1165%46
SELL YesWill no listed leader be out before 2027?47¢21$9.8665%46
SELL NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?81.6¢107$8765%46
BUY NoWill Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?76¢136$10465%46
SELL YesWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?47¢86$4065%46
SELL NoWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?77¢169$13065%46
SELL NoWill Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?70¢116$8165%46
SELL YesWill EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?84¢59$5065%46
SELL NoWill Tally Gotliv be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?88¢133$11765%46
SELL NoWill Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?95¢50$4865%46
SELL NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?80.8¢121$9865%46
BUY NoWill "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?30¢10$3.1465%46
BUY NoWill "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?29¢6$1.6065%46
SELL YesWill the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?54.6¢42$2365%46
BUY NoWill Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?84¢50$4265%46