sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,102

Rafael88

0x720…37f6
PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$125vol $1.43M
PnL 30d+$6,541gains $3,396 · losses $2,354
PnL 7d+$3,941win rate 7d 25.0%
Win rate58.1%adj 57.3% · 30d 41.2%
Open value$14.7kcash n/a
Positions30 / 217open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,208below peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale30
Adjusted win rateraw 58.1% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesopen+$5,016US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yesclosed+$2,444US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$1,738US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,107Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · Yesclosed+$986

Worst markets

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? · Noclosed−$5,773Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$1,932Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$1,750Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Noclosed−$1,457Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? · Yesclosed−$1,317

Open positions · 30

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No10.2k75.3¢80.5¢$8,226+$532+$1,206
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No2,98465.2¢64¢$1,910−$35$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1,86987.4¢87.6¢$1,638+$3.77+$585
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes84443.8¢85.9¢$725+$355+$4,661
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No61890¢88.5¢$547−$9.27$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes4,53112.5¢10.5¢$476−$90−$435
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No41185.2¢84.5¢$347−$2.69+$17
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?No23088¢89.5¢$206+$3.45$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No14494¢94.5¢$136+$0.73+$419
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes66119¢13.5¢$89−$36−$82
Iran leadership change by December 31?No7685¢88.5¢$67+$2.67+$197
US recession by end of 2027?Yes18328.2¢33.5¢$61+$9.80$0
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No5088.4¢91.5¢$46+$1.58−$6.84
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No4883.4¢85.5¢$41+$1.02+$6.93
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes41312.4¢9.5¢$39−$12−$53
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No3287.7¢90.5¢$29+$0.89$0
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No2696.9¢97.2¢$25+$0.08+$0.17
US recession by end of 2026?No2293¢93.5¢$20+$0.11$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No1096.5¢98.2¢$9.82+$0.17$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No1096.2¢97.8¢$9.78+$0.15$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No795.2¢97.2¢$7.17+$0.14−$7.77
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No696.8¢98.3¢$6.27+$0.10−$3.26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes11411¢5.5¢$6.25−$6.25$0
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes24.8k6.8¢0¢$0−$1,693−$57
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes11.0k3.8¢0¢$0−$422−$12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No1,35981.2¢0¢$0−$1,103−$9.16
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?Yes51984¢0¢$0−$436−$2.09
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Yes22596¢0¢$0−$216−$0.26
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?Yes13628¢0¢$0−$38−$106
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No6080¢0¢$0−$48$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢117$9358%46
SELL YesRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?14¢661$9358%46
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?85.7¢174$14958%46
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?9¢413$3758%46
SELL NoPutin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?90¢32$2958%46
SELL NoWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?97.1¢26$2558%46
SELL NoUS recession by end of 2026?93¢22$2058%46
SELL NoHantavirus pandemic in 2026?98.1¢10$9.8158%46
SELL NoWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?97.6¢10$9.7658%46
SELL NoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97.1¢7$7.1758%46
SELL NoUkraine joins NATO before 2027?98.1¢6$6.2558%46
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?5¢114$5.6858%46
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?90¢618$55658%46
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.9¢400$34058%46
BUY NoWill Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?88¢230$20258%46
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.9¢500$42558%46
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?82¢421$34558%46
BUY YesWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?10¢1,400$14058%46
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.9¢581$49458%46
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?82¢363$29858%46