| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 1,500 | 85¢ | 82.5¢ | $1,238 | −$37 | +$546 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026? | No | 368 | 84¢ | 83.5¢ | $307 | −$1.84 | +$0.85 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 89¢ | 89.5¢ | $269 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31? | Yes | 300 | 86¢ | 88.5¢ | $266 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 300 | 87¢ | 87.5¢ | $263 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will John Healey be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | No | 300 | 87¢ | 86.5¢ | $260 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 87¢ | 86.5¢ | $259 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 300 | 86¢ | 86¢ | $258 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Geordin Hill-Lewis be the next mayor of Cape Town? | Yes | 288 | 92¢ | 88¢ | $253 | −$12 | −$3.37 | |
| Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? | No | 300 | 88¢ | 84¢ | $252 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms? | Yes | 300 | 87¢ | 79¢ | $237 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? | No | 313 | 82¢ | 71.5¢ | $224 | −$33 | −$17 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 250 | 86¢ | 83.5¢ | $209 | −$6.25 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 250 | 87¢ | 75¢ | $188 | −$30 | −$4.50 | |
| Will Manel Kape fight Alexandre Pantoja next? | No | 190 | 47¢ | 93.5¢ | $178 | +$88 | +$4.70 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by December 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 88.4¢ | $177 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026? | No | 273 | 83¢ | 64.5¢ | $176 | −$51 | +$2.26 | |
| Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 87.5¢ | $175 | +$7.00 | $0 | |
| Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 86.5¢ | $173 | +$13 | $0 | |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | No | 200 | 82¢ | 85.5¢ | $171 | +$7.00 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | No | 200 | 86¢ | 85.5¢ | $171 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 83.5¢ | $167 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 83.5¢ | $167 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 241 | 61¢ | 68.5¢ | $165 | +$18 | +$10 | |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 81.5¢ | $163 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on November 30, 2026? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 81.5¢ | $163 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? | No | 200 | 72¢ | 80.5¢ | $161 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 84¢ | 80.5¢ | $161 | −$7.00 | $0 | |
| Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 79¢ | 79.5¢ | $159 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? | No | 200 | 85¢ | 79¢ | $158 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? | Yes | 200 | 76¢ | 76.5¢ | $153 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election? | No | 200 | 85¢ | 76¢ | $152 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 236 | 87¢ | 62.5¢ | $148 | −$58 | −$9.34 | |
| Beezie FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 200 | 81¢ | 73.5¢ | $147 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Steve Martin win the next Devonport mayoral election? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 73¢ | $146 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? | No | 200 | 66¢ | 73¢ | $146 | +$14 | −$24 | |
| Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 200 | 82¢ | 72.5¢ | $145 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 78¢ | 72.5¢ | $145 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by June 30, 2027? | No | 160 | 78¢ | 90.5¢ | $145 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? | Yes | 200 | 85¢ | 71.5¢ | $143 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | Yes | 150 | 77.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $142 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 300 | 61¢ | 46.5¢ | $140 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 68¢ | $136 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 159 | 69¢ | 84.5¢ | $134 | +$25 | +$0.18 | |
| Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by December 31? | No | 150 | 90¢ | 89.5¢ | $134 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? | No | 200 | 70.1¢ | 66.5¢ | $133 | −$7.20 | $0 | |
| Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | No | 142 | 81¢ | 93.5¢ | $133 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026? | No | 150 | 86¢ | 87.5¢ | $131 | +$2.25 | $0 | |
| Will Zandile Hlophe-Mkhwanazi be the next mayor of eThekwini? | No | 139 | 64¢ | 91.7¢ | $128 | +$39 | +$3.46 | |
| Will Tomáš Rec be the next Mayor of Liberec? | No | 150 | 72¢ | 85¢ | $127 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East? | No | 200 | 64¢ | 63¢ | $126 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | No | 150 | 75¢ | 83.5¢ | $125 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? | Yes | 136 | 93¢ | 90.9¢ | $124 | −$2.86 | −$1.22 | |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in October? | Yes | 132 | 80¢ | 93¢ | $123 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in October? | Yes | 150 | 75¢ | 81.5¢ | $122 | +$9.75 | $0 | |
| Will Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election? | No | 128 | 66¢ | 95.5¢ | $122 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election? | No | 148 | 66¢ | 81.5¢ | $121 | +$23 | +$0.55 | |
| Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? | No | 128 | 85¢ | 93.5¢ | $120 | +$11 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 150 | 77¢ | 79.5¢ | $119 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September? | No | 150 | 70¢ | 79¢ | $118 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election? | No | 150 | 72¢ | 78¢ | $117 | +$9.00 | $0 | |
| Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? | Yes | 160 | 55¢ | 73¢ | $117 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 189 | 57.8¢ | 61.5¢ | $116 | +$6.96 | $0 | |
| Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 investment banking revenue be above $2.45B? | No | 150 | 74¢ | 76.5¢ | $115 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 129 | 61¢ | 88.5¢ | $114 | +$35 | +$6.10 | |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.2B? | Yes | 150 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $114 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 150 | 79¢ | 76¢ | $114 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 150 | 76¢ | 74.5¢ | $112 | −$2.25 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 74¢ | 74.5¢ | $112 | +$0.75 | −$4.50 | |
| Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election? | Yes | 150 | 78¢ | 73.5¢ | $110 | −$6.75 | $0 | |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 150 | 73¢ | 73.5¢ | $110 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Old Dominion win Vocal Group of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | No | 130 | 71¢ | 82.6¢ | $107 | +$15 | +$3.04 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 73¢ | 71.5¢ | $107 | −$2.25 | −$133 | |
| Will Ken Yee Chew win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | No | 150 | 61¢ | 71.5¢ | $107 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 102.00 in October? | Yes | 150 | 77¢ | 71.5¢ | $107 | −$8.25 | $0 | |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 in October? | Yes | 150 | 78¢ | 71.5¢ | $107 | −$9.75 | $0 | |
| Will BlackRock (BLK) Q3 quarterly total net inflows be above $175B? | No | 150 | 67¢ | 71¢ | $107 | +$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31? | No | 150 | 74¢ | 70.5¢ | $106 | −$5.25 | $0 | |
| Will Counter-Strike 2 Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award? | No | 150 | 71¢ | 69.5¢ | $104 | −$2.25 | +$4.00 | |
| Will Princess Faku be the next mayor of Buffalo City? | Yes | 150 | 72¢ | 69¢ | $104 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by December 31? | No | 150 | 75¢ | 68.5¢ | $103 | −$9.75 | $0 | |
| Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | No | 150 | 68¢ | 68.5¢ | $103 | +$0.75 | −$42 | |
| Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? | Yes | 150 | 60¢ | 68.5¢ | $103 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 in October? | Yes | 150 | 75¢ | 68¢ | $102 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026? | Yes | 121 | 72¢ | 84¢ | $102 | +$15 | +$4.93 | |
| Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? | No | 155 | 48¢ | 65.5¢ | $102 | +$27 | +$2.12 | |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | No | 150 | 73¢ | 67.5¢ | $101 | −$8.25 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election? | No | 150 | 64¢ | 67¢ | $101 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election? | Yes | 150 | 67¢ | 66¢ | $99 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | No | 150 | 63¢ | 65.5¢ | $98 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of November 2026? | No | 121 | 80¢ | 80.5¢ | $98 | +$0.61 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | No | 150 | 70¢ | 64.5¢ | $97 | −$8.25 | −$9.00 | |
| Jumper listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? | No | 150 | 73¢ | 64¢ | $96 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? | No | 150 | 74¢ | 64¢ | $96 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Noble FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 109 | 75¢ | 87.5¢ | $96 | +$14 | +$0.63 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 120 | 67¢ | 79¢ | $95 | +$14 | +$6.33 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 77¢ | 47.5¢ | $95 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? | No | 100 | 59¢ | 95¢ | $95 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31? | No | 150 | 61.4¢ | 63.2¢ | $95 | +$2.77 | $0 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? | Yes | 150 | 70¢ | 62.5¢ | $94 | −$11 | −$9.20 | |
