sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,878

Seldon26

0x803…7b74
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$25.2kvol $872k
PnL 30d−$135gains $536 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$4.69win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate71.1%adj 70.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$874cash n/a
Positions57 / 1,127open / all-time
Max drawdown−13.6%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 17d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$25.3kbelow peak −$3,938Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

72/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 71.1% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d41
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 57

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,85822.1¢6.8¢$125−$286$0
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?Yes11740¢83.5¢$97+$51+$8.26
Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027?No11131¢76.5¢$85+$50+$47
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No8230.6¢84¢$69+$44+$7.61
Will Twice release a song in 2026?Yes30133.7¢20.5¢$62−$40+$106
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No6714¢86¢$57+$48$0
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?No5939¢85.5¢$51+$28+$8.62
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?No7939.6¢52.5¢$41+$10+$32
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by December 31?No3834¢96.9¢$37+$24$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3925.4¢87.4¢$34+$24$0
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027?No8636¢39.5¢$34+$3.00+$9.62
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?No3829¢79.5¢$30+$19$0
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?No3749¢68¢$25+$7.12$0
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No1472¢85¢$12+$1.78$0
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?No25524¢4.4¢$11−$50$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2244.6¢48.9¢$11+$0.96$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4721.1¢22.2¢$10+$0.50$0
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?No1566.7¢67.6¢$10+$0.13$0
Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026?Yes6427.3¢15¢$9.56−$7.84$0
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?Yes4339¢20¢$8.54−$8.12$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2736¢30.5¢$8.24−$1.49$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8312¢9.2¢$7.56−$2.36$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes3825¢19.5¢$7.50−$2.12−$0.80
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Yes8711.4¢7.5¢$6.48−$3.43$0
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?Yes7132¢6¢$4.24−$18$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes2637¢14.5¢$3.81−$5.92$0
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Yes2540¢11¢$2.75−$7.25$0
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027?No325¢87.5¢$2.30+$1.64$0
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes1566¢14¢$2.09−$7.76$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes3230¢6.3¢$2.03−$7.64$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes2934¢6.5¢$1.86−$7.86$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1567¢12.5¢$1.84−$8.01$0
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Yes4330¢3.5¢$1.50−$11$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by December 31?Yes426.4¢29.1¢$1.11+$0.10$0
NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?Yes6,53220.2¢0¢$0−$1,318$0
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Yes69828.6¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No46533.9¢0¢$0−$157$0
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?No44035¢0¢$0−$154$0
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes37330.9¢0¢$0−$115$0
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No37031.2¢0¢$0−$115$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?No29230¢0¢$0−$87$0
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?No27244.1¢0¢$0−$120$0
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Yes23431¢0¢$0−$72$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?No17930.3¢0¢$0−$54+$5.89
Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election?Yes17742.4¢0¢$0−$75$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes7113¢0¢$0−$9.28$0
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No6035¢0¢$0−$21$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes5318¢0¢$0−$9.47$0
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?No5019¢0¢$0−$9.50−$0.38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Yes4521¢0¢$0−$9.54$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes3826.2¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?No3230¢0¢$0−$9.68$0
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?No3132¢0¢$0−$9.99$0
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?Yes2934¢0¢$0−$9.71−$0.32
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?Yes2638¢0¢$0−$9.74−$0.30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes2440¢0¢$0−$9.76$0
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Yes1663.9¢0¢$0−$9.98$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Nous Research launch a token by June 30, 2027?83.9¢237$19971%72Sharp
SELL YesWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?14.4¢36$5.1471%72Sharp
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?41¢19$7.8871%72Sharp
SELL YesWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?19¢40$7.6071%72Sharp
SELL YesIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?20¢30$6.0671%72Sharp
SELL YesIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?10¢40$4.0071%72Sharp
SELL YesNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?25¢33$8.3371%72Sharp
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?3¢63$1.9171%72Sharp
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?16¢26$4.1071%72Sharp
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?1.1¢29$0.3271%72Sharp
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?20¢19$3.7771%72Sharp
SELL NoWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?11¢42$4.5871%72Sharp
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?30¢14$4.2271%72Sharp
SELL NoUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?25¢20$4.9071%72Sharp
SELL NoUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?39¢19$7.2271%72Sharp
SELL NoUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?31¢16$5.0071%72Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?69¢14$9.8571%72Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?71¢14$9.8571%72Sharp
BUY YesUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?37¢26$9.7371%72Sharp
SELL NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?63¢13$8.4071%72Sharp