| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | Yes | 606 | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | $606 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,009 | 55.1¢ | 52.5¢ | $530 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,009 | 43.9¢ | 45.5¢ | $459 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31? | No | 291 | 92.4¢ | 96¢ | $280 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 265 | 77.1¢ | 75.9¢ | $201 | −$3.15 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 371 | 50.4¢ | 49.5¢ | $184 | −$3.30 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 371 | 39.8¢ | 45.5¢ | $169 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 270 | 55.2¢ | 56.5¢ | $153 | +$3.49 | $0 | |
| Will SNSD win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | No | 151 | 70¢ | 92.1¢ | $139 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 149 | 33.1¢ | 87¢ | $130 | +$80 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? | No | 130 | 96.8¢ | 98.2¢ | $128 | +$1.80 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 87.8¢ | 87.5¢ | $123 | −$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | No | 271 | 41.1¢ | 43.4¢ | $118 | +$6.26 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | Yes | 202 | 11¢ | 55¢ | $111 | +$89 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 135 | 61.1¢ | 80¢ | $108 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? | No | 202 | 87¢ | 52¢ | $105 | −$71 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12? | Yes | 100 | 73¢ | 99.9¢ | $100 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 147 | 45¢ | 52.5¢ | $77 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 147 | 51¢ | 51.5¢ | $76 | +$0.74 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 276 | 20.2¢ | 24.1¢ | $66 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | No | 73 | 78¢ | 77.5¢ | $57 | −$0.36 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 50 | 60¢ | 94.5¢ | $47 | +$17 | −$5.00 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 70 | 70.8¢ | 66.6¢ | $47 | −$2.93 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 48 | 87¢ | 89¢ | $43 | +$0.96 | −$18 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 132 | 35¢ | 31.5¢ | $42 | −$4.62 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 40 | 69.7¢ | 92.5¢ | $37 | +$9.10 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 60 | 58¢ | 61.5¢ | $37 | +$2.10 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 150 | 25.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $31 | −$7.25 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | No | 149 | 61.2¢ | 20.5¢ | $30 | −$61 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 30 | 86.1¢ | 94.8¢ | $28 | +$2.60 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 606 | 5.3¢ | 4.5¢ | $27 | −$5.05 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? | No | 60 | 42¢ | 42¢ | $25 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | No | 28 | 89¢ | 89¢ | $25 | $0 | $0 | |
| Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026? | No | 70 | 25.7¢ | 35.5¢ | $25 | +$6.85 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 40 | 51¢ | 58¢ | $23 | +$2.80 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 40 | 44¢ | 56.5¢ | $23 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | Yes | 73 | 22¢ | 27¢ | $20 | +$3.65 | $0 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 83¢ | 95.9¢ | $19 | +$2.58 | $0 | |
| Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | No | 23 | 56¢ | 77.5¢ | $18 | +$4.95 | $0 | |
| Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | No | 171 | 26¢ | 9.4¢ | $16 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31? | Yes | 292 | 5.1¢ | 4.8¢ | $14 | −$0.93 | $0 | |
| Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 10.3¢ | 9.7¢ | $14 | −$0.86 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 16 | 59¢ | 73¢ | $12 | +$2.23 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40 | 30¢ | 26.5¢ | $11 | −$1.40 | $0 | |
| Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | Yes | 10 | 80¢ | 96.5¢ | $9.65 | +$1.65 | −$18 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 75 | 10¢ | 11.5¢ | $8.63 | +$1.13 | +$8.32 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | Yes | 16 | 40.8¢ | 44.5¢ | $7.16 | +$0.60 | $0 | |
| Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | No | 23 | 45¢ | 29¢ | $6.67 | −$3.68 | $0 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 17¢ | 19¢ | $3.80 | +$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 31 | 10.2¢ | 11.5¢ | $3.55 | +$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 130 | 1.8¢ | 2¢ | $2.54 | +$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will SDA win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | Yes | 10 | 9¢ | 2.4¢ | $0.24 | −$0.66 | +$24 | |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? | Yes | 1,353 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$190 | $0 | |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 1,185 | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$345 | +$4.64 | |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | Yes | 983 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$68 | −$2.50 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 23? | Yes | 969 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 23? | Yes | 701 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election? | Yes | 637 | 71.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$456 | −$4.80 | |
| Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | Yes | 482 | 16.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$77 | −$6.84 | |
| Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | Yes | 457 | 58.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$266 | −$42 | |
| Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? | Yes | 437 | 16.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$74 | −$2.44 | |
| Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? | Yes | 385 | 54.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$210 | −$3.69 | |
| Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election? | Yes | 354 | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.16 | −$0.36 | |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | No | 343 | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | −$1.49 | |
| Will Benedita da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? | Yes | 313 | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | −$18 | |
| U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? | Yes | 303 | 45.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$138 | −$12 | |
| Will Rui Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election? | Yes | 291 | 13.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | +$16 | |
| Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election? | No | 254 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.82 | −$0.34 | |
| Will Reinaldo Azambuja win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election? | Yes | 230 | 22.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$52 | −$1.60 | |
| Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 23? | Yes | 230 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 23? | Yes | 225 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election? | Yes | 224 | 27.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62 | −$1.78 | |
| Will Styvenson Valentim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? | Yes | 216 | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | −$0.95 | |
| Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 210 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.60 | +$27 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | No | 191 | 85.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$164 | $0 | |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September? | Yes | 190 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.85 | −$0.11 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | No | 158 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.32 | $0 | |
| Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | No | 149 | 47.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$71 | +$19 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 24? | Yes | 143 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Helder win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election? | Yes | 141 | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.47 | |
| Will PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? | Yes | 139 | 23¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | +$3.71 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | No | 134 | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.11 | $0 | |
| Will Eduardo Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? | Yes | 130 | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | +$32 | |
| Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 23? | Yes | 126 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | Yes | 109 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | +$4.57 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 23? | Yes | 101 | 12.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 24? | Yes | 83 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Carol de Toni win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election? | Yes | 83 | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.44 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 23? | Yes | 59 | 33.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 22? | Yes | 51 | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 2? | Yes | 51 | 43.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | No | 40 | 64¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary? | No | 40 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | −$0.14 | |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 33 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 22? | Yes | 29 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? | No | 29 | 58¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | −$0.28 | |
| Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Yes | 27 | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in September? | No | 25 | 92.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | −$0.09 | |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? | Yes | 23 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election? | No | 17 | 40.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.06 | +$1.13 | |