sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,016

MrNoItAll

0x836…906e
SharpWhalePnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$37.4kvol $3.08M
PnL 30d+$7,711gains $12.2k · losses $19.8k
PnL 7d+$15win rate 7d 81.8%
Win rate89.9%adj 88.3% · 30d 80.0%
Open value$227kcash n/a
Positions123 / 609open / all-time
Max drawdown−43.8%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$37.1kbelow peak −$13.4kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

75/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 89.9% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable93
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity56

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No55.7k98.3¢98.6¢$54.9k+$120$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No21.9k95.2¢99.6¢$21.8k+$943$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No18.8k93.2¢94.5¢$17.7k+$243$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No13.1k97.3¢99.4¢$13.0k+$267$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No9,32194.1¢95.8¢$8,930+$154$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes12.6k93.5¢47.8¢$6,015−$5,757−$1,205
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?No5,94391.8¢98.5¢$5,854+$395$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes6,75580.8¢82.5¢$5,573+$118$0
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No5,31097.7¢98.6¢$5,236+$48$0
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?No5,20696.7¢99.1¢$5,159+$126$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No4,88186.7¢88.5¢$4,320+$89$0
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?No3,87986.1¢96.6¢$3,745+$407$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo3,73888¢91.5¢$3,420+$131$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No3,36994¢94.5¢$3,184+$17$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No4,57463.2¢58.5¢$2,676−$217$0
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No2,87989¢89.5¢$2,576+$14−$13
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No2,73890.6¢92¢$2,519+$38$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes3,20653.1¢77.5¢$2,484+$782$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,73888¢90.5¢$2,478+$68$0
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,36299.3¢99¢$2,338−$6.42$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No2,36995¢96.7¢$2,291+$40$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No2,21295.5¢97.4¢$2,153+$41$0
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?No2,20282.4¢96.2¢$2,118+$303$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No2,15678.6¢88.5¢$1,908+$214+$1,142
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes1,91797.3¢98.8¢$1,894+$29$0
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No1,89998.7¢99.5¢$1,889+$15$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?No2,42277.9¢75¢$1,816−$71$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?No1,82692.4¢84.9¢$1,550−$137$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes1,65292.3¢93.2¢$1,539+$14$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes1,53694.3¢93.5¢$1,436−$12$0
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?No1,73269.3¢80.5¢$1,394+$194$0
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?No1,34394.8¢98.7¢$1,325+$52$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No1,36991¢94.5¢$1,294+$48$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes1,33396.4¢94.6¢$1,260−$25$0
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No1,30492¢95.5¢$1,246+$46$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No1,36985¢84.5¢$1,157−$6.84$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?No1,31687.3¢87¢$1,145−$3.47$0
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer by October 31, 2026?No1,04798.2¢99.5¢$1,042+$13$0
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No1,03598.1¢99.7¢$1,032+$17$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?No1,05888¢93.5¢$989+$58$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes1,15285.3¢85.5¢$985+$2.76$0
Iran nuclear test before 2027?No1,02295.2¢96.2¢$983+$9.71$0
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?No87397.7¢98¢$856+$2.61$0
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No85399.3¢99.6¢$849+$2.85$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Yes83892.2¢99.8¢$836+$64+$29
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?No80488.1¢96.2¢$774+$65+$4.95
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?No75393.6¢97.8¢$736+$32$0
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?No72995.6¢95.4¢$696−$1.46$0
Graham Platner divorce by October 31?No71988.4¢95.3¢$685+$50$0
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?No67495.9¢98¢$660+$14$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?No72690.7¢90¢$654−$4.97$0
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?No59192.5¢95.8¢$566+$19$0
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No56999¢98.4¢$560−$3.41$0
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?No56981¢97.9¢$557+$96$0
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?No56996¢94.5¢$538−$8.53$0
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?No54196¢98¢$530+$11$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No56990¢89.5¢$509−$2.85$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?No51691.4¢96.6¢$498+$26$0
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?No48797¢96.7¢$471−$1.47$0
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No52189.4¢89.8¢$468+$2.21$0
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?No52084.3¢88¢$458+$19$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?No46397.9¢98.1¢$454+$0.75$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?No45293.2¢92.5¢$418−$3.13$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation?No45889.9¢89.5¢$410−$1.96$0
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?No43387.9¢94.5¢$409+$29$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?No44687.7¢89.5¢$399+$8.17$0
Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026?No44785.8¢85¢$380−$3.52$0
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by October 31, 2026?No40593.4¢93¢$377−$1.44$0
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?No38494.3¢96.4¢$370+$8.20$0
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?No36984.1¢91.3¢$337+$27$0
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?No55590¢60.5¢$336−$164$0
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes33395.1¢93.5¢$311−$5.35$0
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?No33388.1¢91.5¢$304+$11$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC?No33985.9¢89¢$301+$10$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?No23687.5¢92¢$217+$11$0
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei by October 31?No20998.8¢99.5¢$208+$1.43$0
Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026?No20792.9¢99.1¢$205+$13$0
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?No20096.6¢97.4¢$195+$1.40$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?No19194.6¢98¢$187+$6.38$0
Will Donald Trump visit Vermont in 2026?No20391.9¢92¢$186+$0.25$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?No19690.8¢93.9¢$184+$6.07$0
Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No16391.8¢98.8¢$161+$11$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?No16989¢87.5¢$148−$2.54$0
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?No15480.7¢95.7¢$148+$23$0
Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?No15090.7¢93.5¢$140+$4.15$0
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?No13094¢94¢$122$0$0
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?No12098¢98.1¢$118+$0.16$0
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?No12491.6¢94¢$117+$3.02$0
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No11486¢97.3¢$111+$13$0
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?No11596.6¢96.1¢$110−$0.57$0
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026?No11992¢92.5¢$110+$0.60$0
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No11782.2¢92.2¢$108+$12$0
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?No16269¢65¢$105−$6.49$0
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by October 31, 2026?No10695¢97.4¢$103+$2.49$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No11785.8¢87.5¢$103+$2.04$0
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?No10288.6¢97.2¢$99+$8.77$0
Will there be 0 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?No10191¢97.5¢$98+$6.54$0
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?No9986.3¢90.5¢$89+$4.20$0
Will Donald Trump visit Idaho in 2026?No13070.3¢67.5¢$88−$3.64$0
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026?No7797.7¢99.3¢$77+$1.23$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.6¢334$33390%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.4¢2,369$2,35590%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.3¢2,603$2,58590%75Sharp
BUY NoWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.1¢518$51490%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.8¢516$51090%75Sharp
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?17¢3,352$57090%75Sharp
BUY NoWill James Clapper be arrested before 2027?94¢60$5690%75Sharp
BUY NoWill John Brennan be arrested before 2027?79.9¢461$36990%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?90.4¢62$5690%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?94¢130$12290%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?93¢5$4.6590%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?90¢71$6490%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?89¢40$3690%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?90.7¢237$21590%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?78.7¢204$16190%75Sharp
BUY NoWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?89.5¢359$32190%75Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?97.3¢1,500$1,46090%75Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?97.2¢417$40590%75Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?94.3¢1,369$1,29290%75Sharp
BUY NoWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?93.7¢1,029$96490%75Sharp