sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,265

LJa7io23MCv954j

0x85a…9281
WhaleWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,143vol $1.11M
PnL 30d+$11.4kgains $26.4k · losses $2,040
PnL 7d−$1,939win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate90.1%adj 84.4% · 30d 94.7%
Open value$72.8kcash n/a
Positions57 / 181open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$23.9kbelow peak −$4,322Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

43/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 90.1% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable75
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d88
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 57

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No17.2k31.3¢88.5¢$15.3k+$9,852+$21
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No14.9k67.5¢90¢$13.4k+$3,351$0
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?No15.5k37.9¢86¢$13.3k+$7,446$0
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?No8,68380.7¢90.5¢$7,858+$850+$119
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?No3,82489.2¢100¢$3,824+$412$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No4,90066.2¢76.5¢$3,749+$503$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes4,69362.7¢76.5¢$3,590+$645$0
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No3,33975.4¢87¢$2,903+$385$0
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?No3,08162.9¢88.5¢$2,727+$790$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?No2,79172.6¢97.4¢$2,717+$692−$31
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No2,33579.7¢87.5¢$2,043+$181$0
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Yes6,66717.2¢9¢$600−$550$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?No30885.8¢93.6¢$289+$24$0
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Yes1,64318.5¢17.5¢$288−$17$0
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?No12041¢59.5¢$71+$22$0
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?No5143.7¢90¢$46+$24$0
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No5165.4¢74¢$38+$4.37$0
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Yes1821.7¢1.5¢$2.63−$0.38$0
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No32.1k58.2¢0¢$0−$18.7k$0
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?No20.4k31.4¢0¢$0−$6,426−$150
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?No10.4k13.3¢0¢$0−$1,374−$48
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No9,49488.5¢0¢$0−$8,400$0
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes7,55679.4¢0¢$0−$6,000$0
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No6,36169.4¢0¢$0−$4,417−$54
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?No5,39421.4¢0¢$0−$1,152−$33
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?No5,03267.2¢0¢$0−$3,381+$58
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?No5,02164.4¢0¢$0−$3,236$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Yes4,4660.9¢0¢$0−$40$0
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No3,91685.6¢0¢$0−$3,353$0
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?No3,76461.2¢0¢$0−$2,304$0
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?No3,48416.3¢0¢$0−$569−$1.09
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?No3,20938¢0¢$0−$1,221$0
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No2,00012.5¢0¢$0−$250$0
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?No1,91386.3¢0¢$0−$1,651$0
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?No1,56531.2¢0¢$0−$488$0
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?No1,53576.6¢0¢$0−$1,176$0
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?No1,48191¢0¢$0−$1,348$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?No1,47061.9¢0¢$0−$909$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?No1,23268.4¢0¢$0−$842−$129
US bank failure by July 31?No1,10982.9¢0¢$0−$919−$7.84
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?No1,05482¢0¢$0−$864+$0.01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No1,0000.4¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No97959¢0¢$0−$577$0
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?No87862.5¢0¢$0−$549$0
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No80016¢0¢$0−$128$0
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?No73241.4¢0¢$0−$303$0
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?No68485.3¢0¢$0−$584$0
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?No53474.5¢0¢$0−$397$0
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?No36951.2¢0¢$0−$189$0
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 16, 2026?No2990¢0¢$0$0$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes29023¢0¢$0−$67$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No26917.7¢0¢$0−$47$0
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?No2480¢0¢$0$0$0
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes1005¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes846¢0¢$0−$5.04$0
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?No5884¢0¢$0−$48$0
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?No402.4¢0¢$0−$0.96$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?18.5¢1,643$30590%43
BUY YesIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?18¢1,667$30090%43
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?80.2¢1,358$1,08990%43
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?79.2¢477$37890%43
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?90.1¢824$74290%43
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?89¢956$85190%43
BUY NoWill the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?66.4¢69$4690%43
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?75¢247$18590%43
BUY NoWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?66.1¢1,275$84390%43
BUY YesWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?62.7¢4,693$2,94590%43
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?41.4¢732$30390%43
BUY NoWill the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?70.7¢1,091$77190%43
BUY NoWill the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?76.2¢1,615$1,23090%43
BUY NoWill the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?78¢80$6290%43
BUY NoWill the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?64.8¢475$30890%43
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?77¢155$11990%43
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?93.5¢443$41490%43
SELL NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?41.5¢1,200$49890%43
BUY YesWill Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?1.3¢100$1.3090%43
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?50¢549$27490%43