PnL all-time+$489vol $212k
PnL 30d+$70gains $69 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$14win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate77.0%adj 71.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$3,937cash n/a
Positions12 / 86open / all-time
Max drawdown−19.8%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 5d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$783below peak −$21Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale38
Adjusted win rateraw 77.0% · shrunk toward 50%78
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable64
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d82
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity80
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noclosed+$248Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yesopen+$115Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yesclosed+$73Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Noclosed+$70Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$58
Worst markets
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed−$88Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$69Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yesclosed−$62US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? · Yesopen−$50Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? · Yesclosed−$50
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,107 | 90.1¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,013 | +$115 | $0 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 733 | 89.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $686 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 538 | 92.9¢ | 96.5¢ | $519 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31? | No | 316 | 95¢ | 95¢ | $300 | $0 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 330 | 91¢ | 90.5¢ | $298 | −$1.65 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 86 | 93¢ | 93¢ | $80 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 41 | 93.3¢ | 97.8¢ | $40 | +$1.83 | +$6.48 | |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,563 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.56 | +$5.79 | |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,100 | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | −$1.89 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Yes | 455 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 310 | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | −$0.59 | |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 30 | 91¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | −$0.07 |
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