sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,781

stupid22

0x8af…adb6
WhaleWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+WeatherPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$101kvol $25.5M
PnL 30d+$60.5kgains $59.2k · losses $37.9k
PnL 7d+$14.7kwin rate 7d 96.5%
Win rate96.9%adj 95.0% · 30d 94.5%
Open value$795kcash n/a
Positions52 / 963open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$87.1kbelow peak −$148kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 96.9% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable99
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noclosed+$22.8kWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$9,480Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$7,225Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Noclosed+$6,407Iran leadership change by December 31? · Noopen+$5,537

Worst markets

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Noclosed−$20.1kWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$8,608Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on September 25? · Yesopen−$4,674Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yesclosed−$4,537Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$4,308

Open positions · 52

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No224k93.7¢94.5¢$211k+$1,811+$807
Iran leadership change by December 31?No212k86.1¢88.5¢$188k+$5,144+$393
Iran leadership change by October 31?No101k97.9¢98.4¢$99.0k+$407+$200
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No30.3k98.3¢98.6¢$29.8k+$85+$33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No30.0k86¢84.5¢$25.3k−$450$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No20.7k98¢99.6¢$20.6k+$324+$586
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No20.6k89.3¢88.5¢$18.2k−$155+$382
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?No18.9k90.5¢93¢$17.6k+$478+$57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?No17.3k98.3¢99¢$17.1k+$107$0
Iran leadership change by November 30?No17.2k93.8¢93.5¢$16.1k−$56+$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?No16.5k94.9¢97¢$16.0k+$340$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No15.8k89.6¢89.5¢$14.1k−$21$0
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No15.2k93.7¢92¢$14.0k−$258+$10
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes16.0k81.6¢73.5¢$11.8k−$1,290$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No12.0k93.9¢96.5¢$11.6k+$314$0
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No12.2k90.3¢94.2¢$11.5k+$483$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes13.0k80.8¢82.5¢$10.7k+$215$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo10.4k88¢91.5¢$9,542+$365$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes22.0k32.9¢42.6¢$9,361+$2,116+$45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?No5,90198.2¢99.3¢$5,859+$64$0
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 8?No5,14599.9¢100¢$5,143+$4.32$0
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?No5,02199.9¢100¢$5,018+$2.51$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?No5,06594¢93¢$4,710−$49$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes10.1k29.1¢43.4¢$4,375+$1,439+$291
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes4,00095.2¢96¢$3,840+$32$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes10.1k38.5¢35.5¢$3,589−$300−$584
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 8?No2,62899.9¢100¢$2,627+$1.32$0
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes2,00081¢77.5¢$1,550−$70$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?No1,55893.3¢96.5¢$1,502+$48$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1,51369.3¢71.3¢$1,079+$30$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in October?No1,00099.1¢99.5¢$995+$3.50$0
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 8?Yes81599.9¢100¢$815+$0.41$0
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes75397.8¢98.5¢$742+$4.90$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes50098.9¢98.8¢$494−$0.50$0
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?No41894.4¢96¢$402+$6.69$0
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 8?No29499.9¢100¢$294+$0.15$0
Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?Yes30182¢79.5¢$240−$7.54$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes50044¢36¢$180−$40$0
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo14191.4¢96.6¢$136+$7.20+$5.82
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?No13581.4¢91.5¢$124+$14$0
Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?Yes12590.2¢96.9¢$121+$8.35$0
Will Hsu Shu-hua win the next Nantou County Magistrate election?Yes12395¢95.8¢$118+$0.92$0
Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?Yes6086.8¢88¢$53+$0.71$0
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 8?No3299.9¢100¢$32+$0.02$0
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on October 8?No599.9¢100¢$4.78$0$0
China coup attempt before 2027?No594.7¢96.3¢$4.70+$0.08$0
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on September 25?Yes4,66696¢0¢$0−$4,478−$196
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes1,10017.8¢0¢$0−$196$0
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,00040.2¢0¢$0−$402−$12
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?Yes89477¢0¢$0−$688−$3.90
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes10039¢0¢$0−$39$0
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Yes1001.2¢0¢$0−$1.20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?99.5¢2,263$2,25297%44
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?94¢117$11097%44
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 8?99.9¢89$8997%44
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 8?99.9¢158$15897%44
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?94¢1,541$1,44997%44
BUY NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?94¢2,197$2,06697%44
BUY NoWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on October 8?99.9¢5$4.7897%44
BUY YesWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?70.7¢668$47297%44
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?99.7¢1,170$1,16697%44
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢801$71397%44
BUY NoIsraeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?94¢50$4797%44
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 7?99.2¢35$3597%44
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 7?99.9¢7,982$7,97497%44
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 7?99.9¢185$18597%44
BUY NoIran leadership change by October 31?98.4¢288$28497%44
BUY NoIran leadership change by October 31?98.3¢276$27197%44
BUY NoIran leadership change by October 31?98.2¢873$85897%44
BUY NoIran leadership change by October 31?98.3¢1,754$1,72497%44
BUY NoWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.5¢3,000$2,98597%44
BUY NoIsraeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?94¢1,188$1,11697%44