sharpside
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ChasingPaper

0x8dc…116f
PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+CryptoPoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$14.1kvol $553k
PnL 30d+$1,644gains $2,948 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$480win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate64.5%adj 63.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$20.2kcash n/a
Positions48 / 487open / all-time
Max drawdown−20.9%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 6d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$17.4kbelow peak −$853Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 64.5% · shrunk toward 50%60
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable90
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d78
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity79

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 48

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No6,20745.2¢91.5¢$5,680+$2,877$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No4,19049.6¢36.5¢$1,530−$550$0
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes2,00018¢65.5¢$1,310+$950$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No1,32586.7¢97.8¢$1,295+$147+$116
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo2,94134¢38.5¢$1,132+$132$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No70079.6¢97¢$679+$122$0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes1,50047.9¢36.5¢$547−$170$0
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?No55094.3¢95.2¢$523+$5.07$0
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?No56585.2¢91.1¢$515+$34$0
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?No60086.2¢83.5¢$501−$16$0
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?No51977.7¢91.5¢$475+$72$0
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Yes2,44822.5¢19¢$465−$86−$94
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?No70160.4¢62¢$435+$11$0
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?No52380.3¢81.9¢$428+$8.22$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes1,50039.5¢28.5¢$428−$165$0
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?No34789¢97.5¢$339+$29$0
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No32787.5¢97.5¢$319+$33$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3,50017.5¢9¢$317−$294$0
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?No30051¢89.5¢$269+$116$0
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No30350.2¢88.5¢$268+$116$0
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes25051.3¢89.5¢$224+$95$0
Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch?No26992.9¢78.5¢$211−$39$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes2,99716.8¢6.5¢$195−$308$0
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?No20079.3¢96.8¢$194+$35$0
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?No20087.6¢96.7¢$193+$18$0
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No20074¢95.5¢$191+$43$0
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027?No20379.8¢92.5¢$188+$26$0
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No95068.1¢17.5¢$166−$480$0
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?No19478.5¢78.5¢$153−$0.08$0
Unit FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No14988.8¢82¢$122−$10$0
Will Milady floor price reach 6 ETH before 2027?No14188.6¢85¢$120−$5.07$0
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No11688.9¢100¢$116+$13$0
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes2,5003.7¢4.4¢$110+$18$0
Unit FDV above $1B one day after launch?No13186.6¢79¢$103−$9.95$0
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes20064.2¢44¢$88−$40$0
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?No10053.8¢86.5¢$87+$33$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No20041.5¢34.5¢$69−$14$0
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?No6866.8¢73¢$49+$4.23$0
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?No5082¢97.7¢$49+$7.85$0
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?No30061.7¢13.5¢$41−$144$0
Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch?No6642.6¢38.5¢$25−$2.71$0
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch?No3370¢76.5¢$25+$2.15$0
Yo FDV above $100M one day after launch?No2358¢70.5¢$17+$2.93$0
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Yes40246.4¢4¢$16−$171$0
Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch?No2522¢45.5¢$11+$5.92$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes4,11213.5¢0¢$0−$555−$9.87
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes1,34836.5¢0¢$0−$493−$12
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No65256¢0¢$0−$365−$129

Recent trades

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TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY No2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House34¢2,941$1,00065%69
SELL NoTim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?96.8¢436$42265%69
SELL YesWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?8.9¢7,000$62665%69
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?42¢1,190$50065%69
BUY YesFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?17¢706$12065%69
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?49¢1,000$49065%69
SELL YesWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?76¢689$52465%69
SELL NoWill Lighter reach $6 before 2027?62.2¢607$37765%69
SELL YesWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?88.5¢510$45165%69
BUY NoArc FDV above $5B one day after launch?78.5¢194$15365%69
BUY NoArc FDV above $3B one day after launch?61¢500$30565%69
BUY NoArc FDV above $3B one day after launch?59¢201$11965%69
BUY NoPacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?94.3¢550$51865%69
SELL NoWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?97.2¢260$25265%69
SELL YesWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?85.7¢663$56865%69
SELL YesWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?26¢2,178$56665%69
SELL YesWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?60¢124$7565%69
SELL YesWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?22.8¢1,900$43365%69
BUY YesFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?17¢588$10065%69
BUY YesWill the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?3.7¢2,500$9365%69