| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | Yes | 20.8k | 15.3¢ | 27.5¢ | $5,717 | +$2,541 | $0 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 3,819 | 81¢ | 84.1¢ | $3,212 | +$120 | −$347 | |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | No | 3,333 | 60¢ | 88.5¢ | $2,950 | +$950 | $0 | |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | No | 3,812 | 50¢ | 72¢ | $2,745 | +$839 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,265 | 31.2¢ | 51.2¢ | $2,699 | +$1,056 | $0 | |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? | No | 2,663 | 50¢ | 95.3¢ | $2,538 | +$1,206 | $0 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 2,364 | 83¢ | 94¢ | $2,222 | +$260 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,432 | 86.3¢ | 88.5¢ | $2,152 | +$54 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 45.0k | 2.8¢ | 4.6¢ | $2,048 | +$788 | +$3,088 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,088 | 71¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,911 | +$428 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,106 | 61¢ | 79.5¢ | $1,675 | +$390 | +$719 | |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | No | 1,732 | 17.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,619 | +$1,309 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,752 | 75¢ | 91¢ | $1,595 | +$280 | $0 | |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 12.5k | 16¢ | 12.5¢ | $1,563 | −$438 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 4,885 | 54.7¢ | 28.7¢ | $1,404 | −$1,270 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,340 | 35.5¢ | 100¢ | $1,340 | +$863 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 7,771 | 31.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,127 | −$1,300 | $0 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 983 | 73.5¢ | 98.4¢ | $967 | +$245 | −$29 | |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 1,000 | 3.2¢ | 93.5¢ | $935 | +$903 | $0 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 3,483 | 38¢ | 25¢ | $871 | −$453 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,173 | 54¢ | 74¢ | $868 | +$235 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9? | Yes | 1,028 | 49¢ | 82.5¢ | $848 | +$345 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 902 | 17¢ | 90.5¢ | $816 | +$663 | $0 | |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 679 | 44.2¢ | 96.6¢ | $656 | +$356 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 630 | 62.7¢ | 80.6¢ | $507 | +$112 | −$22 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 540 | 75¢ | 92.5¢ | $500 | +$95 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 2,137 | 26.6¢ | 19.5¢ | $417 | −$153 | $0 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 549 | 68¢ | 73.5¢ | $404 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,339 | 26¢ | 23.5¢ | $315 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 360 | 70¢ | 80.5¢ | $290 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | No | 408 | 28¢ | 64.5¢ | $263 | +$149 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 590 | 66¢ | 43.5¢ | $257 | −$133 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 675 | 33.6¢ | 37.5¢ | $253 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,387 | 24¢ | 15.5¢ | $215 | −$118 | $0 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | No | 292 | 60¢ | 69.5¢ | $203 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 976 | 32¢ | 18.5¢ | $181 | −$132 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 309 | 55¢ | 55.5¢ | $172 | +$1.55 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,750 | 20¢ | 4.2¢ | $156 | −$594 | $0 | |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,237 | 14¢ | 12.5¢ | $155 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | 334 | 36¢ | 45.5¢ | $152 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | No | 156 | 7¢ | 88¢ | $137 | +$126 | $0 | |
| Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election? | No | 368 | 50¢ | 36.5¢ | $134 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | Yes | 438 | 12¢ | 25.5¢ | $112 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | Yes | 671 | 11.1¢ | 16.1¢ | $108 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | Yes | 549 | 22¢ | 19.5¢ | $107 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 223 | 26¢ | 44.5¢ | $99 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 538 | 29¢ | 14.5¢ | $78 | −$78 | +$269 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | Yes | 314 | 16¢ | 22¢ | $69 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | Yes | 181 | 28¢ | 38¢ | $69 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 68 | 42¢ | 85.5¢ | $58 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 195 | 27¢ | 29.5¢ | $58 | +$4.88 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? | Yes | 345 | 24¢ | 15¢ | $52 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | No | 168 | 24¢ | 30¢ | $50 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? | No | 1,321 | 11.1¢ | 3.4¢ | $45 | −$102 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 91 | 10¢ | 41.7¢ | $38 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 134 | 18¢ | 25.5¢ | $34 | +$10 | +$198 | |
| Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 2,164 | 1¢ | 1.3¢ | $28 | +$6.49 | $0 | |
| Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | Yes | 27 | 6¢ | 89¢ | $24 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election? | No | 44 | 43¢ | 55.5¢ | $24 | +$5.46 | $0 | |
| Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | Yes | 655 | 0.7¢ | 3.5¢ | $23 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | Yes | 54 | 39¢ | 40.5¢ | $22 | +$0.81 | $0 | |
| Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election? | No | 419 | 11¢ | 5¢ | $21 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,817 | 75¢ | 1.2¢ | $21 | −$1,342 | $0 | |
| Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? | Yes | 319 | 11¢ | 5.5¢ | $17 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 14 | 72.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $12 | +$2.13 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 21 | 48¢ | 54.5¢ | $11 | +$1.35 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | No | 16 | 33.7¢ | 57.6¢ | $9.10 | +$3.77 | +$34 | |
| Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | No | 835 | 3¢ | 1¢ | $7.93 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 38 | 26¢ | 19.5¢ | $7.50 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 713 | 3.7¢ | 0.9¢ | $6.06 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 261 | 9¢ | 2.3¢ | $5.99 | −$17 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Yes | 259 | 6¢ | 1.3¢ | $3.37 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 5 | 27¢ | 52.5¢ | $2.63 | +$1.27 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3 | 8¢ | 90.5¢ | $2.31 | +$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 34 | 5¢ | 2.8¢ | $0.96 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 2 | 3¢ | 36.5¢ | $0.65 | +$0.60 | $0 | |
| Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | Yes | 687 | 5.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.34 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | No | 3,056 | 73.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,241 | $0 | |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | No | 2,807 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$618 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,627 | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | +$625 | |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,999 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$220 | $0 | |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | No | 1,697 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$68 | $0 | |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | Yes | 1,594 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | No | 826 | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$148 | $0 | |
| Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election? | Yes | 659 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | Yes | 201 | 47.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$95 | $0 | |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 167 | 33¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$55 | $0 | |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? | Yes | 116 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? | Yes | 50 | 36¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | +$1.50 | |