Traders/Rank #471

failstober

0x90e…b5bc@failstonerPM

WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+PoliticsSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$430kvol $39.9M

PnL 30d−$20.8kgains $12.1k · losses $0

PnL 7d+$5,214win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate40.4%adj 40.8% · 30d 100.0%

Open value$119kcash n/a

Positions171 / 935open / all-time

Max drawdown−43.4%of equity peak

Account age11molast trade 11d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$433kbelow peak −$73.6kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

53/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale80

Adjusted win rateraw 40.4% · shrunk toward 50%2

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable99

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d63

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity57

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$130k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen+$38.1k US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · Yesclosed+$20.3k Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$19.7k Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$19.2k

Worst markets

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yesclosed−$23.0k Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? · Noclosed−$22.2k Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million? · Noclosed−$19.7k Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? · Yesclosed−$19.4k US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$17.9k

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	383k	22.9¢	18¢	$68.8k	−$19.0k	+$57.1k	25mo
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	19.0k	39.6¢	48.6¢	$9,243	+$1,712	+$2,407	25mo
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	7,956	75.6¢	80.2¢	$6,377	+$364	−$357	25mo
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	26.9k	43.3¢	17.8¢	$4,800	−$6,847	+$4,106	25mo
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	241k	1.8¢	2¢	$4,691	+$460	+$172	25mo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	4,857	61.4¢	94.5¢	$4,590	+$1,607	$0	3mo
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	4,098	83.1¢	97.8¢	$4,005	+$601	−$1,044	3mo
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	3,333	15¢	73.5¢	$2,450	+$1,950	$0	3mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	44.8k	3.5¢	5.1¢	$2,262	+$677	+$78	25mo
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	2,222	45¢	92.5¢	$2,055	+$1,055	$0	3mo
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,039	53¢	64.5¢	$1,960	+$349	$0	25mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	12.5k	22.8¢	15.2¢	$1,889	−$949	+$774	25mo
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	8,983	4.5¢	7.5¢	$669	+$261	+$291	25mo
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	1,111	13¢	56.5¢	$628	+$483	$0	3mo
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	643	12¢	91.1¢	$586	+$509	$0	4mo
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	605	52.7¢	65.5¢	$396	+$77	+$62	25mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,656	0.7¢	13.2¢	$349	+$332	+$520	25mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	5.9¢	$198	+$198	$0	25mo
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	4.6¢	$171	+$146	$0	25mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,111	0¢	15.1¢	$167	+$167	$0	25mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,600	0.7¢	10.2¢	$163	+$153	$0	25mo
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	2,668	17¢	4.5¢	$119	−$335	+$75	3mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,596	0.6¢	7.4¢	$117	+$107	+$2.10	25mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	950	17.4¢	12¢	$114	−$51	$0	3mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	3.1¢	$113	+$88	$0	25mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	2.8¢	$102	+$77	$0	25mo
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	2.7¢	$88	+$88	$0	25mo
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	2.3¢	$85	+$61	$0	25mo
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	2.6¢	$85	+$85	$0	25mo
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	2.2¢	$82	+$57	$0	25mo
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	2.4¢	$78	+$78	$0	25mo
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	3,333	12¢	2.3¢	$77	−$323	$0	3mo
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	2.1¢	$68	+$68	$0	25mo
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	1.8¢	$65	+$40	$0	25mo
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	1.8¢	$65	+$40	$0	25mo
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	1.7¢	$61	+$36	$0	25mo
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	1.8¢	$58	+$58	$0	25mo
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	1.4¢	$50	+$25	$0	25mo
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	1.4¢	$45	+$45	$0	25mo
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	47	81.2¢	92¢	$43	+$5.02	−$293	25mo
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	1.3¢	$42	+$42	$0	25mo
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	1¢	$35	+$10	$0	25mo
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	1.1¢	$35	+$35	$0	25mo
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.9¢	$33	+$8.64	$0	25mo
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	1¢	$33	+$33	$0	25mo
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,109	0¢	3¢	$33	+$33	$0	25mo
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.9¢	$32	+$6.78	$0	25mo
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.7¢	$24	−$0.64	$0	25mo
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.7¢	$23	+$23	$0	25mo
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.7¢	$22	+$22	$0	25mo
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.7¢	$22	+$22	$0	25mo
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$20	−$4.35	$0	25mo
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$20	−$4.35	$0	25mo
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,600	0.6¢	1.3¢	$20	+$9.77	+$18	25mo
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$19	−$6.21	$0	25mo
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$19	−$6.21	$0	25mo
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$17	−$8.06	$0	25mo
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.5¢	$17	−$8.06	$0	25mo
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.5¢	$15	+$15	$0	25mo
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,111	0¢	1.3¢	$14	+$14	$0	25mo
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	106	18¢	13¢	$14	−$5.30	$0	3mo
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.4¢	$13	−$12	$0	25mo
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.4¢	$12	+$12	$0	25mo
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.4¢	$12	+$12	$0	25mo
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.3¢	$8.33	+$8.33	$0	25mo
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.2¢	$5.57	−$19	$0	25mo
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.2¢	$5.57	−$19	$0	25mo
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.2¢	$5.57	−$19	$0	25mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.2¢	$5.57	−$19	$0	25mo
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.2¢	$5.57	−$19	$0	25mo
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.2¢	$5.00	+$5.00	$0	25mo
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,600	0.6¢	0.2¢	$3.90	−$13	+$9.91	25mo
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,331	0¢	0.1¢	$3.33	+$3.33	$0	25mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,111	0¢	0.3¢	$2.78	+$2.78	$0	25mo
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	2	99.3¢	99.9¢	$2.00	+$0.01	$0	25mo
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,711	0.7¢	0.1¢	$1.86	−$23	$0	25mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	6¢	6,429	$386	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	26¢	1,746	$454	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	41¢	4,435	$1,818	40%	53
11d ago	SELL Yes	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	51¢	3,400	$1,734	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Seahawks	Seahawks vs. Commanders	61¢	9,999	$6,099	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	33¢	11.1k	$3,667	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	35¢	2,937	$1,028	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	45¢	5,555	$2,500	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Chargers	Chargers vs. Bills	25¢	5,555	$1,389	40%	53
11d ago	BUY Buccaneers	Vikings vs. Buccaneers	49¢	5,555	$2,722	40%	53
41d ago	BUY No	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	86.2¢	871	$751	40%	53
1mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	21.3¢	5,630	$1,198	40%	53
1mo ago	BUY Yes	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	0.5¢	4,444	$22	40%	53
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	46¢	11.5k	$5,298	40%	53
3mo ago	SELL Yes	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10¢	119k	$11.9k	40%	53	Whale
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3.3¢	35.9k	$1,182	40%	53
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3¢	34.8k	$1,044	40%	53
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6.1¢	1,508	$92	40%	53
3mo ago	BUY No	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	62.9¢	1,801	$1,133	40%	53
3mo ago	BUY No	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	81¢	4,444	$3,600	40%	53