sharpside
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Traders/Rank #17,831

2sam

0x936…6eaf
PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$642vol $89.3k
PnL 30d−$638gains $84 · losses $613
PnL 7d−$37win rate 7d 35.1%
Win rate39.3%adj 40.2% · 30d 40.0%
Open value$306cash n/a
Positions13 / 276open / all-time
Max drawdown−67.3%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 16h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$669below peak −$673Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

34/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 39.3% · shrunk toward 50%1
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable81
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity33

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$12Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$9.00Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026? · Yesclosed+$8.00Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yesclosed+$6.12Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yesclosed+$3.00

Worst markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$106Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$66Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · Yesopen−$61Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? · Noclosed−$40Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noclosed−$27

Open positions · 13

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?No12595.5¢94.7¢$118−$1.00−$3.36
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes10071.2¢70.4¢$70−$0.85+$3.00
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Yes36431¢14.5¢$53−$60−$1.16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes12764¢19.5¢$25−$56−$49
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No2086¢71.5¢$14−$2.90$0
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?No2447¢42.5¢$10−$1.08−$0.06
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?No2055¢42.5¢$8.50−$2.50−$3.00
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?No5019¢13.5¢$6.75−$2.75$0
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?No1019¢2.8¢$0.28−$1.62−$1.65
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?Yes1006¢0¢$0−$6.00$0
Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 9?No5010¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?Yes1845¢0¢$0−$8.00$0
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11?No1019¢0¢$0−$1.90−$1.42

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?88.4¢300$26539%34
SELL NoWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?26.7¢100$2739%34
SELL YesWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?7¢2$0.1239%34
SELL YesWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?7¢18$1.2839%34
SELL NoWill the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?52¢0$0.0139%34
SELL YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?28.3¢46$1339%34
SELL NoWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?94.8¢375$35639%34
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11?5¢10$0.5039%34
SELL NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?10¢100$1039%34
SELL NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?5¢50$2.5039%34
SELL NoWill MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?25¢20$5.0039%34
SELL NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?6¢50$3.0039%34
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?4.7¢9$0.4439%34
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?5.1¢109$5.5739%34
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?5¢91$4.5439%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?95.3¢200$19139%34
SELL YesWill MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?4¢20$0.8039%34
SELL NoWill Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?40.9¢40$1639%34
SELL NoWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?65¢10$6.5039%34
SELL NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?98.3¢76$7539%34