sharpside
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Traders/Rank #582

LlamaLoco0000

0x93f…3e4a@LlamaLoco0000
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$352kvol $29.4M
PnL 30d−$48.0kgains $6,311 · losses $15.8k
PnL 7d−$20.5kwin rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate45.4%adj 45.7% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$966kcash n/a
Positions132 / 428open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.4ylast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12.9kbelow peak −$381kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale79
Adjusted win rateraw 45.4% · shrunk toward 50%14
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d88
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No476k90.3¢87.3¢$415k−$14.5k$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No368k62¢58.7¢$216k−$12.0k$0
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes303k31.5¢27¢$81.8k−$13.7k$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes213k22.2¢22.5¢$47.9k+$726$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes200k21.3¢15.5¢$31.0k−$11.6k−$12.8k
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes229k10.8¢12.5¢$28.7k+$3,825+$2.80
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes477k21¢5.5¢$26.3k−$73.8k$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes301k39.4¢8.2¢$24.7k−$93.8k−$3,709
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes55.8k30.5¢39.1¢$21.8k+$4,768$0
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes373k11¢4.5¢$16.8k−$24.4k$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?Yes285k24.8¢5.5¢$15.7k−$55.0k$0
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes12.2k62¢70.5¢$8,627+$1,040$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes123k16.8¢4.1¢$4,972−$15.7k$0
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes110k6.7¢4.5¢$4,914−$2,492$0
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Yes124k7.3¢3.6¢$4,408−$4,669$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes70.9k13.8¢6¢$4,256−$5,520$0
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Yes8,49350¢26.5¢$2,251−$1,996$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes62.2k26.6¢3.5¢$2,176−$14.4k−$16.8k
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes25.5k35.9¢7.5¢$1,913−$7,243−$973
NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes28.4k14¢5.6¢$1,577−$2,401$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes8,63537.7¢12.5¢$1,079−$2,176+$2,000
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Yes84974.7¢97.2¢$824+$191$0
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes16.9k20.6¢4.2¢$709−$2,763$0
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Yes11.2k24.9¢3.8¢$420−$2,371$0
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?Yes8,9568.4¢4.5¢$403−$349$0
X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes2,46521.2¢14.5¢$357−$166$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes3,48719.4¢7.5¢$262−$416$0
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes52.6k3.3¢0.5¢$237−$1,493$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,5407.9¢13.2¢$203+$81$0
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes2,72516¢6¢$164−$273$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes6,6107¢2.3¢$152−$311$0
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Yes41913¢22¢$92+$38$0
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Yes96015¢5.5¢$53−$91$0
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?Yes59024.8¢5.1¢$30−$116$0
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?Yes6908.9¢3.3¢$22−$39$0
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?Yes808.3¢10.5¢$8.40+$1.76$0
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?Yes639¢3.4¢$2.13−$3.52$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes435k7.7¢0¢$0−$33.6k−$380
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes400k2.6¢0¢$0−$10.6k+$1,539
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes334k7.7¢0¢$0−$25.7k−$654
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes306k2.2¢0¢$0−$6,607−$194
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes286k12.9¢0¢$0−$36.8k−$283
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes266k13.5¢0¢$0−$36.0k+$4.90
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Yes182k4.4¢0¢$0−$8,048−$298
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes129k7.2¢0¢$0−$9,390$0
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Yes126k7.7¢0¢$0−$9,691$0
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?Yes126k8.4¢0¢$0−$10.6k−$2.53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No111k47.2¢0¢$0−$52.4k$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Yes105k21.3¢0¢$0−$22.3k−$1,197
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?Yes80.1k2.2¢0¢$0−$1,762$0
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Yes68.4k7.1¢0¢$0−$4,877$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Yes66.3k7.6¢0¢$0−$5,014−$321
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?Yes60.9k7.6¢0¢$0−$4,650−$299
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes50.0k24¢0¢$0−$12.0k−$162
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?Yes50.0k2.1¢0¢$0−$1,050−$0.49
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes50.0k11.2¢0¢$0−$5,595+$551
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes50.0k2.2¢0¢$0−$1,100−$32
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes48.7k3.4¢0¢$0−$1,677$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Yes45.6k17.5¢0¢$0−$8,015−$263
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?Yes45.2k4.2¢0¢$0−$1,915−$128
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Yes43.8k14.4¢0¢$0−$6,293−$360
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes42.3k14¢0¢$0−$5,924+$7,215
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Yes32.5k15.9¢0¢$0−$5,170$0
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?Yes28.2k50.6¢0¢$0−$14.2k−$31
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Yes26.9k4.6¢0¢$0−$1,233$0
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?Yes26.6k4.1¢0¢$0−$1,087$0
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes25.6k23.1¢0¢$0−$5,911+$60
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsYes23.1k10¢0¢$0−$2,312−$0.90
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?No17.3k49.8¢0¢$0−$8,632−$12
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?Yes15.2k5.1¢0¢$0−$775$0
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Yes12.9k22.8¢0¢$0−$2,947$0
Trump out as President by April 30?Yes12.1k1.5¢0¢$0−$176$0
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?Yes11.5k6¢0¢$0−$694$0
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Yes11.1k18¢0¢$0−$1,998$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Yes10.3k32.9¢0¢$0−$3,399+$820
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?Yes10,0003¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?No10,00047¢0¢$0−$4,703$0
Trump out as President by June 30?Yes8,9166.1¢0¢$0−$542$0
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes8,7083.3¢0¢$0−$284−$2.54
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Spain8,0097.4¢0¢$0−$591−$27
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Yes7,88645.1¢0¢$0−$3,559$0
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes7,84511.1¢0¢$0−$871$0
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Yes7,51517.7¢0¢$0−$1,331$0
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsYes7,5006.3¢0¢$0−$475$0
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes7,50021.3¢0¢$0−$1,596$0
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes7,0713¢0¢$0−$212−$234
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes6,7726¢0¢$0−$406$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes6,00026¢0¢$0−$1,560$0
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes5,25531.2¢0¢$0−$1,642−$14
Will Han Feng Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?Yes5,19524.5¢0¢$0−$1,273−$48
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No5,04739¢0¢$0−$1,968−$23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No5,00015¢0¢$0−$750$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No5,00027.6¢0¢$0−$1,381$0
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Spain5,00020.2¢0¢$0−$1,012−$40
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No5,00027¢0¢$0−$1,350$0
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?Yes4,6755¢0¢$0−$234−$0.38
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?Yes4,00024¢0¢$0−$960−$22
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?No3,99819.8¢0¢$0−$790$0
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes3,77724.9¢0¢$0−$939−$0.65
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes3,75028.5¢0¢$0−$1,069+$322

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?55.5¢122k$67.7k45%46Whale
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?88.5¢1,236$1,09445%46
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?89.5¢44.6k$40.0k45%46Whale
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?89¢99.8k$88.9k45%46Whale
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?88.4¢12.2k$10.8k45%46Whale
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?88.6¢4,579$4,05745%46
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?87.8¢1,666$1,46345%46
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?87.7¢3,496$3,06645%46
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?87.6¢50$4445%46
BUY YesWill the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?9¢20$1.8045%46
BUY YesWill the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?8¢54$4.3345%46
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?91.9¢2,659$2,44245%46
BUY NoWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?62.1¢25.2k$15.7k45%46Whale
SELL YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?94.1¢3,725$3,50545%46
SELL YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?96¢11.7k$11.2k45%46Whale
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?2.8¢28.1k$78745%46
BUY YesWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?8¢22.8k$1,82745%46
BUY YesWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?8¢40.3k$3,22745%46
BUY NoWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?65.6¢21.0k$13.8k45%46Whale
BUY YesNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?23¢200$4645%46