Traders/Rank #3,873

xenonliu

0x94b…6184@LiuXenonliu

WR 60+PoliticsOtherSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time−$7,114vol $1.75M

PnL 30d+$236gains $460 · losses $60

PnL 7d+$589win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate65.8%adj 64.8% · 30d 60.0%

Open value$60.6kcash n/a

Positions42 / 378open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age10molast trade 7h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$4,886below peak −$5,866Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

39/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0

Adjusted win rateraw 65.8% · shrunk toward 50%62

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Noopen+$1,372 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Noopen+$1,306 Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$440 S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? · Downclosed+$435 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$394

Worst markets

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? · Downclosed−$8,465 US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Noclosed−$787 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · Noopen−$441 Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? · Noclosed−$335 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$301

Open positions · 42

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	44.5k	89.6¢	92.5¢	$41.1k	+$1,306	$0	9mo
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	16.8k	95.1¢	97.7¢	$16.4k	+$422	+$950	3mo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	2,091	84.2¢	89¢	$1,861	+$101	$0	15mo
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	999	77.9¢	92.5¢	$924	+$146	−$24	4mo
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	100	75¢	95¢	$95	+$20	$0	3mo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	100	82¢	83.5¢	$84	+$1.50	−$2.00	3mo
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	50	21¢	78¢	$39	+$29	$0	3mo
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	30	42¢	81.5¢	$24	+$12	$0	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	2,250	0.7¢	0¢	$0	−$16	$0	ended
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1,500	5.2¢	0¢	$0	−$77	−$1.48	ended
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1,500	1.9¢	0¢	$0	−$29	−$0.31	ended
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1,500	3.5¢	0¢	$0	−$53	−$0.51	ended
Will Trump Leave China on May 14?	Yes	1,000	0.3¢	0¢	$0	−$2.60	$0	ended
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	1,000	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$2.00	$0	ended
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	1,000	44.1¢	0¢	$0	−$441	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	512	0.4¢	0¢	$0	−$2.08	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	510	0.4¢	0¢	$0	−$1.90	−$0.60	ended
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	500	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	230	1.6¢	0¢	$0	−$3.70	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	227	1.2¢	0¢	$0	−$2.82	$0	ended
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?	Yes	150	0.7¢	0¢	$0	−$1.05	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	130	2.2¢	0¢	$0	−$2.90	$0	ended
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	125	40¢	0¢	$0	−$50	−$2.50	ended
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?	Yes	100	1¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	$0	ended
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?	Yes	70	1.5¢	0¢	$0	−$1.05	$0	ended
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	46	2.2¢	0¢	$0	−$1.01	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	40	2.6¢	0¢	$0	−$1.04	$0	ended
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	30	10.2¢	0¢	$0	−$3.05	$0	ended
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	25	4.5¢	0¢	$0	−$1.13	$0	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	20	3.3¢	0¢	$0	−$0.66	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Yes	20	4.3¢	0¢	$0	−$0.86	$0	ended
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?	Yes	20	45.5¢	0¢	$0	−$9.10	$0	ended
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	20	5¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	−$0.03	ended
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	17	6¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	−$0.03	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	15	9¢	0¢	$0	−$1.35	$0	ended
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	13	8¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	−$0.03	ended
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	11	9.7¢	0¢	$0	−$1.07	$0	ended
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	10	10.5¢	0¢	$0	−$1.05	$0	ended
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	10	10¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	$0	ended
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	9	11¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	−$0.03	ended
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	9	12¢	0¢	$0	−$1.08	−$0.03	ended
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	8	12¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	−$0.03	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
7h ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	93¢	2,000	$1,860	66%	39
5d ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	92¢	3,688	$3,393	66%	39
9d ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	96.7¢	103	$100	66%	39
11d ago	SELL Yes	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?	21¢	20	$4.20	66%	39
18d ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	96¢	563	$540	66%	39
18d ago	SELL No	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	99.5¢	1,025	$1,020	66%	39
18d ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	95.9¢	2,000	$1,918	66%	39
21d ago	SELL No	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	5¢	101	$5.05	66%	39
21d ago	SELL No	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	99.6¢	949	$945	66%	39
29d ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	96.2¢	2,300	$2,213	66%	39
1mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	55¢	90	$49	66%	39
2mo ago	BUY Yes	Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	99.7¢	5,000	$4,985	66%	39
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?	92¢	530	$488	66%	39
2mo ago	BUY Yes	Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?	94.3¢	530	$500	66%	39
2mo ago	SELL No	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	95.9¢	1,025	$983	66%	39
2mo ago	SELL No	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	95.9¢	2,050	$1,966	66%	39
2mo ago	SELL Yes	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	72.2¢	600	$433	66%	39
2mo ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	90.7¢	2,204	$2,000	66%	39
2mo ago	SELL No	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	98.5¢	2,349	$2,314	66%	39
2mo ago	BUY No	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	84.5¢	591	$500	66%	39