sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,434

The-Joker

0x9ae…2729@Joker_Poly
SharpPnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+CulturePoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$136kvol $8.10M
PnL 30d−$49.5kgains $84.5k · losses $106k
PnL 7d+$13.5kwin rate 7d 68.0%
Win rate63.5%adj 63.0% · 30d 61.9%
Open value$91.2kcash n/a
Positions50 / 2,422open / all-time
Max drawdown−30.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 4m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$164kbelow peak −$51.0kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

71/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 63.5% · shrunk toward 50%58
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity70

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 50

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes123k14¢13.5¢$16.6k−$616$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No11.3k89.8¢95.2¢$10.8k+$612$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes13.8k65¢69.4¢$9,561+$602$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes13.5k64¢63.5¢$8,581−$68$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes7,23490.4¢92.6¢$6,699+$157$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No7,58373¢73.5¢$5,574+$38$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes5,60979.8¢89.5¢$5,020+$543$0
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No4,00078¢83.8¢$3,350+$230$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes5,00070¢57.5¢$2,875−$625$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes4,60430.1¢57.8¢$2,659+$1,272$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No3,03660.3¢73.5¢$2,231+$400−$24
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Yes5,35538.1¢35¢$1,874−$167$0
US recession by end of 2026?No2,00182¢93.5¢$1,871+$230$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes5,84048.2¢25.5¢$1,489−$1,327−$135
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No5,48419.3¢22¢$1,206+$148$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes1,85767.9¢62.5¢$1,161−$100$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Yes1,57458.4¢59¢$929+$9.26+$240
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No1,57866.4¢51.5¢$813−$234$0
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Yes1,09973.5¢73.5¢$808−$0.26$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes1,00672¢79.5¢$800+$76$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1,10760.4¢71.3¢$789+$120$0
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No93077.9¢83.5¢$777+$52$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?No85469.6¢85.8¢$732+$138$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No61892.7¢99.5¢$615+$42$0
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes79741¢53¢$422+$96$0
Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)Buccaneers78351¢51.5¢$403+$3.92$0
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?No59769.9¢59.5¢$355−$62$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?No30683¢99.7¢$305+$51$0
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No48267.2¢61.5¢$296−$28$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes35452.6¢81.5¢$288+$102−$29
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No30375¢86.9¢$263+$36$0
Will Trump nationalize elections?No27262.4¢90¢$245+$75$0
Will "Primetime" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?Yes19066.6¢99.5¢$189+$62$0
Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?Yes26455¢67.5¢$178+$33$0
Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?No18981.2¢73.5¢$139−$15$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?No68764.7¢17.5¢$120−$324−$113
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?No12080¢96.5¢$116+$20$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 170m and 180m by October 31?No11586.6¢100¢$115+$15$0
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?No6,41125.9¢0¢$0−$1,658$0
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions PlayoffsPaper Rex6,40226.3¢0¢$0−$1,681−$42
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions PlayoffsNongshim RedForce5,00021¢0¢$0−$1,050−$41
Falcons vs. SaintsSaints5,00034¢0¢$0−$1,700$0
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians3,03039¢0¢$0−$1,182−$36
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group DKarmine Corp3,00059¢0¢$0−$1,770−$36
Valorant: FUT Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Group AFUT Esports2,67032.4¢0¢$0−$865−$29
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?Yes1,80244.6¢0¢$0−$804−$2.53
Will Augusto Cury win between 1% and 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,29815.1¢0¢$0−$195−$6.64
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under63663.1¢0¢$0−$401−$7.40
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?No57353¢0¢$0−$304−$5.65
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?No38247.8¢0¢$0−$183$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox52¢6,000$3,12064%71Sharp
BUY UTSASpread: UTSA (-6.5)48¢10.0k$4,80064%71Sharp
BUY SabresStars vs. Sabres48¢6,000$2,88064%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?14¢123k$17.2k64%71WhaleSharp
BUY YesWill "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?55¢264$14564%71Sharp
BUY NoWill "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?84¢169$14264%71Sharp
BUY NoWill "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?58¢20$1264%71Sharp
BUY NoWill "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?69.9¢597$41764%71Sharp
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?80¢120$9664%71Sharp
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?66.7¢62$4164%71Sharp
BUY Nongshim RedForceValorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs21¢5,000$1,05064%71Sharp
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?69.8¢792$55364%71Sharp
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?88¢200$17664%71Sharp
BUY Paper RexValorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs25.9¢4,413$1,14464%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?73.5¢1,099$80864%71Sharp
BUY SaintsFalcons vs. Saints34¢2,570$87464%71Sharp
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?84.7¢2,654$2,24864%71Sharp
BUY Cleveland GuardiansSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)39¢1,010$39464%71Sharp
BUY Cleveland GuardiansSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)39¢1,010$39464%71Sharp
BUY Cleveland GuardiansSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)39¢1,010$39464%71Sharp