| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | No | 38.7k | 61.9¢ | 46.6¢ | $18.1k | −$5,938 | −$2,910 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,684 | 84.2¢ | 72.5¢ | $3,396 | −$546 | $0 | |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? | No | 1,020 | 75.8¢ | 95.8¢ | $977 | +$204 | $0 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 983 | 60.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $954 | +$356 | −$13 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,866 | 87.3¢ | 13.5¢ | $927 | −$5,071 | −$810 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 1,208 | 71¢ | 75.5¢ | $912 | +$54 | −$55 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 1,040 | 71.7¢ | 84.6¢ | $879 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | Yes | 850 | 65.7¢ | 75.3¢ | $639 | +$81 | −$25 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 937 | 42¢ | 65.7¢ | $615 | +$222 | +$4.30 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 750 | 41.7¢ | 76.5¢ | $573 | +$261 | $0 | |
| Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? | Yes | 500 | 95¢ | 97.4¢ | $487 | +$12 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? | No | 450 | 86.8¢ | 90¢ | $405 | +$14 | −$19 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 493 | 49.3¢ | 70.5¢ | $348 | +$104 | −$2.95 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 360 | 55.5¢ | 80.5¢ | $290 | +$90 | −$26 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before the midterms? | Yes | 263 | 99.6¢ | 99.9¢ | $263 | +$0.74 | $0 | |
| Will Mohamed Chaouki be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | No | 250 | 97.9¢ | 99.5¢ | $249 | +$3.95 | $0 | |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | Yes | 1,674 | 53.5¢ | 14.5¢ | $243 | −$652 | $0 | |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 250 | 94.8¢ | 89.9¢ | $225 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR? | No | 250 | 86.7¢ | 88.9¢ | $222 | +$5.33 | $0 | |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? | No | 196 | 90¢ | 98.7¢ | $194 | +$17 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 200 | 94.6¢ | 96.9¢ | $194 | +$4.50 | −$13 | |
| Will the cure (Olivia Rodrigo) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 500 | 20.3¢ | 37.8¢ | $189 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 250 | 79.5¢ | 72¢ | $180 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 180 | 87¢ | 98.3¢ | $177 | +$20 | −$37 | |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | Yes | 215 | 49.9¢ | 78.5¢ | $169 | +$62 | $0 | |
| Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? | No | 260 | 62¢ | 64.5¢ | $168 | +$6.58 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 180 | 78.5¢ | 86.7¢ | $156 | +$15 | −$15 | |
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | No | 217 | 57.2¢ | 69.5¢ | $151 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | No | 150 | 95.1¢ | 98.3¢ | $147 | +$4.78 | −$45 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | Yes | 198 | 54.8¢ | 70.5¢ | $140 | +$31 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | No | 150 | 94.5¢ | 93¢ | $140 | −$2.22 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 150 | 84.2¢ | 92¢ | $138 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? | No | 140 | 98.5¢ | 98.7¢ | $138 | +$0.21 | $0 | |
| Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? | No | 250 | 97.4¢ | 47.8¢ | $119 | −$124 | $0 | |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | Yes | 132 | 74.4¢ | 83¢ | $109 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 390 | 19.5¢ | 28¢ | $109 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 63.5¢ | 53¢ | $106 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 100 | 92¢ | 99.2¢ | $99 | +$7.15 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October? | No | 100 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $99 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? | No | 100 | 95.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $97 | +$1.15 | $0 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 74¢ | 96.1¢ | $96 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | Yes | 100 | 94.2¢ | 94.5¢ | $95 | +$0.28 | $0 | |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 3, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 25¢ | 94.1¢ | $94 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | No | 100 | 91¢ | 93.6¢ | $94 | +$2.55 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | No | 100 | 83¢ | 93.2¢ | $93 | +$10 | −$17 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 100 | 26.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $92 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 68.7¢ | 45.5¢ | $91 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 63¢ | 59¢ | $89 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 100 | 88¢ | 86.5¢ | $87 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| X banned in any European country by December 31? | No | 97 | 86.8¢ | 86¢ | $83 | −$0.82 | $0 | |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | No | 100 | 68.5¢ | 78.5¢ | $79 | +$10.00 | $0 | |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? | No | 100 | 59.5¢ | 78¢ | $78 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | No | 87 | 92¢ | 89.3¢ | $78 | −$2.33 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | Yes | 150 | 57¢ | 51¢ | $77 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%? | No | 78 | 77.2¢ | 95.5¢ | $75 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 105 | 47.2¢ | 71¢ | $75 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | No | 88 | 71.3¢ | 81.9¢ | $72 | +$9.29 | $0 | |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 47.8¢ | 67.4¢ | $67 | +$20 | +$0.48 | |
| Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? | No | 76 | 79¢ | 83¢ | $63 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? | Yes | 100 | 41¢ | 62.5¢ | $63 | +$22 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | No | 100 | 55.5¢ | 61.5¢ | $62 | +$6.03 | −$3.23 | |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 31.9¢ | 58.4¢ | $58 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? | No | 100 | 84.1¢ | 58¢ | $58 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57 | 72.5¢ | 95.1¢ | $54 | +$13 | −$120 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 56.9¢ | 35.5¢ | $53 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 39¢ | 26.5¢ | $53 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026? | No | 50 | 90¢ | 100¢ | $50 | +$4.97 | $0 | |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day? | No | 50 | 83.9¢ | 99.5¢ | $50 | +$7.78 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | No | 50 | 95¢ | 99.1¢ | $50 | +$2.02 | $0 | |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | No | 50 | 77¢ | 98.4¢ | $49 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? | No | 50 | 61.9¢ | 97.5¢ | $49 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 95¢ | 97.4¢ | $49 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 50 | 83.2¢ | 97¢ | $48 | +$6.88 | $0 | |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 50 | 93¢ | 96.9¢ | $48 | +$1.93 | $0 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 78¢ | 96.7¢ | $48 | +$9.32 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | No | 50 | 92.3¢ | 96.4¢ | $48 | +$2.05 | $0 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 50 | 83¢ | 96.1¢ | $48 | +$6.53 | $0 | |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | No | 50 | 91.4¢ | 95.6¢ | $48 | +$2.07 | $0 | |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | No | 50 | 95¢ | 95.5¢ | $48 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | No | 50 | 90¢ | 95.5¢ | $48 | +$2.75 | $0 | |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? | No | 50 | 65¢ | 94.7¢ | $47 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 50 | 91¢ | 94.7¢ | $47 | +$1.82 | $0 | |
| Will Kenneth Walker III have 724.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | Yes | 50 | 94¢ | 94.4¢ | $47 | +$0.20 | $0 | |
| Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | No | 50 | 95¢ | 94.3¢ | $47 | −$0.38 | $0 | |
| UK Recession in 2026? | No | 50 | 95¢ | 93.5¢ | $47 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Yes | 50 | 90¢ | 93.5¢ | $47 | +$1.75 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 50 | 86¢ | 93.5¢ | $47 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | No | 100 | 48¢ | 46.5¢ | $47 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? | No | 50 | 86.8¢ | 92.3¢ | $46 | +$2.73 | $0 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | No | 50 | 87¢ | 91.5¢ | $46 | +$2.23 | $0 | |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 88.5¢ | 91.5¢ | $46 | +$1.52 | $0 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 50 | 84¢ | 91¢ | $46 | +$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | 50 | 84¢ | 89.5¢ | $45 | +$2.75 | $0 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 50 | 86¢ | 89.5¢ | $45 | +$1.75 | $0 | |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 93¢ | 89¢ | $45 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? | Yes | 50 | 91¢ | 87.8¢ | $44 | −$1.63 | $0 | |
| Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? | No | 50 | 79¢ | 86.5¢ | $43 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 71¢ | 86.5¢ | $43 | +$7.75 | −$11 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting? | Yes | 50 | 73¢ | 86.5¢ | $43 | +$6.75 | $0 | |
| Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026? | No | 50 | 68.1¢ | 86.3¢ | $43 | +$9.12 | $0 | |