sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,506

studmuffin6969

0xa8a…325e
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$129kvol $18.6M
PnL 30d+$1,338gains $663 · losses $440
PnL 7d−$295win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate47.7%adj 47.8% · 30d 83.3%
Open value$91.0kcash n/a
Positions83 / 1,971open / all-time
Max drawdown−16.9%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 5d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$136kbelow peak −$596Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

62/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 47.7% · shrunk toward 50%19
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d82
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity83

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 83

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes17.9k89.4¢96¢$17.1k+$1,171+$103
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No20.0k78.9¢83.5¢$16.7k+$914+$1,461
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No9,00090.8¢94.5¢$8,505+$334+$417
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No5,50085.9¢94.5¢$5,197+$474−$243
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No5,00092¢95.8¢$4,790+$190$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes6,00021.7¢71.3¢$4,275+$2,972+$231
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes4,50055.4¢62.5¢$2,813+$321−$6.74
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No2,72078.6¢91.5¢$2,489+$349$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No2,73085¢90.5¢$2,471+$150$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No3,00079.1¢82.1¢$2,461+$88$0
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No2,00091¢96.3¢$1,925+$105$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo2,00092¢91.5¢$1,830−$10−$56
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No2,00091¢86.5¢$1,730−$90$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes2,50035.2¢57.9¢$1,446+$566−$11
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No2,00072¢70.5¢$1,410−$30$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No1,5000¢93.5¢$1,403+$1,403$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1,50684.6¢87.5¢$1,317+$43+$116
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes1,09692¢95.5¢$1,047+$38$0
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?No1,00095.3¢100¢$999+$46$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00092¢87.5¢$875−$45$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No94975.4¢81.5¢$773+$58+$940
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No80083¢96¢$768+$104+$139
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No1,08069.3¢71¢$767+$18−$39
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes4,00022¢18.5¢$740−$140$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00072¢71.5¢$715−$5.00$0
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?No71190.6¢96.1¢$683+$39$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes2,34052.9¢25.5¢$597−$642+$30
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?No55790¢98.9¢$551+$49+$9.72
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No55093¢94.5¢$520+$8.25$0
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?No50089.3¢100¢$500+$53$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6,5007¢7.5¢$484+$32$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50045.3¢85.7¢$428+$202$0
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?No54984.6¢76.8¢$422−$43$0
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes20.0k1.5¢1.9¢$370+$70$0
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No27556.5¢97.3¢$267+$112$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No25077¢95¢$238+$45$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No21493.3¢98.2¢$211+$11−$3.53
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes24681¢82.5¢$203+$3.69$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,03443.7¢13.5¢$140−$313$0
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes20045¢62¢$124+$34$0
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes1,10051¢11¢$121−$440$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes50029¢21.5¢$108−$38$0
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3,0002.9¢3.1¢$92+$4.50$0
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes5009¢12.5¢$63+$18$0
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes73127.4¢8.3¢$61−$139−$0.81
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0003.6¢5.9¢$59+$23$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No6187¢97.5¢$59+$6.35$0
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?No4551.1¢81.5¢$37+$14$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes50027¢5.5¢$27−$107−$5.00
SBF released from custody in 2026?Yes1,75012.3¢1.6¢$27−$188$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No2588¢96.4¢$24+$2.07$0
US recession by end of 2026?No2575¢93.5¢$23+$4.54$0
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes5019¢7.4¢$3.70−$5.80$0
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes8,0000.6¢0¢$0−$45−$0.45
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes6,0003.5¢0¢$0−$213−$2.11
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes5,5005.3¢0¢$0−$291−$0.74
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes5,0003.3¢0¢$0−$165$0
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes4,5001.8¢0¢$0−$81−$2.39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes3,00012¢0¢$0−$360$0
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes3,0007¢0¢$0−$210$0
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2,5007.6¢0¢$0−$191−$3.08
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No2,0000.3¢0¢$0−$6.00−$2,227
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?Yes2,0005.2¢0¢$0−$104−$2.96
Fed rate hike in 2026?No2,00036¢0¢$0−$720$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?Yes1,8457.6¢0¢$0−$141$0
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,5991.4¢0¢$0−$22−$0.64
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes1,50015¢0¢$0−$225$0
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No1,23111.3¢0¢$0−$139−$78
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No1,00095¢0¢$0−$950$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?No76816.1¢0¢$0−$124+$135
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?No54887.6¢0¢$0−$480−$1,648
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Yes50011¢0¢$0−$55−$37
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes5006.2¢0¢$0−$31−$1.16
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?No50076.6¢0¢$0−$383$0
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes50077¢0¢$0−$385$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Yes50019¢0¢$0−$95$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes35013¢0¢$0−$46$0
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No31519.8¢0¢$0−$62$0
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Yes21115¢0¢$0−$32$0
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?No20056¢0¢$0−$112$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No17423.3¢0¢$0−$41−$0.46
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No10956¢0¢$0−$61$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No4920¢0¢$0−$9.73−$4.61

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?80¢1,500$1,20048%62
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?80¢500$40048%62
BUY NoWill the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?84.6¢500$42348%62
BUY YesWill the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?5.2¢2,000$10448%62
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84¢2,000$1,68048%62
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?53¢1,500$79548%62
SELL NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85¢2,900$2,46548%62
BUY YesWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?94.4¢2,000$1,88848%62
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?10¢3,000$30048%62
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?31.9¢300$9648%62
BUY NoWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?99.2¢2,000$1,98448%62
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83¢1,000$83048%62
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?98.7¢353$34848%62
BUY NoDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?91¢29$2648%62
BUY YesWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?93.7¢150$14148%62
BUY NoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?96.7¢500$48448%62
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?74¢2,000$1,48048%62
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?99.2¢40$4048%62
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?99.7¢19$1948%62
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?99.6¢558$55648%62