| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 11.3k | 55.3¢ | 85.9¢ | $9,719 | +$3,462 | +$4,855 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 9,929 | 95.4¢ | 95.6¢ | $9,487 | +$11 | +$1,039 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 7,156 | 85.1¢ | 87.6¢ | $6,272 | +$180 | +$610 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 7,600 | 85.6¢ | 81.8¢ | $6,216 | −$292 | −$3,822 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 6,804 | 85.2¢ | 88¢ | $5,987 | +$192 | +$2,173 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 6,000 | 91.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $5,430 | −$50 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 5,958 | 88.9¢ | 88.5¢ | $5,273 | −$23 | −$1,395 | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,433 | 88.5¢ | 95.5¢ | $5,189 | +$382 | +$42 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 6,000 | 79.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $4,890 | +$114 | +$3,201 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 6,500 | 82.7¢ | 74.5¢ | $4,843 | −$532 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 7,104 | 59.2¢ | 63.5¢ | $4,511 | +$308 | +$372 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 4,500 | 97.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $4,372 | −$5.24 | +$26 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 5,235 | 82.3¢ | 82.5¢ | $4,319 | +$9.92 | +$431 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 6,562 | 67.7¢ | 64.5¢ | $4,233 | −$207 | −$176 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,192 | 81.5¢ | 81.5¢ | $4,232 | −$0.78 | −$1,788 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 7,203 | 58.1¢ | 57.5¢ | $4,142 | −$40 | +$257 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 4,500 | 91.6¢ | 91.5¢ | $4,118 | −$7.04 | +$127 | |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 4,292 | 78.1¢ | 95.9¢ | $4,114 | +$763 | +$124 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 4,158 | 93.1¢ | 90.5¢ | $3,763 | −$107 | +$255 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 4,000 | 77.1¢ | 91.8¢ | $3,670 | +$588 | +$57 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 4,000 | 91.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $3,620 | −$40 | +$90 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 5,639 | 50.3¢ | 58¢ | $3,268 | +$428 | +$215 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 3,889 | 71.2¢ | 81.5¢ | $3,169 | +$402 | +$883 | |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 4,238 | 69.2¢ | 74.5¢ | $3,157 | +$224 | $0 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 3,077 | 95.5¢ | 95.9¢ | $2,951 | +$13 | +$70 | |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,009 | 91.4¢ | 96.5¢ | $2,904 | +$152 | +$12 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 3,121 | 76.1¢ | 88.5¢ | $2,762 | +$386 | +$344 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3,830 | 75.4¢ | 71.4¢ | $2,733 | −$154 | −$116 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 3,286 | 79¢ | 78¢ | $2,563 | −$32 | −$167 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,757 | 92.9¢ | 92.5¢ | $2,550 | −$12 | +$649 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 2,632 | 91.1¢ | 96.5¢ | $2,539 | +$141 | +$877 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 2,576 | 82.3¢ | 97.3¢ | $2,505 | +$386 | +$248 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,036 | 77.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $2,475 | +$119 | +$9.45 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 2,500 | 94.3¢ | 96.2¢ | $2,405 | +$47 | +$1,709 | |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | No | 2,532 | 76.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $2,393 | +$465 | +$32 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,498 | 84.9¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,387 | +$267 | −$177 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,348 | 67.4¢ | 68.5¢ | $2,294 | +$37 | −$455 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 2,697 | 83.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $2,279 | +$29 | −$404 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 2,398 | 88.8¢ | 93.5¢ | $2,242 | +$112 | +$530 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 3,129 | 69.5¢ | 70.5¢ | $2,206 | +$31 | +$82 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 15.8k | 26.2¢ | 13.5¢ | $2,135 | −$2,015 | −$4,005 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 3,303 | 55.6¢ | 62.5¢ | $2,065 | +$228 | −$198 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,990 | 49.4¢ | 51.7¢ | $2,063 | +$91 | +$2,565 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,050 | 90.6¢ | 97.7¢ | $2,001 | +$145 | +$14 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 2,198 | 90.7¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,989 | −$4.01 | −$41 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | No | 2,235 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $1,944 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 4,624 | 36.1¢ | 42¢ | $1,942 | +$273 | +$295 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 2,097 | 85¢ | 89.1¢ | $1,867 | +$85 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 1,983 | 85.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,854 | +$157 | −$1,561 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,842 | 64.5¢ | 63.5¢ | $1,805 | −$28 | −$4.21 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,213 | 80¢ | 79.5¢ | $1,759 | −$12 | +$28 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Yes | 2,324 | 76.1¢ | 75.5¢ | $1,754 | −$15 | −$0.02 | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 2,000 | 86¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,710 | −$10 | +$30 | |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | 1,751 | 87.2¢ | 95.4¢ | $1,671 | +$143 | +$240 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 2,000 | 83¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,630 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 2,068 | 73.6¢ | 78¢ | $1,613 | +$92 | −$15 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,811 | 73¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,512 | +$190 | +$86 | |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 1,564 | 92.1¢ | 95.4¢ | $1,492 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 2,000 | 74¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,470 | −$10 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 2,248 | 64.4¢ | 65¢ | $1,461 | +$13 | +$198 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 1,701 | 88.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,454 | −$46 | +$29 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 1,500 | 96.8¢ | 96.7¢ | $1,451 | −$1.50 | +$163 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 1,508 | 84.6¢ | 95¢ | $1,433 | +$156 | +$176 | |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | No | 1,483 | 88.6¢ | 95.7¢ | $1,419 | +$106 | +$246 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 2,002 | 65.2¢ | 69.4¢ | $1,389 | +$85 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 1,456 | 92.6¢ | 95¢ | $1,383 | +$35 | −$25 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,524 | 85.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,379 | +$76 | −$921 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 5,000 | 32.2¢ | 27.5¢ | $1,375 | −$237 | +$2.51 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,930 | 71.5¢ | 71¢ | $1,370 | −$9.65 | +$0.35 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,389 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1,346 | +$13 | +$120 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,600 | 82.8¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,336 | +$12 | −$1,014 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,500 | 79.1¢ | 87¢ | $1,305 | +$118 | −$15 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 3,066 | 57.2¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,273 | −$483 | −$6.90 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 3,531 | 40.5¢ | 35.5¢ | $1,253 | −$178 | +$95 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 1,300 | 91.1¢ | 96.2¢ | $1,250 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,322 | 90.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,249 | +$51 | +$35 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,268 | 97.3¢ | 97.5¢ | $1,236 | +$1.90 | +$0.46 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 1,550 | 81.4¢ | 78.6¢ | $1,219 | −$43 | −$2.94 | |
| Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 1,331 | 89.7¢ | 90.2¢ | $1,201 | +$6.85 | +$0.02 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 1,267 | 91.5¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,198 | +$38 | +$55 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 1,899 | 67.4¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,187 | −$93 | −$46 | |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1,209 | 89¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,142 | +$67 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 1,195 | 91.5¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,129 | +$36 | +$78 | |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | No | 1,156 | 86.6¢ | 96.4¢ | $1,115 | +$113 | +$239 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 1,471 | 72.7¢ | 74¢ | $1,088 | +$20 | +$0.39 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 2,510 | 55.3¢ | 42.5¢ | $1,067 | −$322 | −$477 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | Yes | 4,000 | 26.8¢ | 26.5¢ | $1,060 | −$13 | −$17 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 1,525 | 60.4¢ | 69.5¢ | $1,060 | +$138 | +$90 | |
| Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | No | 1,089 | 80.7¢ | 96.2¢ | $1,047 | +$168 | +$7.14 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | No | 1,217 | 76¢ | 83¢ | $1,010 | +$85 | +$17 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5,030 | 41.9¢ | 19.9¢ | $999 | −$1,109 | −$186 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 1,105 | 85.8¢ | 89.5¢ | $989 | +$41 | +$171 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 1,028 | 82.8¢ | 96.2¢ | $988 | +$137 | +$123 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 996 | 96.6¢ | 97.5¢ | $971 | +$8.72 | +$911 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 92¢ | 95.9¢ | $959 | +$39 | +$96 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 89.5¢ | 95.5¢ | $955 | +$60 | $0 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 1,000 | 94¢ | 94.5¢ | $945 | +$5.00 | +$182 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 94¢ | 94.5¢ | $945 | +$5.00 | +$564 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 1,032 | 84.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $934 | +$64 | +$502 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,000 | 92¢ | 92.5¢ | $925 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
