Traders/Rank #549

HerrieDavis

0xac4…bf1e

SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+PoliticsSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$372kvol $34.1M

PnL 30d+$55.2kgains $124k · losses $69.3k

PnL 7d+$50.3kwin rate 7d 66.2%

Win rate65.6%adj 65.0% · 30d 65.6%

Open value$387kcash n/a

Positions2,000 / 9,267open / all-time

Max drawdown−7.4%of equity peak

Account age6molast trade 7m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$459kbelow peak −$612Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

78/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale80

Adjusted win rateraw 65.6% · shrunk toward 50%63

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity93

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? · Yesopen+$22.2k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesopen+$12.8k Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Noopen+$11.2k Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? · Yesopen+$10.0k Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesopen+$9,599

Worst markets

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed−$9,656 Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? · Yesopen−$7,810 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? · Yesopen−$7,570 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? · Noopen−$6,870 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? · Noopen−$6,570

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	17.3k	50.7¢	93.5¢	$16.2k	+$7,410	+$367	3mo
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	18.0k	50.7¢	83.5¢	$15.1k	+$5,917	−$10	3mo
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	12.6k	66.6¢	82¢	$10.4k	+$1,949	−$175	3mo
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	18.5k	47.9¢	55.3¢	$10.2k	+$1,373	+$1,121	3mo
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	10.2k	92.6¢	96.7¢	$9,826	+$416	−$2,271	26d 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	10.2k	93.3¢	96.1¢	$9,814	+$287	+$5,010	26d 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	10.1k	90¢	92.5¢	$9,349	+$248	−$185	3mo
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	11.3k	83.5¢	81.8¢	$9,274	−$192	−$2,313	ended
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	9,491	63.6¢	79.5¢	$7,545	+$1,509	−$48	23d 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	14.3k	45.7¢	47.4¢	$6,802	+$246	+$3,416	3mo
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	10,000	62.4¢	64.5¢	$6,450	+$205	+$1,183	19d 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	8,434	69.8¢	74.5¢	$6,283	+$400	−$1,219	3mo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	6,784	86.9¢	88.5¢	$6,003	+$108	−$634	7d 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	6,211	93.4¢	95.8¢	$5,947	+$147	−$353	3mo
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	6,456	68.8¢	85¢	$5,488	+$1,049	−$153	22d 1h
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	5,616	86.1¢	97.5¢	$5,475	+$640	−$1,131	3mo
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	12.0k	32.6¢	43.8¢	$5,270	+$1,341	+$1,173	19d 1h
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	No	6,072	39.7¢	86¢	$5,222	+$2,814	+$349	3mo
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	6,864	62.7¢	64¢	$4,393	+$88	−$125	3mo
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	4,335	92.8¢	99.6¢	$4,317	+$293	+$5.82	6mo
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	6,613	44.2¢	63.5¢	$4,199	+$1,278	$0	26d 1h
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	7,183	66.4¢	57.5¢	$4,130	−$638	+$142	26d 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	4,767	80.3¢	82.2¢	$3,916	+$89	−$640	25mo
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	3,798	93.7¢	97.4¢	$3,698	+$139	+$2.01	3mo
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	3,926	84¢	93.5¢	$3,671	+$373	−$1,554	3mo
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	8,627	41¢	42.1¢	$3,627	+$91	−$48	ended
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	3,661	74.4¢	94.5¢	$3,459	+$736	−$5.56	7d 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	17.9k	6.6¢	18¢	$3,209	+$2,033	+$1,655	25mo
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	3,489	48¢	80.5¢	$2,808	+$1,134	+$62	22d 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	3,200	64.3¢	87¢	$2,784	+$726	−$133	3mo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	5,392	41.8¢	51.6¢	$2,782	+$530	+$3,830	3mo
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	3,451	80.1¢	79.5¢	$2,743	−$20	−$944	ended
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	3,198	70¢	85.5¢	$2,735	+$496	−$42	3mo
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	3,010	78.9¢	88.4¢	$2,661	+$285	−$1,419	15mo
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	3,680	61.8¢	71.2¢	$2,620	+$346	−$660	3mo
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	No	2,641	84.6¢	98.6¢	$2,603	+$369	−$905	3mo
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	2,543	84.5¢	95.9¢	$2,438	+$289	+$33	3mo
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	2,497	66.4¢	94.5¢	$2,359	+$701	+$180	23d 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	3,026	47.9¢	75.5¢	$2,285	+$835	+$274	3mo
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	2,553	82¢	89¢	$2,272	+$179	$0	26d 1h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	3,673	52.7¢	61.5¢	$2,259	+$325	−$6.10	26d 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	2,875	53.8¢	77.5¢	$2,228	+$682	−$3,108	3mo
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	3,351	54.8¢	63.1¢	$2,113	+$275	−$101	3mo
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	2,514	21¢	76.9¢	$1,932	+$1,403	+$156	3mo
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	2,029	79.9¢	93.5¢	$1,897	+$276	$0	3mo
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Yes	2,264	79¢	81.5¢	$1,845	+$57	−$49	4mo
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	1,864	87.9¢	92.1¢	$1,717	+$77	−$48	3mo
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12.0k	34.6¢	14¢	$1,675	−$2,469	+$800	3mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	2,213	79.9¢	73.5¢	$1,627	−$142	−$2,162	3mo
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	6,805	17¢	22.5¢	$1,531	+$373	$0	27mo
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	2,762	24¢	54.7¢	$1,509	+$848	+$247	3mo
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,747	4.1¢	85.1¢	$1,487	+$1,416	+$11.4k	ended
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	1,511	81.2¢	95.4¢	$1,441	+$213	−$105	3mo
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	3,627	8.7¢	39.7¢	$1,440	+$1,125	+$2,492	3mo
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	1,832	78¢	78.5¢	$1,438	+$9.16	−$126	9mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10.5k	17.6¢	13.5¢	$1,420	−$432	+$2,720	ended
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	1,431	88.5¢	95.8¢	$1,370	+$104	−$9.05	3mo
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	1,789	69.9¢	76.5¢	$1,369	+$119	−$43	3mo
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	3,096	51.4¢	43.5¢	$1,347	−$245	−$147	3mo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	1,485	80.8¢	90.5¢	$1,343	+$144	−$411	53d 1h
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	1,908	52.6¢	69.5¢	$1,326	+$323	+$142	15mo
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	1,464	79.8¢	90.5¢	$1,325	+$157	−$1,215	23d 1h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	1,583	49.7¢	82¢	$1,298	+$511	−$9.93	22d 1h
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No	1,370	87.2¢	94.5¢	$1,295	+$100	−$783	6mo
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	1,377	88¢	91¢	$1,253	+$41	$0	3mo
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	1,544	31.8¢	80.5¢	$1,243	+$751	+$38	23d 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	1,342	85¢	92.5¢	$1,242	+$101	+$231	3mo
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	1,303	88¢	94.4¢	$1,230	+$83	+$5.32	3mo
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	5,448	19.8¢	22.5¢	$1,226	+$145	+$56	9mo
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	1,669	71¢	70.5¢	$1,177	−$8.34	$0	26d 1h
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	1,357	64.5¢	86.3¢	$1,171	+$295	$0	6mo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	1,310	78.1¢	88¢	$1,153	+$130	+$281	3mo
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	9,537	22.3¢	11.9¢	$1,135	−$994	+$352	3mo
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	13.3k	13.6¢	8.5¢	$1,127	−$680	+$23	26d 1h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	1,358	52.9¢	81.5¢	$1,107	+$388	−$8.92	3mo
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	5,877	2¢	18.5¢	$1,087	+$971	+$521	6mo
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	3,891	47.2¢	27.5¢	$1,070	−$765	+$5.72	7d 1h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	2,317	32.5¢	44¢	$1,019	+$266	+$29	52d 1h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	1,616	52.8¢	61.5¢	$994	+$141	$0	26d 1h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Yes	4,215	29.9¢	23.5¢	$991	−$269	$0	3mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	13.5k	4.8¢	7.2¢	$977	+$331	+$5,116	25mo
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	1,301	80.4¢	73.5¢	$956	−$90	−$207	51d 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	2,091	29.8¢	45.5¢	$951	+$329	+$1,272	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	2,126	40¢	44.5¢	$946	+$96	$0	26d 1h
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	1,504	59.9¢	61¢	$917	+$17	+$110	16d 1h
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	No	1,303	69¢	68.5¢	$892	−$6.28	+$623	16d 1h
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	1,215	45.7¢	73¢	$887	+$332	+$9.01	3mo
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	5,492	53¢	16¢	$879	−$2,030	−$239	3mo
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	1,619	80.9¢	54.2¢	$876	−$433	−$302	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	1,316	49¢	65.5¢	$862	+$217	−$53	26d 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.3k	7.1¢	8.1¢	$829	+$96	+$2,546	25mo
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6,628	0.8¢	12.5¢	$828	+$777	+$49	6mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	2,521	39.2¢	32.5¢	$819	−$168	$0	6mo
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	8,836	31.2¢	9.3¢	$817	−$1,935	+$227	15mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	6,139	6.9¢	13.2¢	$807	+$387	+$1,892	25mo
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	17.8k	12.7¢	4.5¢	$792	−$1,469	+$12.7k	3mo
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	No	3,510	27¢	22¢	$772	−$176	+$22	2d 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5,123	1.7¢	15.1¢	$771	+$686	+$887	25mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	5,033	17.5¢	15.2¢	$763	−$118	+$1,024	25mo
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	1,748	42.1¢	42.5¢	$743	+$6.99	+$25	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
7m ago	SELL Yes	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3.2¢	500	$16	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL Yes	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	33¢	93	$31	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL No	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	50¢	20	$9.93	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL Yes	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL Yes	Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL No	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	22¢	55	$12	66%	78	Sharp
7m ago	SELL Yes	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	2.6¢	69	$1.78	66%	78	Sharp
28m ago	SELL Yes	Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	0.4¢	54	$0.22	66%	78	Sharp
29m ago	SELL Yes	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	66%	78	Sharp
33m ago	SELL No	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	91¢	200	$182	66%	78	Sharp
33m ago	SELL Yes	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	23¢	5	$1.15	66%	78	Sharp
39m ago	SELL Yes	Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	66%	78	Sharp
40m ago	SELL Yes	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	2.4¢	200	$4.79	66%	78	Sharp
42m ago	SELL Yes	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	0.1¢	345	$0.35	66%	78	Sharp
43m ago	SELL Yes	Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	0.4¢	222	$0.89	66%	78	Sharp
44m ago	SELL Yes	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	2.2¢	50	$1.10	66%	78	Sharp
44m ago	SELL Yes	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	199	$0.20	66%	78	Sharp
44m ago	SELL No	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	51.5¢	40	$21	66%	78	Sharp
44m ago	SELL Yes	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	66%	78	Sharp
50m ago	SELL No	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	91¢	500	$455	66%	78	Sharp