PnL all-time+$1,958vol $3.65M
PnL 30d+$14.8kgains $4,639 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$3,076win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate60.7%adj 56.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$260kcash n/a
Positions10 / 38open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 2mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$151kbelow peak −$4,676Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47
Adjusted win rateraw 60.7% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable53
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity78
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Worst markets
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$9,946Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$8,922Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$6,463Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$3,207Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$2,806
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 263k | 39.5¢ | 95.6¢ | $251k | +$147k | −$382 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 3,384 | 38.7¢ | 97.2¢ | $3,289 | +$1,979 | +$4,551 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 2,352 | 49.9¢ | 97.6¢ | $2,295 | +$1,121 | +$0.59 | |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 105k | 1.4¢ | 1.7¢ | $1,734 | +$251 | +$482 | |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 341k | 0.9¢ | 0.5¢ | $1,534 | −$1,534 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 2,780 | 40.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $29 | −$1,095 | −$87 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 99 | 7.9¢ | 20.3¢ | $20 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 2 | 82.8¢ | 99.3¢ | $1.99 | +$0.33 | +$2,904 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 19.1k | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,729 | −$77 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 171 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$1.07 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s