sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,199

DancewithRisk

0xb0f…ce0b
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+1y+OtherCryptoPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$24.0kvol $2.73M
PnL 30d+$8,993gains $16.7k · losses $10.2k
PnL 7d+$3,268win rate 7d 61.1%
Win rate69.7%adj 68.6% · 30d 61.0%
Open value$24.9kcash n/a
Positions55 / 388open / all-time
Max drawdown−11.5%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$38.9kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

76/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 69.7% · shrunk toward 50%71
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity89

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Fed rate hike in 2026? · Noclosed+$4,498Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? · Noclosed+$3,306SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? · Downclosed+$2,947Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yesclosed+$2,357Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? · Noclosed+$1,759

Worst markets

Ethereum all time high before 2026? · Noclosed−$3,476Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Noclosed−$2,931Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$2,715Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noclosed−$2,307Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? · Yesopen−$1,984

Open positions · 55

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Yes4,89949¢69.7¢$3,412+$1,012+$339
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Yes3,97935.2¢68.2¢$2,714+$1,314+$4.45
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?No3,13981.2¢76.4¢$2,398−$150+$27
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes11.0k16.5¢19.5¢$2,138+$333+$1,324
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?Yes7,49521.4¢25¢$1,874+$268+$141
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes3,69442.5¢43.5¢$1,607+$37+$51
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?No2,68349.6¢51¢$1,368+$36+$1.11
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?Yes5,98614.5¢16.2¢$970+$99+$49
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?Yes4,10819.3¢21.8¢$893+$102+$435
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No2,54832¢31.5¢$803−$12−$58
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No1,17468.5¢64.2¢$754−$51+$0.10
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes7,7769.5¢9.5¢$739−$1.40+$125
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?No69477.9¢79.9¢$554+$14$0
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No72872.3¢73.4¢$534+$8.09+$20
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes66676¢77.3¢$515+$8.92+$124
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?Yes1,33524.2¢38¢$506+$183+$14
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?Yes3,2577.6¢10.2¢$331+$84+$46
Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?Yes46363¢63.5¢$294+$2.35+$67
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes9,6063.3¢2.7¢$255−$67−$50
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Yes98232¢19.9¢$195−$120−$1.26
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes8,21911.8¢1.9¢$156−$810−$44
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes2,0396.6¢7.5¢$152+$16+$267
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes4,3295.1¢3.4¢$147−$72−$275
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes50054¢29.2¢$146−$124$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?No14385.7¢87.2¢$125+$2.07+$3.57
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?Yes3,4993¢3.1¢$108+$4.63−$292
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?No15565¢69¢$107+$6.20$0
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes91210.5¢11.5¢$105+$9.10+$450
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes44039¢22.5¢$99−$73$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.2T by October 31?No17571.2¢55.5¢$97−$28$0
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes1,00811.4¢9.5¢$96−$19−$63
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?No16556.9¢53¢$87−$6.36$0
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?No18739.9¢43.5¢$81+$6.64$0
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes1,0056.5¢6.5¢$65−$0.20+$128
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?No29654.2¢19.5¢$58−$103+$21
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes8067¢56.5¢$45−$8.40$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes1,6271.8¢2.7¢$44+$14$0
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?Yes1,4835.5¢2.9¢$44−$37+$2.96
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?No6545.3¢66¢$43+$14$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes2,10174.4¢2¢$42−$1,521−$463
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?No16153.9¢20¢$32−$55−$9.83
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?Yes6005.5¢5¢$30−$2.87+$69
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?No2591.6¢98.3¢$24+$1.65+$33
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)?Yes3130.3¢4.8¢$15+$14+$0.90
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes1886.1¢7¢$13+$1.55+$313
California Recall Election Reform PropositionYes2048¢61¢$12+$2.60$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?Yes11512¢9¢$10−$3.45$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in April 2027 (ET)?Yes4130.2¢1.1¢$4.33+$3.41$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in March 2027 (ET)?Yes3390.4¢1.2¢$3.90+$2.68$0
Will Discord’s market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1520.4¢2.2¢$3.35+$2.74$0
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes531.5¢4.7¢$2.45+$1.66$0
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T?No245¢84.5¢$1.64+$0.77+$1.28
Will SB Energy's market cap be at least $125B at market close on IPO day?Yes1580.2¢0.3¢$0.47+$0.16$0
Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes92.4¢3¢$0.26+$0.05+$4.73
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day?Yes70.2¢0.6¢$0.04+$0.03$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?17.5¢156$2770%76Sharp
BUY NoPredict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?48.7¢583$28470%76Sharp
BUY YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?3.1¢1,238$3870%76Sharp
BUY YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?8.3¢430$3670%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?6.3¢1,500$9570%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?7.5¢182$1470%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?6.5¢1,857$12170%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?1.8¢1,627$3070%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?16.6¢7,748$1,28870%76Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?25¢147$3770%76Sharp
BUY YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?14¢2,580$36170%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?26¢219$5770%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?57.7¢270$15670%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?59.2¢1,266$75070%76Sharp
SELL NoWill Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?94.2¢193$18270%76Sharp
BUY YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?8.8¢660$5870%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?30.7¢651$20070%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?26¢185$4870%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?26¢365$9570%76Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?26.2¢940$24670%76Sharp