Traders/Unranked

0xb88…81b3

PnL 10k+PoliticsCultureSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$34.6kvol $146M

PnL 30d−$22.9kgains $7,351 · losses $16.0k

PnL 7d−$439win rate 7d 40.0%

Win rate44.6%adj 44.8% · 30d 47.2%

Open value$78.9kcash n/a

Positions135 / 1,539open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age9molast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$66.4kbelow peak −$138kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65

Adjusted win rateraw 44.6% · shrunk toward 50%12

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d89

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$12.2k Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$7,733 Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yesclosed+$7,186 Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen+$6,792 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? · Yesclosed+$6,481

Worst markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yesopen−$33.0k Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? · Yesclosed−$17.9k US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yesopen−$15.2k Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$13.4k Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? · Noclosed−$7,982

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	120k	22.4¢	17.5¢	$21.1k	−$5,858	−$1,515	3mo
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	583k	7.8¢	2.3¢	$13.1k	−$32.3k	−$717	3mo
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	73.7k	33.4¢	11¢	$8,106	−$16.5k	+$1,327	3mo
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	39.8k	32.3¢	17.5¢	$6,958	−$5,873	+$17	3mo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	54.3k	17.3¢	10.5¢	$5,699	−$3,672	+$17	15mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	29.7k	40.1¢	17¢	$5,055	−$6,856	+$16	3mo
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	99.4k	5.3¢	2.9¢	$2,832	−$2,466	+$7,532	3mo
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	57.7k	17.5¢	4.5¢	$2,599	−$7,537	+$907	3mo
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	44.4k	12.3¢	4.7¢	$2,065	−$3,382	−$78	3mo
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	20.0k	12.4¢	7.5¢	$1,499	−$984	+$171	9mo
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	12.6k	21.6¢	8.5¢	$1,074	−$1,659	+$268	3mo
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	186k	0.5¢	0.5¢	$1,021	−$7.42	+$76	25mo
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	8,515	18.5¢	10.5¢	$894	−$685	−$77	3mo
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11.7k	13.7¢	4.5¢	$528	−$1,083	−$18	3mo
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	9,612	22.5¢	4.5¢	$433	−$1,733	+$35	3mo
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	6,666	8.7¢	5.5¢	$367	−$211	+$284	3mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	213k	0.5¢	0.2¢	$320	−$811	+$8.22	25mo
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	1,851	31.9¢	16.5¢	$305	−$285	$0	3mo
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	12.5k	0.6¢	2.3¢	$287	+$207	+$3,374	3mo
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	189k	0.9¢	0.2¢	$284	−$1,370	+$80	25mo
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	4,695	13¢	5.5¢	$258	−$354	+$72	3mo
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6,904	10.2¢	3.2¢	$221	−$484	+$11	3mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	Yes	453	46.9¢	47.5¢	$215	+$2.47	$0	8mo
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	4,677	11.7¢	3.8¢	$178	−$368	−$3.03	3mo
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Yes	4,684	17.4¢	3.8¢	$176	−$640	+$107	3mo
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	116k	0.6¢	0.2¢	$174	−$487	+$17	25mo
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	750	25.1¢	22.5¢	$169	−$20	+$1.03	3mo
US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	6,303	7.5¢	2.6¢	$161	−$312	+$287	3mo
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	4,767	4.7¢	3.3¢	$155	−$69	+$13	3mo
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	15.4k	0.2¢	0.8¢	$123	+$91	+$1.82	12mo
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	3,071	26.5¢	3.9¢	$118	−$695	+$20	3mo
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	1,035	23.1¢	11¢	$114	−$125	+$0.15	3mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	44.0k	0.8¢	0.3¢	$110	−$261	+$20	25mo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,666	8.5¢	6.5¢	$108	−$33	+$261	3mo
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	1,456	0.3¢	7.4¢	$108	+$103	+$5.28	12mo
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	32.6k	0.5¢	0.3¢	$98	−$56	+$210	3mo
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	771	26¢	11.9¢	$92	−$108	+$0.44	3mo
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	59.9k	0.8¢	0.2¢	$90	−$370	+$96	25mo
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	17.8k	0.8¢	0.5¢	$80	−$62	+$140	25mo
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	158k	0.4¢	0.1¢	$79	−$494	+$64	25mo
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,109	10.8¢	7¢	$78	−$42	+$66	3mo
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	30.0k	0.7¢	0.3¢	$75	−$133	+$19	25mo
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	20.0k	0.7¢	0.4¢	$70	−$77	+$6.06	25mo
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	137k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$68	−$869	+$22	25mo
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	808	19.4¢	7.5¢	$61	−$96	+$0.39	3mo
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	24.2k	0.2¢	0.3¢	$61	+$12	+$0.01	12mo
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	116k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$58	−$786	+$55	25mo
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	48.8k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$49	−$51	+$2.75	15d 10h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	32.4k	0.6¢	0.2¢	$49	−$146	+$11	25mo
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	96.1k	0.6¢	0.1¢	$48	−$515	+$39	25mo
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	23.2k	0.2¢	0.2¢	$46	+$0.18	$0	12mo
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	9,171	0.3¢	0.5¢	$46	+$17	+$1.67	12mo
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	45.4k	0.3¢	0.1¢	$45	−$104	+$1.51	15d 10h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Yes	3,146	7.1¢	1.4¢	$42	−$182	+$24	3mo
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	1,000	29.9¢	4.2¢	$42	−$258	$0	3mo
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,932	7.4¢	2¢	$38	−$105	+$62	3mo
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	966	8.3¢	3.9¢	$37	−$43	+$3.49	3mo
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	70.9k	0.9¢	0.1¢	$35	−$598	+$52	25mo
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	69.3k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$35	−$469	+$7.78	25mo
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	12.8k	0.9¢	0.3¢	$32	−$83	+$50	25mo
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3,742	0.8¢	0.9¢	$32	+$0.04	+$8.92	25mo
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	8,949	0.7¢	0.4¢	$31	−$31	+$96	25mo
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	20.2k	0.8¢	0.2¢	$30	−$141	+$37	25mo
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	17.5k	0.8¢	0.2¢	$26	−$111	+$2.29	25mo
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	24.5k	0.2¢	0.1¢	$24	−$20	+$44	15d 10h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	24.3k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$24	−$147	+$66	25mo
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	1,819	10.5¢	1.3¢	$24	−$168	−$115	3mo
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?	Yes	248	12.4¢	9.5¢	$24	−$7.09	+$19	3mo
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	44.2k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$22	−$292	+$10	25mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14.4k	1¢	0.2¢	$22	−$116	$0	25mo
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	444	5¢	4.6¢	$20	−$2.00	$0	6mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	555	27.8¢	3.4¢	$19	−$136	$0	18d 10h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	12.2k	0.9¢	0.2¢	$18	−$90	+$226	25mo
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,918	0.4¢	0.4¢	$16	+$1.58	$0	12mo
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	30.0k	0.6¢	0.1¢	$15	−$165	+$13	25mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Yes	731	16¢	2.1¢	$15	−$102	+$6.20	3mo
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	29.6k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$15	−$188	+$66	25mo
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	468	6¢	3.1¢	$15	−$14	+$8.91	3mo
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	5,631	0.7¢	0.3¢	$14	−$25	+$17	25mo
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5,555	0.9¢	0.3¢	$14	−$36	+$5.87	25mo
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	1,189	0.2¢	1.2¢	$14	+$11	+$0.78	12mo
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	4,110	0.2¢	0.3¢	$12	+$3.58	$0	12mo
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	2,222	5.6¢	0.5¢	$12	−$111	$0	19d 10h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	7,777	0.6¢	0.2¢	$12	−$35	+$32	25mo
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	7,777	0.7¢	0.2¢	$12	−$43	+$30	25mo
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	200	15¢	4.5¢	$9.00	−$21	$0	3mo
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5,870	0.7¢	0.2¢	$8.80	−$35	+$1,827	25mo
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	246	7¢	3.3¢	$8.13	−$9.12	+$3.33	3mo
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	14.7k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$7.36	−$94	+$39	25mo
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	Yes	210	4¢	3.4¢	$7.03	−$1.36	$0	3mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	12.2k	0.6¢	0.1¢	$6.11	−$73	+$8.18	25mo
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?	Yes	20	24.4¢	28¢	$5.60	+$0.71	$0	25mo
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	11.1k	0.7¢	0.1¢	$5.56	−$72	+$16	25mo
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3,196	0.7¢	0.2¢	$4.79	−$18	+$8.16	25mo
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	8,922	0.8¢	0.1¢	$4.46	−$67	+$30	25mo
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	123	6¢	3.5¢	$4.26	−$3.15	$0	3mo
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,555	0.7¢	0.2¢	$2.33	−$7.89	+$6,800	25mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,444	0.6¢	0.1¢	$2.22	−$24	$0	25mo
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	26	39¢	8¢	$2.05	−$7.95	$0	3mo
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,341	0.5¢	0.2¢	$2.01	−$4.69	+$9.77	25mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	19.9k	$20	45%	44
3d ago	BUY No	Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	119k	$119	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	189k	$189	45%	44
3d ago	SELL Yes	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	16¢	2,222	$356	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	11.0k	$11	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	11.7k	$12	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	20.0k	$20	45%	44
3d ago	BUY No	Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	31.7k	$32	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	30.0k	$30	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	51.1k	$51	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	13.1k	$13	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.2¢	11.9k	$19	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.2¢	5,000	$10	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	5,263	$5.26	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.2¢	769	$1.52	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.2¢	3,559	$6.89	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	46.5k	$47	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	45.5k	$45	45%	44
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0.1¢	51.3k	$51	45%	44