sharpside
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0xb94…9bbe

0xb94…9bbe
WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1,069vol $127k
PnL 30d+$626gains $777 · losses $31
PnL 7d−$32win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate78.6%adj 66.7% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$5,405cash n/a
Positions32 / 60open / all-time
Max drawdown−17.9%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,290below peak −$192Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale43
Adjusted win rateraw 78.6% · shrunk toward 50%67
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable59
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d93
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity82

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 32

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes4,17024¢19.5¢$813−$188$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes1,08749.9¢61.5¢$669+$126+$65
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No1,01649.2¢47¢$477−$23$0
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No47242.4¢95¢$448+$248$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,90717.2¢14.7¢$426−$74$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes35825¢86.3¢$309+$219$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?No28869.4¢90¢$259+$59$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No27272¢69.5¢$189−$6.81$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No15291.4¢93¢$141+$2.40+$5.82
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?No14466.5¢90.5¢$131+$35$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No20151¢63.5¢$128+$25$0
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No17768¢71.5¢$126+$6.18$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes17864¢70.5¢$125+$12$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,0219.4¢10.4¢$106+$9.70$0
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Yes11487.5¢89¢$102+$1.74$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes11771¢86.5¢$101+$18$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No11190¢89.5¢$99−$0.56$0
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes30765.1¢32¢$98−$102$0
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo9882¢96.3¢$94+$14$0
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes16162.1¢57¢$92−$8.15$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2,8193.5¢3.1¢$86−$14$0
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?No8372.5¢91¢$75+$15$0
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?No7679.1¢92.5¢$70+$10$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes7679¢90.5¢$69+$8.73$0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No5780¢92.5¢$53+$7.11$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo5582¢90.5¢$50+$4.66$0
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?No7752¢64¢$49+$9.23$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?No1664¢64¢$10$0$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes9144¢10.5¢$9.55−$30−$7.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No96.2k0.2¢0¢$0−$198+$168
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?No1508¢0¢$0−$12$0
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?No1473¢0¢$0−$9.89−$0.11

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?49.2¢1,016$50079%46
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?64¢16$1079%46
BUY NoNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?91.4¢152$13979%46
BUY NoWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?90¢111$10079%46
BUY YesWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?87.5¢114$10079%46
SELL Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House64¢535$34379%46
BUY NoWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?68¢177$12079%46
SELL NoNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?83¢146$12179%46
BUY NoNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?79¢146$11579%46
SELL NoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?93¢124$11579%46
BUY NoWill Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?8¢150$1279%46
SELL YesPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?3.6¢118$4.2579%46
SELL NoWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?3.3¢225$7.4379%46
BUY NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?72¢272$19679%46
BUY YesWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3.5¢2,819$10079%46
BUY YesWill Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?71¢117$8379%46
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17.2¢2,907$50079%46
BUY YesWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?62.1¢161$10079%46
BUY YesWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?24¢4,167$1,00079%46
BUY YesWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?77¢584$45079%46