sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,431

KARACAC

0xbb5…7bfc
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherSportCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$15.3kvol $3.33M
PnL 30d+$411gains $731 · losses $62
PnL 7d+$2,644win rate 7d 88.2%
Win rate70.2%adj 69.4% · 30d 80.0%
Open value$3,549cash n/a
Positions795 / 3,100open / all-time
Max drawdown−17.1%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$15.0kbelow peak −$1,369Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

75/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale60
Adjusted win rateraw 70.2% · shrunk toward 50%74
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity83

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No3,34894.5¢94.5¢$3,164+$1.27+$6.51
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?No15167.1¢95.5¢$144+$43−$10
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?No13080.1¢53.4¢$69−$35+$1.04
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?Yes29328.9¢14.5¢$43−$42−$0.04
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?No3990¢91.9¢$36+$0.72$0
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?No20062¢4.6¢$9.20−$115$0
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes16858.8¢5.1¢$8.51−$90−$0.31
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No1053¢84.1¢$8.40+$3.10$0
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes8034¢7¢$5.63−$22+$0.42
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes12517.2¢4.5¢$5.56−$16+$1.64
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?Yes4042.3¢13¢$5.18−$12−$6.86
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?No479¢93.3¢$3.85+$0.59+$0.07
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No467¢98.8¢$3.74+$1.20$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No450¢96.2¢$3.70+$1.78+$23
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?No445¢97.8¢$3.49+$1.88+$14
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?Yes1013.4¢32.5¢$3.32+$1.95+$0.12
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No371¢98.9¢$3.23+$0.91$0
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes424¢76¢$3.23+$2.21+$42
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?No457.6¢89.5¢$3.22+$1.15+$13
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?No364¢100¢$3.06+$1.10+$1.38
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?No328.9¢89¢$2.66+$1.80−$0.54
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?No369¢89¢$2.51+$0.56+$48
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?No438.4¢55¢$2.32+$0.70$0
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes4020¢4.8¢$1.90−$6.10$0
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?No172.5¢93¢$1.29+$0.28−$42
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes449¢29¢$1.23−$0.85+$19
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No1215¢9.5¢$1.14−$0.66$0
100kt meteor strike in 2026?Yes283.2¢3.9¢$1.11+$0.20$0
Celonis IPO before 2027?No170¢97.1¢$1.07+$0.30$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No168.7¢92¢$1.02+$0.26+$64
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Yes236.1¢32¢$0.70−$0.09+$23
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes522¢8¢$0.40−$0.70$0
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No271¢12.5¢$0.30−$1.40+$6.07
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes317¢11¢$0.28−$0.15$0
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes516¢4.4¢$0.20−$0.53+$0.03
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?No29¢7.9¢$0.18−$0.02$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Yes441¢4.5¢$0.18−$1.42+$0.79
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes313¢6.3¢$0.16−$0.17+$27
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?Yes537¢3.5¢$0.16−$1.54+$0.02
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?Yes214¢6.5¢$0.15−$0.17$0
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes122¢8.5¢$0.11−$0.17+$0.36
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Yes129.7¢8.5¢$0.09−$0.23+$0.91
Canva IPO before 2027?Yes440¢2.5¢$0.09−$1.37−$24
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?No580.5¢1.5¢$0.07−$3.82+$1.60
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Yes126¢4.5¢$0.06−$0.29$0
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?Yes27¢2.5¢$0.05−$0.09$0
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes176¢3.2¢$0.05−$1.06−$2.15
Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $7.00 by end of February?Yes36319.4¢0¢$0−$70+$49
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No36213.7¢0¢$0−$49+$2.26
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No36112.5¢0¢$0−$45+$45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?Yes35833.2¢0¢$0−$119+$12
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?Yes35211.3¢0¢$0−$40−$5.01
Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes35219.3¢0¢$0−$68−$3.35
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?No35010.2¢0¢$0−$36+$129
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No3489.7¢0¢$0−$34$0
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No34626.6¢0¢$0−$92−$3.84
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $295?No3427.4¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?Yes34130.2¢0¢$0−$103+$24
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?Yes33615.6¢0¢$0−$52+$18
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?Yes33640.1¢0¢$0−$135−$15
Will Atvara win Supernova 2026?No33437.9¢0¢$0−$126$0
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $205?Yes33412.6¢0¢$0−$42$0
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?Yes33336.9¢0¢$0−$123+$22
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of February?Yes33121.1¢0¢$0−$70+$1.32
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 2 above $400?No33113.2¢0¢$0−$44$0
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?Yes33010¢0¢$0−$33$0
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $270?No33021.3¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 13?No33019.8¢0¢$0−$65$0
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $185?No32810.3¢0¢$0−$34$0
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 9 above $133?Yes3285.8¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?No32634.1¢0¢$0−$111+$62
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No32413.1¢0¢$0−$43−$0.22
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?Yes32421.8¢0¢$0−$71$0
Will the US strike Somalia next?No32014.8¢0¢$0−$47+$24
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes31810.8¢0¢$0−$34+$48
Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes31741.1¢0¢$0−$130+$78
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?Yes31610.8¢0¢$0−$34+$9.38
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 7?No31629.2¢0¢$0−$92−$0.98
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 21?Yes31511.8¢0¢$0−$37−$1.90
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No31531.6¢0¢$0−$100+$11
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?No31452.9¢0¢$0−$166+$44
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 9 above $680?Yes31321.6¢0¢$0−$68+$1.60
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?Yes30929.8¢0¢$0−$92+$38
Will Carson Schwesinger be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?No3047.3¢0¢$0−$22+$0.25
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?Yes30338.7¢0¢$0−$117+$7.56
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?No30139.6¢0¢$0−$119−$28
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No30136.2¢0¢$0−$109+$33
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?No30012.1¢0¢$0−$36−$59
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?Yes30032.7¢0¢$0−$98+$69
Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 40 and 69 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No3009¢0¢$0−$27+$10
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?No30038.3¢0¢$0−$115+$15
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $265?Yes30011¢0¢$0−$33+$0.82
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No30013.6¢0¢$0−$41+$120
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes30029.4¢0¢$0−$88+$4.30
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes30022.2¢0¢$0−$67+$64
Will Mike Gibney get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?No3003.3¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $210?Yes30019.3¢0¢$0−$58$0
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $155?Yes3008.3¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 9 above $330?Yes30019¢0¢$0−$57$0
Over $2M committed to the Foresee public sale?Yes3009.3¢0¢$0−$28$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?95¢2,800$2,66070%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?92¢543$50070%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?96.7¢2,175$2,10470%75Sharp
BUY Team LiquidDota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner86¢26$2270%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?90¢2,072$1,86570%75Sharp
SELL MOUZCounter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B72¢10$7.2070%75Sharp
SELL NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?97¢5$4.8570%75Sharp
SELL NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?97¢5$4.8570%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?61¢5$3.0570%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?97¢19$1870%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?97¢5$4.8570%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?95.3¢1$1.0070%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?95.3¢1$1.0070%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?95.3¢1$1.0070%75Sharp
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?95.3¢1$1.0070%75Sharp
SELL NoMicrostrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?77¢21$1670%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?96.4¢5$4.8270%75Sharp
BUY NoUS forces enter Iran by March 14?95¢5$4.7570%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?96.6¢5$4.8370%75Sharp
BUY NoWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?96.6¢5$4.8370%75Sharp