PnL all-time+$13.3kvol $902k
PnL 30d−$1,368gains $196 · losses $84
PnL 7d−$91win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate53.6%adj 53.4% · 30d 80.0%
Open value$3,031cash n/a
Positions22 / 300open / all-time
Max drawdown−33.6%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 16d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$13.6kbelow peak −$283Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
57/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 53.6% · shrunk toward 50%34
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d44
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? · Yesclosed+$2,664Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? · Yesclosed+$2,485Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$2,118Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$2,004Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yesclosed+$1,681
Worst markets
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed−$2,429Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yesopen−$1,447Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? · Yesopen−$1,420Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yesclosed−$1,336Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? · Yesclosed−$1,289
Open positions · 4
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1,538 | 41.7¢ | 87.5¢ | $1,345 | +$704 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,136 | 88¢ | 100¢ | $1,136 | +$136 | −$6.00 | |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | Yes | 430 | 90¢ | 83¢ | $357 | −$30 | −$229 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1,538 | 39¢ | 12.5¢ | $192 | −$408 | $0 |
Recent trades
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