PnL all-time−$1,995vol $113k
PnL 30d−$3,494gains $2,132 · losses $6,056
PnL 7d−$2,337win rate 7d 37.5%
Win rate77.5%adj 71.4% · 30d 63.3%
Open value$11.3kcash n/a
Positions12 / 87open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 16h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$2,187below peak −$3,707Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
36/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 77.5% · shrunk toward 50%79
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Noclosed+$667Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$510Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Yesclosed+$374US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$332Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yesclosed+$194
Worst markets
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$3,232Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,174Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$495Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yesopen−$410Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$327
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,069 | 96.3¢ | 97.5¢ | $3,965 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 2,194 | 93.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $2,074 | +$19 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,443 | 75.3¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,118 | +$31 | −$281 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,546 | 62¢ | 66.5¢ | $1,028 | +$70 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 70.7¢ | 74¢ | $740 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 60.1¢ | 62.5¢ | $625 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 650 | 87¢ | 88.6¢ | $576 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 557 | 82.2¢ | 80.5¢ | $448 | −$9.50 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | Yes | 445 | 94.7¢ | 90.9¢ | $405 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | No | 224 | 77.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $218 | +$45 | +$3.15 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 100 | 67¢ | 88.5¢ | $89 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | Yes | 796 | 50.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$400 | −$9.95 |
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