| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 14.0k | 50¢ | 51.6¢ | $7,217 | +$217 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 14.0k | 50¢ | 48.4¢ | $6,783 | −$217 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026? | No | 913 | 71.8¢ | 81.5¢ | $744 | +$89 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | Yes | 567 | 40¢ | 75.5¢ | $428 | +$201 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | No | 697 | 58¢ | 59.5¢ | $415 | +$10 | −$1.15 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | Yes | 697 | 44.4¢ | 48¢ | $335 | +$25 | +$1.60 | |
| Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? | Yes | 363 | 68.9¢ | 78.5¢ | $285 | +$35 | +$86 | |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | No | 332 | 64.2¢ | 81¢ | $269 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31? | No | 201 | 93¢ | 96¢ | $193 | +$5.92 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | No | 252 | 70.5¢ | 72.5¢ | $183 | +$5.14 | $0 | |
| Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? | Yes | 249 | 79.8¢ | 71.5¢ | $178 | −$21 | +$2.99 | |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | Yes | 214 | 62.9¢ | 76.5¢ | $163 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 250 | 46.5¢ | 63.5¢ | $159 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 357 | 42.1¢ | 40¢ | $142 | −$7.62 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 201 | 64.7¢ | 70.8¢ | $142 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 359 | 37.6¢ | 38.5¢ | $138 | +$3.21 | +$6.66 | |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? | Yes | 154 | 79¢ | 87.5¢ | $135 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 310 | 36.6¢ | 42.9¢ | $133 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 439 | 50.2¢ | 29.9¢ | $131 | −$89 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 238 | 47¢ | 51.5¢ | $123 | +$11 | +$2.26 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | No | 138 | 72¢ | 87¢ | $120 | +$21 | +$19 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 200 | 45¢ | 57.5¢ | $115 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 158 | 55.1¢ | 68¢ | $107 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92? | Yes | 105 | 94.5¢ | 97.2¢ | $102 | +$2.83 | −$44 | |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90? | Yes | 100 | 95.7¢ | 96.5¢ | $96 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 236 | 31.3¢ | 40.5¢ | $96 | +$22 | +$14 | |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 137 | 58¢ | 69¢ | $95 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 310 | 16.3¢ | 30.3¢ | $94 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 127 | 53.3¢ | 71.5¢ | $91 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 180 | 34.8¢ | 44¢ | $79 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 180 | 38¢ | 42.5¢ | $77 | +$8.10 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 126 | 31.5¢ | 57.5¢ | $72 | +$33 | +$34 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 84 | 73¢ | 82.5¢ | $69 | +$7.93 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 342 | 14.4¢ | 20.1¢ | $69 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 180 | 55.9¢ | 38¢ | $68 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will 2026 rank between 10th and 12th among the highest domestic box office years? | Yes | 201 | 10.1¢ | 33.5¢ | $67 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027? | No | 80 | 81¢ | 80.5¢ | $64 | −$0.40 | +$1.20 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 84 | 69¢ | 74.5¢ | $63 | +$4.62 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 87 | 13¢ | 66¢ | $57 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 180 | 19¢ | 31¢ | $56 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 66 | 43.3¢ | 84¢ | $55 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 202 | 39.7¢ | 25.5¢ | $51 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 120 | 36.2¢ | 34.5¢ | $41 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years? | Yes | 80 | 28¢ | 50¢ | $40 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027? | No | 39 | 96.9¢ | 98.7¢ | $38 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? | No | 45 | 76.4¢ | 82.5¢ | $37 | +$2.73 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 42 | 30.6¢ | 87¢ | $37 | +$24 | +$23 | |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 123 | 36.6¢ | 27.5¢ | $34 | −$11 | −$7.57 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 26M in October? | No | 34 | 94.8¢ | 97.2¢ | $33 | +$0.79 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 256 | 27.7¢ | 11.5¢ | $29 | −$41 | −$0.21 | |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | Yes | 231 | 9.2¢ | 12.5¢ | $29 | +$7.52 | +$35 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 30 | 87.8¢ | 87.1¢ | $26 | −$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? | Yes | 227 | 5¢ | 10.8¢ | $24 | +$13 | +$12 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 200 | 16¢ | 12¢ | $24 | −$8.10 | $0 | |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026? | Yes | 133 | 27¢ | 17.5¢ | $23 | −$13 | −$9.87 | |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 58 | 24.7¢ | 37.5¢ | $22 | +$7.41 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 70 | 29.6¢ | 31¢ | $22 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 70 | 30.8¢ | 30.5¢ | $21 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 58 | 39.3¢ | 36¢ | $21 | −$1.92 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 46 | 26.6¢ | 43.5¢ | $20 | +$7.77 | $0 | |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 21 | 92¢ | 93.1¢ | $20 | +$0.22 | $0 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 80 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $19 | +$2.40 | +$1.40 | |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 70¢ | 92.5¢ | $19 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 138 | 15¢ | 13.2¢ | $18 | −$2.57 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 47 | 29.7¢ | 37.5¢ | $18 | +$3.69 | +$0.54 | |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | Yes | 20 | 50¢ | 86.5¢ | $17 | +$7.30 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of December 2026? | Yes | 20 | 82¢ | 85.5¢ | $17 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 46 | 40.1¢ | 36¢ | $17 | −$1.87 | +$1.48 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 57 | 17¢ | 28.5¢ | $16 | +$6.50 | +$1.61 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 17 | 83.6¢ | 94.3¢ | $16 | +$1.81 | +$18 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 158 | 15.3¢ | 10.1¢ | $16 | −$8.21 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 85 | 6¢ | 17¢ | $14 | +$9.37 | $0 | |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 135 | 13.8¢ | 9.5¢ | $13 | −$5.76 | −$7.28 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 37.1¢ | 57.6¢ | $12 | +$4.10 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 45 | 26¢ | 25.5¢ | $11 | −$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94? | No | 205 | 6.8¢ | 5.2¢ | $11 | −$3.28 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | Yes | 37 | 29.6¢ | 27.6¢ | $10 | −$0.74 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 80 | 19¢ | 12.5¢ | $10 | −$5.20 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 46 | 14.4¢ | 19.8¢ | $9.11 | +$2.47 | +$0.27 | |
| Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December? | No | 10 | 85.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $8.95 | +$0.40 | +$17 | |
| Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 8 | 99¢ | 97.9¢ | $7.83 | −$0.09 | $0 | |
| Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31? | Yes | 78 | 2¢ | 9.5¢ | $7.40 | +$5.84 | $0 | |
| Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? | No | 10 | 46¢ | 67.5¢ | $7.01 | +$2.23 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 96 | 10.4¢ | 6.5¢ | $6.19 | −$3.79 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | 1.1¢ | $5.50 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 242 | 19.3¢ | 2.2¢ | $5.20 | −$41 | $0 | |
| Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 132 | 4.9¢ | 3.9¢ | $5.07 | −$1.42 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | Yes | 30 | 12¢ | 15.1¢ | $4.53 | +$0.93 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 83 | 6¢ | 5.4¢ | $4.44 | −$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? | Yes | 154 | 4.1¢ | 2.8¢ | $4.32 | −$2.01 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 20 | 18¢ | 21.5¢ | $4.30 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October? | No | 5 | 79¢ | 86¢ | $4.30 | +$0.35 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 46 | 37.7¢ | 8¢ | $3.68 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Sui reach $1.60 before 2027? | Yes | 10 | 54¢ | 34¢ | $3.51 | −$2.07 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 19¢ | 17¢ | $3.40 | −$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 33¢ | 16.5¢ | $3.30 | −$3.30 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.50 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 1¢ | 5.7¢ | $2.83 | +$2.34 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 29¢ | 13¢ | $2.60 | −$3.20 | $0 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | Yes | 15 | 65.7¢ | 16¢ | $2.40 | −$7.45 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 207 | 18.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $2.27 | −$36 | $0 | |