| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 615 | 79.1¢ | 86.1¢ | $529 | +$42 | +$35 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1,456 | 14¢ | 12.5¢ | $182 | −$21 | +$165 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 250 | 40¢ | 48.5¢ | $121 | +$21 | +$215 | |
| Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | Yes | 117 | 85¢ | 98¢ | $115 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 12? | No | 149 | 67¢ | 75.5¢ | $112 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 115 | 41¢ | 95¢ | $109 | +$62 | +$3.24 | |
| Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | No | 111 | 90¢ | 98¢ | $109 | +$8.82 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | No | 108 | 92¢ | 100¢ | $108 | +$8.59 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 12? | No | 178 | 56¢ | 56¢ | $100 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 150 | 42.1¢ | 62.5¢ | $94 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 111 | 65.9¢ | 58.5¢ | $65 | −$8.19 | −$2.97 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on October 11? | Yes | 61 | 63¢ | 100¢ | $61 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 12? | No | 62 | 95¢ | 94.6¢ | $59 | −$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 286 | 13¢ | 19¢ | $54 | +$17 | +$179 | |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | 60 | 89¢ | 87.2¢ | $52 | −$1.08 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 60 | 52.1¢ | 85.5¢ | $51 | +$20 | −$2.11 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 59 | 3.3¢ | 83.5¢ | $49 | +$47 | +$29 | |
| Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | No | 101 | 48¢ | 48¢ | $48 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12? | No | 72 | 75¢ | 65.5¢ | $47 | −$6.84 | $0 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 40 | 85.5¢ | 97.7¢ | $39 | +$4.88 | $0 | |
| Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland? | No | 342 | 5¢ | 10.9¢ | $37 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 68 | 17.3¢ | 52¢ | $35 | +$24 | +$143 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 40 | 83¢ | 82.5¢ | $33 | −$0.20 | −$19 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 34 | 32.3¢ | 95.6¢ | $32 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? | No | 35 | 95¢ | 81.3¢ | $28 | −$4.79 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 11? | No | 27 | 75¢ | 100¢ | $27 | +$6.74 | $0 | |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 40 | 1.4¢ | 65¢ | $26 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 25 | 14.5¢ | 82.5¢ | $21 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9? | Yes | 20 | 0¢ | 100¢ | $20 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 20 | 89¢ | 99.7¢ | $20 | +$2.14 | $0 | |
| Will Napoli win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | No | 20 | 87¢ | 98¢ | $20 | +$2.20 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 20 | 84¢ | 96.5¢ | $19 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 20 | 86¢ | 96.3¢ | $19 | +$2.06 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat? | No | 20 | 92¢ | 95.5¢ | $19 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 20 | 57¢ | 93¢ | $19 | +$7.20 | −$0.39 | |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | No | 20 | 59¢ | 92¢ | $18 | +$6.60 | $0 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 20 | 85¢ | 91¢ | $18 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 20 | 88¢ | 90.5¢ | $18 | +$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 430 | 1.8¢ | 4.2¢ | $18 | +$10 | +$9.64 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 20 | 74¢ | 89¢ | $18 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 60,000 and 65,000? | No | 20 | 68¢ | 88.4¢ | $18 | +$4.07 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 30 | 28.7¢ | 58.5¢ | $18 | +$8.95 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? | No | 20 | 88¢ | 79.5¢ | $16 | −$1.70 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 12? | No | 30 | 49¢ | 53¢ | $16 | +$1.19 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | Yes | 17 | 83¢ | 87.5¢ | $15 | +$0.77 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat? | No | 20 | 81¢ | 73.5¢ | $15 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 12? | Yes | 54 | 33¢ | 26.5¢ | $14 | −$3.51 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 5.1¢ | 69.5¢ | $14 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion? | No | 20 | 68¢ | 64.5¢ | $13 | −$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | No | 20 | 62¢ | 62.5¢ | $13 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 20 | 56¢ | 61.5¢ | $12 | +$1.10 | $0 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 20 | 38¢ | 60.5¢ | $12 | +$4.50 | +$5.10 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 80 | 0.7¢ | 13.1¢ | $10 | +$9.91 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 12? | Yes | 38 | 29¢ | 26.5¢ | $10 | −$0.95 | $0 | |
| Will SNSD win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | No | 11 | 76¢ | 91.1¢ | $10 | +$1.66 | $0 | |
| Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Yes | 12 | 1.5¢ | 78.5¢ | $9.78 | +$9.59 | $0 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 10 | 76¢ | 91.5¢ | $9.15 | +$1.55 | $0 | |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? | No | 10 | 45.9¢ | 91.2¢ | $9.14 | +$4.54 | $0 | |
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | Yes | 20 | 5.9¢ | 45.5¢ | $9.10 | +$7.91 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | No | 10 | 84¢ | 90.5¢ | $9.05 | +$0.65 | $0 | |
| Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 20 | 1.6¢ | 43.3¢ | $8.66 | +$8.33 | $0 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 80 | 0.7¢ | 10.4¢ | $8.28 | +$7.75 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 20 | 18¢ | 40.5¢ | $8.10 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 20 | 0.6¢ | 40¢ | $7.99 | +$7.87 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? | No | 10 | 60¢ | 78.5¢ | $7.98 | +$1.88 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on October 12? | Yes | 84 | 40¢ | 9.5¢ | $7.98 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | No | 10 | 64¢ | 79.5¢ | $7.95 | +$1.55 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | No | 48 | 5¢ | 16.5¢ | $7.95 | +$5.55 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12? | No | 9 | 89¢ | 82.7¢ | $7.67 | −$0.58 | $0 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 10 | 84¢ | 76.5¢ | $7.65 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? | Yes | 10 | 10.7¢ | 71.5¢ | $7.15 | +$6.08 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 20 | 1.9¢ | 35.7¢ | $7.13 | +$6.76 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | No | 20 | 87.6¢ | 35.6¢ | $7.11 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 285 | 2.3¢ | 2.4¢ | $6.83 | +$0.33 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on October 13? | Yes | 39 | 27¢ | 17.5¢ | $6.83 | −$3.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 10 | 56¢ | 67.5¢ | $6.75 | +$1.15 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat? | No | 7 | 77¢ | 97.1¢ | $6.39 | +$1.32 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 20 | 9.3¢ | 29.9¢ | $5.97 | +$4.10 | $0 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 43 | 2.1¢ | 13.5¢ | $5.75 | +$4.86 | +$99 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | Yes | 52 | 20¢ | 10.5¢ | $5.46 | −$4.94 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 12? | No | 14 | 37¢ | 36.5¢ | $5.11 | −$0.07 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 28¢ | 24.5¢ | $4.90 | −$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 10 | 39¢ | 41.5¢ | $4.15 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 22¢ | 20.5¢ | $4.10 | −$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 10 | 44¢ | 39¢ | $3.90 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 20 | 9.3¢ | 18.5¢ | $3.70 | +$1.83 | $0 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 80 | 0.7¢ | 4.6¢ | $3.64 | +$3.11 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 12? | No | 5 | 53¢ | 69¢ | $3.45 | +$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20 | 0.7¢ | 15.9¢ | $3.17 | +$3.04 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20 | 1.2¢ | 15.5¢ | $3.16 | +$2.90 | +$4.50 | |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 10 | 24¢ | 29.5¢ | $2.95 | +$0.55 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | 14.5¢ | $2.90 | +$2.32 | $0 | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 20 | 0.6¢ | 14.1¢ | $2.81 | +$2.69 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? | No | 10 | 35¢ | 27.5¢ | $2.75 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 13? | Yes | 10 | 29¢ | 26.5¢ | $2.65 | −$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 285 | 2.3¢ | 0.9¢ | $2.56 | −$3.94 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 80 | 0.7¢ | 3.2¢ | $2.56 | +$2.03 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 30 | 13¢ | 8.5¢ | $2.55 | −$1.36 | +$22 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | No | 20 | 11¢ | 12.5¢ | $2.50 | +$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 20 | 2.3¢ | 12.5¢ | $2.50 | +$2.03 | $0 | |
