| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 30.0k | 20.3¢ | 83.5¢ | $25.1k | +$19.0k | +$4,017 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 16.4k | 90.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $15.4k | +$452 | $0 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 15.0k | 95.8¢ | 96.3¢ | $14.4k | +$73 | +$558 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 15.0k | 92.8¢ | 95.7¢ | $14.3k | +$433 | +$1,430 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 15.0k | 92.6¢ | 94¢ | $14.1k | +$206 | +$24 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | 12.9k | 92.4¢ | 96.5¢ | $12.4k | +$528 | +$220 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 9,975 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $9,426 | +$254 | +$3,701 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 8,002 | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $7,998 | +$196 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 8,000 | 87.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $7,560 | +$592 | −$284 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,497 | 96.1¢ | 96.3¢ | $7,216 | +$11 | +$15 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | 8,000 | 87.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $7,160 | +$157 | −$103 | |
| Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? | Yes | 6,967 | 97.5¢ | 99¢ | $6,897 | +$105 | $0 | |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? | No | 6,679 | 90¢ | 95¢ | $6,345 | +$336 | +$5.79 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 6,002 | 94.7¢ | 96.5¢ | $5,792 | +$108 | $0 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 5,000 | 96¢ | 97.4¢ | $4,868 | +$68 | +$92 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 30.0k | 20.9¢ | 15.5¢ | $4,650 | −$1,631 | +$2,880 | |
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 4,736 | 93.1¢ | 96.4¢ | $4,566 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 5,000 | 84.7¢ | 85.7¢ | $4,283 | +$47 | +$5,461 | |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 4,419 | 87.3¢ | 95.4¢ | $4,215 | +$356 | +$1.65 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | 3,941 | 48¢ | 95¢ | $3,744 | +$1,852 | +$450 | |
| Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? | No | 3,551 | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $3,550 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | No | 3,437 | 95.1¢ | 96.9¢ | $3,331 | +$62 | +$290 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,480 | 95.9¢ | 94.4¢ | $3,283 | −$53 | $0 | |
| Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? | Yes | 3,296 | 95.5¢ | 98.6¢ | $3,248 | +$101 | $0 | |
| Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 3,128 | 93.4¢ | 98.8¢ | $3,090 | +$167 | +$26 | |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | No | 3,096 | 94¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,959 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | No | 3,000 | 97.4¢ | 97.5¢ | $2,923 | +$1.52 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | No | 3,006 | 93.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,870 | +$65 | $0 | |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 3,000 | 93¢ | 95.4¢ | $2,861 | +$71 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | No | 3,000 | 94¢ | 94¢ | $2,820 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | No | 2,832 | 98¢ | 98.3¢ | $2,782 | +$7.09 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 3,000 | 89.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $2,715 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | No | 3,000 | 89.7¢ | 90¢ | $2,700 | +$9.76 | $0 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 3,008 | 86.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,692 | +$83 | $0 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 3,000 | 81.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $2,565 | +$115 | +$41 | |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,499 | 82.7¢ | 98.6¢ | $2,463 | +$395 | +$927 | |
| Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,437 | 95.3¢ | 92.5¢ | $2,254 | −$69 | $0 | |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | No | 2,146 | 92.1¢ | 97¢ | $2,081 | +$103 | +$23 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | No | 2,091 | 95.2¢ | 95.7¢ | $2,001 | +$8.98 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 2,116 | 93.5¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,979 | −$0.34 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,925 | 95.9¢ | 98.9¢ | $1,903 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | No | 2,006 | 87¢ | 90¢ | $1,805 | +$59 | +$24 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,953 | 94.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,786 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,813 | 95.4¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,765 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? | No | 1,742 | 97.5¢ | 99.2¢ | $1,728 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,725 | 95.1¢ | 98.4¢ | $1,697 | +$57 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,606 | 94.5¢ | 95.6¢ | $1,535 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? | No | 1,580 | 94.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,493 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Steffen Krach be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | No | 1,430 | 99.7¢ | 99.8¢ | $1,426 | +$1.39 | $0 | |
| Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026? | No | 1,417 | 95.4¢ | 96.8¢ | $1,372 | +$20 | +$5.10 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,500 | 91¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,358 | −$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 1,344 | 93¢ | 95.6¢ | $1,285 | +$35 | +$6.86 | |
| Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,318 | 90¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,245 | +$59 | +$97 | |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,292 | 93¢ | 95.6¢ | $1,235 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | 40.5¢ | $1,215 | +$1,079 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,206 | 95.3¢ | 97.5¢ | $1,175 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 1,149 | 99.5¢ | 99.6¢ | $1,144 | +$1.02 | −$87 | |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 1,168 | 91.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $1,134 | +$61 | +$33 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | No | 1,033 | 95¢ | 97.7¢ | $1,008 | +$28 | $0 | |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | No | 1,000 | 93¢ | 96.4¢ | $964 | +$34 | +$40 | |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $960 | +$9.51 | $0 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 93¢ | 95.5¢ | $955 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 93¢ | 93.5¢ | $935 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? | No | 935 | 94.1¢ | 97.5¢ | $912 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 93¢ | 91¢ | $910 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 84¢ | 84.5¢ | $845 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? | No | 880 | 91.9¢ | 95¢ | $836 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | 851 | 94.4¢ | 95¢ | $808 | +$4.68 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | 26.5¢ | $795 | +$659 | $0 | |
| Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 798 | 94.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $783 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 777 | 95.5¢ | 96.9¢ | $752 | +$10 | $0 | |
| New pandemic before 2028? | No | 783 | 76¢ | 85¢ | $665 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $555 | +$419 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? | Yes | 541 | 92.2¢ | 95.5¢ | $516 | +$18 | $0 | |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | No | 536 | 89.8¢ | 95.5¢ | $512 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026? | Yes | 521 | 95.9¢ | 98.3¢ | $512 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? | No | 596 | 76.6¢ | 84¢ | $501 | +$44 | +$1.05 | |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 500 | 99.3¢ | 99.7¢ | $498 | +$2.06 | −$993 | |
| Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil? | No | 500 | 96¢ | 99.7¢ | $498 | +$18 | $0 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 514 | 95¢ | 96.9¢ | $498 | +$9.76 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | 500 | 98.8¢ | 98.6¢ | $493 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | No | 500 | 94¢ | 98.5¢ | $493 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31? | No | 501 | 96.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $491 | +$7.43 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 500 | 96.1¢ | 97.9¢ | $490 | +$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? | No | 500 | 95¢ | 97.5¢ | $487 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | No | 500 | 93.5¢ | 97.3¢ | $486 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 89.9¢ | 96.7¢ | $484 | +$34 | +$1,795 | |
| Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 500 | 94.5¢ | 95.7¢ | $479 | +$6.18 | $0 | |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? | No | 488 | 92.3¢ | 98¢ | $478 | +$28 | +$0.68 | |
| Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? | No | 500 | 92.9¢ | 94.5¢ | $473 | +$7.98 | $0 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | 500 | 93.2¢ | 94.2¢ | $471 | +$5.18 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 465 | 95.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $455 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026? | No | 431 | 96.9¢ | 97.6¢ | $421 | +$2.84 | +$0.87 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | 500 | 84.5¢ | 77.5¢ | $387 | −$35 | −$13 | |
| Will Ilhan Omar be deported in 2026? | No | 380 | 91.8¢ | 97.2¢ | $369 | +$20 | +$7.92 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027? | No | 500 | 76¢ | 72.5¢ | $363 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 355 | 91.5¢ | 97.8¢ | $348 | +$22 | +$8.01 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 319 | 95¢ | 96.8¢ | $308 | +$5.74 | $0 | |
| Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31? | No | 303 | 96.9¢ | 98.4¢ | $298 | +$4.49 | $0 | |
| Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026? | No | 307 | 93.5¢ | 95.5¢ | $293 | +$6.03 | $0 | |